Well the NHL is finally talking about putting a second team in Southern Ontario. Daly made the point that an objection from the Leafs would not stand in the way of such a move and MLSE responded by saying they would not stand in the way of such a move if it was shown to be good for the NHL and MLSE.
Daly also went out of his way to throw cold water on the idea of that team being located in Hamilton. His argument against Hamilton was that Copps Coliseum is not ready NHL ready. That argument is weak since it is the most NHL ready of any arena in the area and the cost to upgrade it to NHL standards is less then the cost to build a new arena.
The real anti-Hamilton stance is based on four points. First, Hamilton is the location that would most interfere with Buffalo’s fan base by drawing fans from the Golden Horseshoe. The second point is that Hamilton is not a known city south of the border and it would be another tough sell in the US. A minor third point is Hamilton’s friendliness with Balsillie and that a move into Copps may well require Balsillie as the owner. The fourth and major point is that Hamilton does nothing to increase revenues for MLSE.
Hamilton is a natural rival to Toronto so an NHL team there will not harm MLSE revenue. That however is not the point. The point is that a Hamilton franchise will do nothing to increase MLSE revenue. A one time territorial payment regardless of size is small potatoes.
What MLSE wants and will work out with the NHL is a strong new revenue stream in return for its support of the second franchise. Some mention a second NHL team playing out of the ACC. The problem with that is that the Leafs, Raptors, and a new NHL team all have overlapping seasons and that would not leave enough dates for other events.
MLSE thinks big and what would make more sense to them is a new development of condos, retail, restaurants, etc. surrounding a second GTA arena where the second NHL team would be the main tenant. That type of development would provide the immediate and long term revenue that MLSE expects and would increase MLSE and freeze out potential competition from another arena in the area.
Leading potential locations for this type of development are Downsview and Vaughan. Neither would be a threat to the Buffalo market and both would accessible to the GTA market. The NHL’s goal will be to maximize the payment for this franchise and the largest bids will come for a second team in the GTA. The second team will also likely be called Toronto since that has some name recognition in the U.S.
None of this is to say that a team in Hamilton or Kitchener/Waterloo could not succeed. The problem with those locations is that they will not maximize the revenue for the NHL, they will not add revenue for MLSE, and they would likely involve Jim Balsillie. Balsillie has burned many bridges with the NHL and it is difficult to imagine that he will be willing to work with MLSE and the governors to find a way into the NHL.
Another advantage to this type of deal is that it would work for a relocation of one of the southern U.S. teams that are currently in trouble. A troubled franchise has to be moved quickly so that local support is not further eroded. In this scenario the ACC could be used as a temporary home for a team while the new arena is being built.
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Saturday, October 24, 2009
Raps Wrap Pre-Season
The Raps finished their pre-season with another loss and another game where Triano could not use his regular rotation. Turkoglu suffered a minor ankle sprain which limited him to 14 minutes and Evans is still out with his injury. The overall preseason for the team was pretty dismal, but then again the Leafs had a hot preseason and that did not translate well when the regular games began. The team will also benefit by having almost a week off before the first game.
Despite not having the full team to work with, some of Triano’s rotation is starting to come together. The most interesting aspect is how he plans to use DeRozan. The thought is to let the rookie start and then determine his playing time based on how well he does. Instead of giving him minutes later in each half he will start but will likely not see action as the first half and the game wind down. Initially he may only play 15 minutes a game.
This approach makes sense. It lets DeRozan get playing time with the first unit and allows him to play against the league’s best. It also saves him from having to be on the court at crunch time when a veteran like Wright is more useful. As long as the first unit plays well and keeps the team in the game, this approach will let DeRozan earn more minutes as the season goes on. His confidence should also grow by playing at a less intense time of the game. A very positive early sign is DeRozan’s desire to drive to the basket and ability to draw fouls.
With Evans on the shelf, the first players come off the bench will be Wright, Jack and Johnson. If Johnson can provide efficient energy minutes along with solid defense and rebounding, Nesterovic’s minutes will be limited to games where they need him to bump against some of the bigger centers. Evans will become a fan favorite and his toughness will be missed early. Once he joins the rotation the Raptors will have a nice diverse set of skills to be able to bring into the game depending on who is on the court for the other team.
From the early look of things the team will need Belinelli to provide outside shooting off the bench. The Raptors were terrible from the 3 point line during the preseason and need this to turn around to provide more room for the skilled big men.
The only item we haven’t touched on so far is Chris Bosh and he will be the story for the team this year. Physically he seems to be coming into form and finished with a strong 27 point, 14 rebound game. He realizes that he needs to take his game up a notch this year and I am confident he will start out that way.
If the team plays well and settles into a playoff position record wise they should improve as the season goes on. If on the other hand they start off slow there is a real concern that the team could implode by Christmas. If they are well below .500 after 20 games the Bosh free agency talk will escalate and it will be hard for him, and the team, to focus.
What has to be remembered is that this is largely a new team with a coach that is starting his first full season as an NBA head coach. While I like the pieces Colangelo has put together the team is entering a high risk year that could go either way.
The schedule does not do them any favors. They play 8 of their first 12 games on the road and their first two home games are against eastern conference powers Cleveland and Orlando. A 5-7 start through that stretch would be great and allow them to get on a roll when the schedule becomes easier in December.
Maybe I’m still shell shocked by the start of the Leafs this year, but I see them struggling towards a 40-42 season which should let them sneak into the final playoff spot. Let’s hope that I’m wrong and they push for 5 seed. For that to happen, the big three of Bosh, Bargnani and Turkoglu will have to mesh into a top front court quickly.
Despite not having the full team to work with, some of Triano’s rotation is starting to come together. The most interesting aspect is how he plans to use DeRozan. The thought is to let the rookie start and then determine his playing time based on how well he does. Instead of giving him minutes later in each half he will start but will likely not see action as the first half and the game wind down. Initially he may only play 15 minutes a game.
This approach makes sense. It lets DeRozan get playing time with the first unit and allows him to play against the league’s best. It also saves him from having to be on the court at crunch time when a veteran like Wright is more useful. As long as the first unit plays well and keeps the team in the game, this approach will let DeRozan earn more minutes as the season goes on. His confidence should also grow by playing at a less intense time of the game. A very positive early sign is DeRozan’s desire to drive to the basket and ability to draw fouls.
With Evans on the shelf, the first players come off the bench will be Wright, Jack and Johnson. If Johnson can provide efficient energy minutes along with solid defense and rebounding, Nesterovic’s minutes will be limited to games where they need him to bump against some of the bigger centers. Evans will become a fan favorite and his toughness will be missed early. Once he joins the rotation the Raptors will have a nice diverse set of skills to be able to bring into the game depending on who is on the court for the other team.
From the early look of things the team will need Belinelli to provide outside shooting off the bench. The Raptors were terrible from the 3 point line during the preseason and need this to turn around to provide more room for the skilled big men.
The only item we haven’t touched on so far is Chris Bosh and he will be the story for the team this year. Physically he seems to be coming into form and finished with a strong 27 point, 14 rebound game. He realizes that he needs to take his game up a notch this year and I am confident he will start out that way.
If the team plays well and settles into a playoff position record wise they should improve as the season goes on. If on the other hand they start off slow there is a real concern that the team could implode by Christmas. If they are well below .500 after 20 games the Bosh free agency talk will escalate and it will be hard for him, and the team, to focus.
What has to be remembered is that this is largely a new team with a coach that is starting his first full season as an NBA head coach. While I like the pieces Colangelo has put together the team is entering a high risk year that could go either way.
The schedule does not do them any favors. They play 8 of their first 12 games on the road and their first two home games are against eastern conference powers Cleveland and Orlando. A 5-7 start through that stretch would be great and allow them to get on a roll when the schedule becomes easier in December.
Maybe I’m still shell shocked by the start of the Leafs this year, but I see them struggling towards a 40-42 season which should let them sneak into the final playoff spot. Let’s hope that I’m wrong and they push for 5 seed. For that to happen, the big three of Bosh, Bargnani and Turkoglu will have to mesh into a top front court quickly.
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Burke Takes Bad Rap For Mortgaging Future
Toronto is off to a horrid start and things are likely to get worse as they start a five game road trip on the west coast on Saturday. The blogs and radio waves are already filled with people attacking the moves that Burke has made. The most common refrain is that he has mortgaged the future of the team by trading away the team’s top pick the next two years as well as the second rounder in 2010/11.
While I would not have made the Kessel trade since I am not as aggressive as Burke, what I see is Burke fast tracking the team’s youth movement, not abandoning it. During the off season Burke did not just use the draft to pick up youth, he also pushed the Leafs ahead by adding youth in top ranked US college players and by signing Gustavsson from Sweden. Burke is using this approach to supplement the draft and will likely continue to proceed in this manner next year when he is without his top pick.
What Burke is trying to do is accelerate the growth through youth movement by expanding his strategy beyond conventional draft picks. He is willing to fight for top US collegians, top Europeans and by going after young RFA and UFA players.
Kessel is about to turn 22 and is coming off a 36 goal season. He will contribute more to the Leafs this year and next year then the number one pick in next year’s draft. Gustavsson will likely be the starting goaltender for the Leafs and he will likely have more value then the following year’s number one pick. Hanson is likely the equivalent of what the Leafs would hope to get with the number two pick in 2010/11.
While Burke did give up two number one picks and a number two this summer, he picked up Kessel, Gustavsson and Hanson which map to those picks. In addition, Burke also signed Tyler Bozak who should see quite a bit of playing time with the team this season.
The net result is that Burke added four under 25 year old players and has only given up two firsts and a second to achieve this. The top players that he added are more certain to have NHL potential then what may be available in the draft.
From my viewpoint he is not mortgaging the future, but is just fast tracking the addition of youth to the lineup.
While I would not have made the Kessel trade since I am not as aggressive as Burke, what I see is Burke fast tracking the team’s youth movement, not abandoning it. During the off season Burke did not just use the draft to pick up youth, he also pushed the Leafs ahead by adding youth in top ranked US college players and by signing Gustavsson from Sweden. Burke is using this approach to supplement the draft and will likely continue to proceed in this manner next year when he is without his top pick.
What Burke is trying to do is accelerate the growth through youth movement by expanding his strategy beyond conventional draft picks. He is willing to fight for top US collegians, top Europeans and by going after young RFA and UFA players.
Kessel is about to turn 22 and is coming off a 36 goal season. He will contribute more to the Leafs this year and next year then the number one pick in next year’s draft. Gustavsson will likely be the starting goaltender for the Leafs and he will likely have more value then the following year’s number one pick. Hanson is likely the equivalent of what the Leafs would hope to get with the number two pick in 2010/11.
While Burke did give up two number one picks and a number two this summer, he picked up Kessel, Gustavsson and Hanson which map to those picks. In addition, Burke also signed Tyler Bozak who should see quite a bit of playing time with the team this season.
The net result is that Burke added four under 25 year old players and has only given up two firsts and a second to achieve this. The top players that he added are more certain to have NHL potential then what may be available in the draft.
From my viewpoint he is not mortgaging the future, but is just fast tracking the addition of youth to the lineup.
Friday, October 16, 2009
NHL's Place in North America Sports
Headlines today talk about the City of Quebec pushing for a new $400 million hockey arena to lure back NHL hockey. The city has volunteered to put up $50 million and is asking the provincial and federal governments to each contribute $175 million under infrastructure programs. Now let me do some quick calculations here and figure out how much they are expecting from the multi-millionaires that will own the team that plays in the arena. In quick ballpark figures, that number would be zero.
In reading the positioning of their funding request you shake your head when you read that they are requesting the $350 million from the other levels of government under what they term infrastructure payments. Are we to assume that the road, sewage, transit, health and education systems are all up to snuff and do not require any of these funds? Are we to assume that this is the “perfect” time in our economic cycle to ask for this money? Maybe I missed something but I thought that we were in a major economic crisis with unemployment at maximum levels and a deficit that is racing to levels that will result in major inflation even if the current economic crisis is solved. Is this really the time for any rational politician to look for $400 million to fund an arena that will be used by a privately owned hockey team?
This brings me to what else is wrong with this picture. Why is a $400 million hockey arena now considered to be the price of admission the NHL is demanding for a city to qualify for a franchise. It is not enough that a city like Quebec, Hamilton, or Winnipeg may have fans to sell out NHL games? But after meetings with Bettman, it appears that a prerequisite now is that the hosting city find $400 million of taxpayer money to fund an arena that is suitable for the NHL.
Now why does the NHL require a $400 million arena when a 16,000 capacity hockey arena could be built for roughly half that price? The answer of course is luxury boxes. Luxury boxes exist in the NFL, NBA and major league baseball, so the assumption is that of course they must exist for NHL teams. Why? Well, the owners have to find a way to generate the money to fund player salaries that run up to $8 million dollars and pay an average player $2 - $3 million.
Unlike the true major North American sports leagues, the NHL does not have a national television contract in the U.S. to help pay the freight. When the NHL pretends that it is a major league it is putting a financial burden on most cities that they just can not afford. There is only so much money that corporate citizens and fans have to spend. In Canada and some of the major northern US cities there is either enough love for the game, or the city is large enough that it can afford to support an NHL that prices itself as a major league sport. In many US cities this is not the case as we see in Phoenix, Miami, Atlanta, Dallas, Nashville, Tampa, etc.
The NHL sees the abyss that many of their franchises are heading towards in the southern U.S. They are now coming to Canadian cities in the hopes that will find desperate local governments. It is not enough that hard working fans exist in these cities to support the team, but the governments must also cough up $400 million to build the super arena that the NHL demands. Hopefully these cities have the sense to say “No”. The way the league is structured it has priced itself out of any city that does not have a vacant arena lying around, or a government that is willing to sacrifice other priorities for the ego boost of having an NHL team.
If cities refuse to be held for ransom it will not be long before the NHL is faced with two real options that are dictated by the marketplace. One choice will be to contract the league to cities that do consider the NHL to be a major sports league. The other, will be to change their pricing and salary structures to market driven figures. This likely means either the elimination of the salary cap with team salaries being dependant on the money generated by each franchise, or a massive revenue sharing arrangement where the rich franchises share with the poor.
Either way the end result would be that ticket prices and player salaries come down to what the market will truly support. The reality is that in most cities the NHL is B List entertainment and the stars of B List movies do not make what the stars of A List movies make.
In reading the positioning of their funding request you shake your head when you read that they are requesting the $350 million from the other levels of government under what they term infrastructure payments. Are we to assume that the road, sewage, transit, health and education systems are all up to snuff and do not require any of these funds? Are we to assume that this is the “perfect” time in our economic cycle to ask for this money? Maybe I missed something but I thought that we were in a major economic crisis with unemployment at maximum levels and a deficit that is racing to levels that will result in major inflation even if the current economic crisis is solved. Is this really the time for any rational politician to look for $400 million to fund an arena that will be used by a privately owned hockey team?
This brings me to what else is wrong with this picture. Why is a $400 million hockey arena now considered to be the price of admission the NHL is demanding for a city to qualify for a franchise. It is not enough that a city like Quebec, Hamilton, or Winnipeg may have fans to sell out NHL games? But after meetings with Bettman, it appears that a prerequisite now is that the hosting city find $400 million of taxpayer money to fund an arena that is suitable for the NHL.
Now why does the NHL require a $400 million arena when a 16,000 capacity hockey arena could be built for roughly half that price? The answer of course is luxury boxes. Luxury boxes exist in the NFL, NBA and major league baseball, so the assumption is that of course they must exist for NHL teams. Why? Well, the owners have to find a way to generate the money to fund player salaries that run up to $8 million dollars and pay an average player $2 - $3 million.
Unlike the true major North American sports leagues, the NHL does not have a national television contract in the U.S. to help pay the freight. When the NHL pretends that it is a major league it is putting a financial burden on most cities that they just can not afford. There is only so much money that corporate citizens and fans have to spend. In Canada and some of the major northern US cities there is either enough love for the game, or the city is large enough that it can afford to support an NHL that prices itself as a major league sport. In many US cities this is not the case as we see in Phoenix, Miami, Atlanta, Dallas, Nashville, Tampa, etc.
The NHL sees the abyss that many of their franchises are heading towards in the southern U.S. They are now coming to Canadian cities in the hopes that will find desperate local governments. It is not enough that hard working fans exist in these cities to support the team, but the governments must also cough up $400 million to build the super arena that the NHL demands. Hopefully these cities have the sense to say “No”. The way the league is structured it has priced itself out of any city that does not have a vacant arena lying around, or a government that is willing to sacrifice other priorities for the ego boost of having an NHL team.
If cities refuse to be held for ransom it will not be long before the NHL is faced with two real options that are dictated by the marketplace. One choice will be to contract the league to cities that do consider the NHL to be a major sports league. The other, will be to change their pricing and salary structures to market driven figures. This likely means either the elimination of the salary cap with team salaries being dependant on the money generated by each franchise, or a massive revenue sharing arrangement where the rich franchises share with the poor.
Either way the end result would be that ticket prices and player salaries come down to what the market will truly support. The reality is that in most cities the NHL is B List entertainment and the stars of B List movies do not make what the stars of A List movies make.
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
NFL Top 10 and Week 6 Picks
1 - NY Giants 5-0 (Last week 1)
Mercy move by the Giants when they pull Eli to go with Carr in the drubbing of the Raiders. Big game next week when they travel to New Orleans to face the undefeated Saints.
2 - New Orleans 4-0 (Last week 2)
We’ll keep the Saints at number two after the by week. Two weeks off to prepare to host the Giants will help.
3 - Indianapolis 5-0 (Last week 3)
The Titans defense could not slow the Colts as they cruise to an easy 31-9 victory. 309 yards in the air and 3 touchdowns for Peyton.
4 - Minnesota 5-0 (Last week 4)
You can only beat who you are scheduled to play. An easy win on the road over the Rams this week, but a big challenge coming up when they host the Ravens.
5 - Denver 5-0 (Last week 8)
All they do is keep winning. A very impressive come from behind overtime victory against the Patriots including a 95 yard fourth quarter drive by Orton who had 330 yards and 2 touchdown passes.
6 - Philadelphia 3-1 (Last week unranked)
McNabb returns from his injury with 3 TD passes and the Eagles from their by week cruising to a solid 33-14 win over the Bucs.
7 - New England 3-2 (Last week 5)
The Patriots played a solid game but let the Broncos fight back to tie the game late and then lose in overtime.
8 - Atlanta 3-1 (Last week unranked)
No problem for the Falcons as they shred the Niners defense. Ryan passed for 329 yards and 2 touchdowns while Turner had 97 yards and 3 touchdowns rushing.
9 - Cincinnati 4-1 (Last week unranked)
Another surprise team off to a good start. A road win against the Ravens last week gives them the lead in the division.
10 - NY Jets 3-2 (Last week 6)
Very unlike the Jets to give up 21 points in the fourth quarter. After two tough losses on the road hosting the Bills at home next week should be the perfect tonic.
Top Picks Week 6 (Last week 0-3, Season 6-9)
Chicago plus 3 ½ at Atlanta. This should be a tough game decided by a touchdown either way so I’m taking the Bears plus the points.
Houston plus 6 at Cincinnati. Maybe I’m late believing in the Bengals but I’m taking the Texans and the points in what I think could be an outright win.
NY Giants plus 3 at New Orleans. The big game of the week with two undefeated teams. I’m not ready to go against the consistency of the Giants so I’m taking them and the points.
Mercy move by the Giants when they pull Eli to go with Carr in the drubbing of the Raiders. Big game next week when they travel to New Orleans to face the undefeated Saints.
2 - New Orleans 4-0 (Last week 2)
We’ll keep the Saints at number two after the by week. Two weeks off to prepare to host the Giants will help.
3 - Indianapolis 5-0 (Last week 3)
The Titans defense could not slow the Colts as they cruise to an easy 31-9 victory. 309 yards in the air and 3 touchdowns for Peyton.
4 - Minnesota 5-0 (Last week 4)
You can only beat who you are scheduled to play. An easy win on the road over the Rams this week, but a big challenge coming up when they host the Ravens.
5 - Denver 5-0 (Last week 8)
All they do is keep winning. A very impressive come from behind overtime victory against the Patriots including a 95 yard fourth quarter drive by Orton who had 330 yards and 2 touchdown passes.
6 - Philadelphia 3-1 (Last week unranked)
McNabb returns from his injury with 3 TD passes and the Eagles from their by week cruising to a solid 33-14 win over the Bucs.
7 - New England 3-2 (Last week 5)
The Patriots played a solid game but let the Broncos fight back to tie the game late and then lose in overtime.
8 - Atlanta 3-1 (Last week unranked)
No problem for the Falcons as they shred the Niners defense. Ryan passed for 329 yards and 2 touchdowns while Turner had 97 yards and 3 touchdowns rushing.
9 - Cincinnati 4-1 (Last week unranked)
Another surprise team off to a good start. A road win against the Ravens last week gives them the lead in the division.
10 - NY Jets 3-2 (Last week 6)
Very unlike the Jets to give up 21 points in the fourth quarter. After two tough losses on the road hosting the Bills at home next week should be the perfect tonic.
Top Picks Week 6 (Last week 0-3, Season 6-9)
Chicago plus 3 ½ at Atlanta. This should be a tough game decided by a touchdown either way so I’m taking the Bears plus the points.
Houston plus 6 at Cincinnati. Maybe I’m late believing in the Bengals but I’m taking the Texans and the points in what I think could be an outright win.
NY Giants plus 3 at New Orleans. The big game of the week with two undefeated teams. I’m not ready to go against the consistency of the Giants so I’m taking them and the points.
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
Maybe A Way Out For Blake
There is lots of talk about burying Blake in the minors but that is easier said then done. The problem isn’t just one of MLSE agreeing to swallow Blake’s contract while he plays for the Marlies. The bigger problem is what Blake’s attitude will be down in the minors and how that will effect the players there. Burying a player like Blake also creates a bad impression for the team among NHL agents.
An out of the box thought is trying to move Blake for a worse contract that you are willing to eat. The name that comes to mind is Rick DiPietro. When healthy he is an outstanding goalie. The question is whether he will ever be healthy again. The Islanders signed him to a crazy long term deal that still has over ten years to run at $4.5 million per season and would love to get out from under that commitment.
At present DiPietro is costing the team salary but not cap space since he is on injured reserve. The Islanders do not need the cap relief and they certainly don’t want to throw $4.5 million per year down the drain on a player that is not contributing. For them, Blake’s contract at a $4 million cap hit, but only $3 million in actual salary for the next two years, would look great compared to DiPietro’s.
The question here is; would the Leafs be willing to take DiPietro’s contract off the Islanders hands? If they are serious about being willing to eat a bad contract then maybe Toronto is willing to pick up his contract, pay his salary, and get cap relief if he can not return.
Because of the contracts, a straight Blake for DiPietro is stacked in the Islanders favor so this should allow Burke to expand the deal. The player that I’d be interested in picking up from the Islanders is Josh Bailey. Bailey has slipped to number three at center on the Islanders depth chart, but at 19 he still has the potential to be a number one center. Going the Islanders way would be either Stajan or Grabovski.
Why would the Islanders do this? They immediately pick up production by adding Blake and either Stajan or Grabovski while only losing their number three center. More importantly they get out from under the remaining salary commitment to DiPietro who may never be able to resume his career as a full time number one goalie.
The Leafs pick up the $4.5 million salary commitment but this will only count against their cap if DiPietro is healthy enough to resume his career as a number one goalie. That is highly unlikely and if it were to occur, it is not a bad problem to have. They also pick up a top prospect that is ready to play in the NHL today and will be a legitimate top two line center and possibly the partner for Phil Kessel.
Is this deal sellable to either team? Likely not, but it is the type of out of the box thinking that Burke will have to consider to move the team forward.
An out of the box thought is trying to move Blake for a worse contract that you are willing to eat. The name that comes to mind is Rick DiPietro. When healthy he is an outstanding goalie. The question is whether he will ever be healthy again. The Islanders signed him to a crazy long term deal that still has over ten years to run at $4.5 million per season and would love to get out from under that commitment.
At present DiPietro is costing the team salary but not cap space since he is on injured reserve. The Islanders do not need the cap relief and they certainly don’t want to throw $4.5 million per year down the drain on a player that is not contributing. For them, Blake’s contract at a $4 million cap hit, but only $3 million in actual salary for the next two years, would look great compared to DiPietro’s.
The question here is; would the Leafs be willing to take DiPietro’s contract off the Islanders hands? If they are serious about being willing to eat a bad contract then maybe Toronto is willing to pick up his contract, pay his salary, and get cap relief if he can not return.
Because of the contracts, a straight Blake for DiPietro is stacked in the Islanders favor so this should allow Burke to expand the deal. The player that I’d be interested in picking up from the Islanders is Josh Bailey. Bailey has slipped to number three at center on the Islanders depth chart, but at 19 he still has the potential to be a number one center. Going the Islanders way would be either Stajan or Grabovski.
Why would the Islanders do this? They immediately pick up production by adding Blake and either Stajan or Grabovski while only losing their number three center. More importantly they get out from under the remaining salary commitment to DiPietro who may never be able to resume his career as a full time number one goalie.
The Leafs pick up the $4.5 million salary commitment but this will only count against their cap if DiPietro is healthy enough to resume his career as a number one goalie. That is highly unlikely and if it were to occur, it is not a bad problem to have. They also pick up a top prospect that is ready to play in the NHL today and will be a legitimate top two line center and possibly the partner for Phil Kessel.
Is this deal sellable to either team? Likely not, but it is the type of out of the box thinking that Burke will have to consider to move the team forward.
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
Leafs After Three Games
After an exciting pre-season the regular season has gotten off to a bumpy start for the Leafs. All three games have resulted in losses, but the interesting thing is that each game was different. That could show that the team has more problems with different deficiencies being exposed each time, or it could show that the team has the ability to correct the deficiencies and just needs to find a way to put it all together.
The biggest concern so far is the defense. Burke invested heavily in the off season with the acquisitions of Komisarek and Beauchemin. Together with Kaberle and Schenn they were supposed to be the big four and provide 45-50 minutes of solid defense each game. Komisarek got off to a rough start against Montreal but we can write that one off to over exuberance against his former team. Since then he has steadied his play and it looks like he and Kaberle could be a strong number one pairing with Kaberle leading the rushes.
The real disappointment has been the number two pair. Beauchemin has gotten off to a really bad start and does not look like a top four defender on a contenting team. Schenn has had an equally shaky start to the year and there is no chemistry between the two. It may be time for the Leafs to look at dropping Schenn back to the third pairing for a while and move a Finger or Van Ryn (when he is healthy) into the second pair to work with Beauchemin. The problems here are likely temporary. It is not unusual for a 19 year old defenseman to struggle in his second year and Beauchemin is too solid of a veteran not to find his game. The only real question is whether the two of them will make the solid pairing that was forecast as the season moves on.
Toskala’s shaky start gave the team an early opportunity to give Gustavsson his first start. So far Gustavsson has done absolutely nothing to disappoint or show that he will not be the number one goalie at season’s end. Granted he has only played five periods of regular season NHL action, but he shows the confidence, agility, positioning and rebound control that you need in your number one goaltender. The Leafs will likely delay such a proclamation for as long as possible since they need to help Toskala rediscover his game if only for the sake of him providing some value for him at the trade deadline.
In Toskala’s defense fans should remember that he is trying to modify his style under the tutelage of Allaire and the team did not play solid defense in front of him. The reality however is that at 32, and in the last year of his $4 million contract there is no future here for Toskala. The team would be just as well served with a 29 year old MacDonald earning under $1 million serving as back up.
The forward units are a bigger concern for the team. Stempniak, Mitchell, Stalberg and Stajan have played well so far. Grabovski shows flashes of speed and skill, but his inability to win face offs against top centers wastes half of each shift for his line since they need to spend that time getting the puck back. Ponikarovsky is his old steady self but is showing that he will not be on the team next year. The Leafs sorely need to get Kessel’s finishing touch into the lineup and it remains a question as to whether he will play with Stajan or Grabovski, or will Bozak will be in the lineup by that time.
The bottom six needs to be settled as well but we can expect quite a bit of shuffling here throughout the season. Rosehill and Orr can not play on the same line but both may find a place in the regular lineup. To compete, the Leafs need to roll four lines since they must rely on energy and fore checking for a full sixty minutes.
Three games in it is too early to panic but the pieces have to come together quickly. With the schedule for the balance of the month being very difficult this will not be easy but the Leafs can not afford to fall too far back of a playoff position.
The biggest concern so far is the defense. Burke invested heavily in the off season with the acquisitions of Komisarek and Beauchemin. Together with Kaberle and Schenn they were supposed to be the big four and provide 45-50 minutes of solid defense each game. Komisarek got off to a rough start against Montreal but we can write that one off to over exuberance against his former team. Since then he has steadied his play and it looks like he and Kaberle could be a strong number one pairing with Kaberle leading the rushes.
The real disappointment has been the number two pair. Beauchemin has gotten off to a really bad start and does not look like a top four defender on a contenting team. Schenn has had an equally shaky start to the year and there is no chemistry between the two. It may be time for the Leafs to look at dropping Schenn back to the third pairing for a while and move a Finger or Van Ryn (when he is healthy) into the second pair to work with Beauchemin. The problems here are likely temporary. It is not unusual for a 19 year old defenseman to struggle in his second year and Beauchemin is too solid of a veteran not to find his game. The only real question is whether the two of them will make the solid pairing that was forecast as the season moves on.
Toskala’s shaky start gave the team an early opportunity to give Gustavsson his first start. So far Gustavsson has done absolutely nothing to disappoint or show that he will not be the number one goalie at season’s end. Granted he has only played five periods of regular season NHL action, but he shows the confidence, agility, positioning and rebound control that you need in your number one goaltender. The Leafs will likely delay such a proclamation for as long as possible since they need to help Toskala rediscover his game if only for the sake of him providing some value for him at the trade deadline.
In Toskala’s defense fans should remember that he is trying to modify his style under the tutelage of Allaire and the team did not play solid defense in front of him. The reality however is that at 32, and in the last year of his $4 million contract there is no future here for Toskala. The team would be just as well served with a 29 year old MacDonald earning under $1 million serving as back up.
The forward units are a bigger concern for the team. Stempniak, Mitchell, Stalberg and Stajan have played well so far. Grabovski shows flashes of speed and skill, but his inability to win face offs against top centers wastes half of each shift for his line since they need to spend that time getting the puck back. Ponikarovsky is his old steady self but is showing that he will not be on the team next year. The Leafs sorely need to get Kessel’s finishing touch into the lineup and it remains a question as to whether he will play with Stajan or Grabovski, or will Bozak will be in the lineup by that time.
The bottom six needs to be settled as well but we can expect quite a bit of shuffling here throughout the season. Rosehill and Orr can not play on the same line but both may find a place in the regular lineup. To compete, the Leafs need to roll four lines since they must rely on energy and fore checking for a full sixty minutes.
Three games in it is too early to panic but the pieces have to come together quickly. With the schedule for the balance of the month being very difficult this will not be easy but the Leafs can not afford to fall too far back of a playoff position.
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