Phil Kessel may well be the most interesting RFA on the market this year. He is only 21, has blazing speed, a great shot and is coming off a 36 goal season. You would think that this would be the type of player that a team would automatically look to re-signing. That’s what makes the Kessel saga so interesting from many angles.
First off, Kessel like most 21 year olds is not perfect. His game has holes and playing on a line with Andre Savard can inflate your goal scoring figures. That being said, Kessel is a great young asset that most teams would love to have and as such he is in for a big raise. The problem for the Bruins is that they are pushing for a cup now and have salary cap issues, so they may well not be able to re-sign Kessel. Being a contender now, they do not want to pick up futures for him, so a trade for a quality puck moving defenseman like Kaberle was attractive to them.
The Leafs on the other hand are looking to have a competitive team a few years down the road so moving a Kaberle for a young player like Kessel makes great sense. What makes it interesting for the Leafs is Kessel’s RFA status. Questions have been asked as to whether the Leafs would trade for Kessel without being sure that they can re-sign him. My answer is an immediate and loud yes.
Yes, you ask? You’d trade Kaberle for Kessel and he could leave as an RFA in a matter of days, and you still say yes? The reason for the yes is RFA compensation and how that effectively limits what another team would bid for Kessel. Remember, as an RFA the Leafs could match any team’s offer, but if the other team offered more then the Leafs were willing to match, then the Leafs could opt for compensation.
I would grade Kessel as about a $4 million player and would look to sign him for something in that range. If another team were to offer him $5 million a season the Leafs would have a choice of matching that salary, or accepting compensation which would be a 1st, 2nd and 3rd round draft choice. In fact any bid over $3.923 million would receive that compensation. If the competing offer went up to $5.3 million, that team would have to toss in another 1st round pick in addition to those draft choices. It is highly debatable if any team would be willing to give up the compensation for signing Kessel to a contract of $4 million or more. So for trading Kaberle, the Leafs would receive either Kessel at a contract that they feel is reasonable, or a minimum of three draft choices including a first rounder. To me there’s not much of a downside.
All the talk about teams conspiring not to tend offers to other teams RFA’s is partially true, but you can also see how the compensation side works against such offers sheets being tabled. For the Leafs, they are far better off to trade for Kessel while he is an RFA, then to wait and try to sign him as an RFA and give up a minimum of three top draft choices when they are in rebuilding mode.
One unfortunate thing about the RFA rules is that they work against the weaker teams in the league. The value of the Islanders 1st draft choice is many times more than the value of the 1st draft choice of a Pittsburgh, Detroit or San Jose. Toronto being near the bottom of the league is not likely to make offers for top RFA’s for this reason. If you see an RFA offer from the Leafs it will likely be for under $2.6 million where the compensation is only a 2nd round pick, or under $1.3 where the compensation is a 3rd rounder. For offers under $863,156 no compensation is due.
The salary cap, economic climate and RFA rules make this an interesting time for NHL managers.
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Monday, June 29, 2009
Checking In On the Jays
The toughest management job of all the major teams in Toronto could well be that of JP Ricciardi. While there is no official salary cap in baseball, the Jays do have a firm cap set by Rogers. The tough part for Ricciardi is that he is in the same division as the Yankees and Red Sox. The Jays compete with a budget of $80 million in salaries, while the Red Sox are at $121 million and the Yankees with a seemingly endless budget are over $200 million.
Not only can the Yankees, or Red Sox outbid the Jays for any player that they like, they also do not have to worry about being wrong or a pitcher blowing out their arm. Over the years the Yankees have made many wrong free agent decisions, but if the player fails, the Yankees just shrug their shoulders and pick up another high priced replacement.
The Jays do not have that luxury. To try and keep a nucleus together they are forced to gamble on signing some of their younger players with potential before they prove themselves. At the time, the signings of Alex Rios and Vernon Wells were greeted with great fan approval. Today, both players are under producing and their long term salary commitments hang over Toronto’s neck. Then you add B J Ryan, who earns $12 million dollars and is no longer your closer, and you have a quarter of your team’s salary taken up by players who are not performing where they should be. Worse, with the contracts that these players have, they are not movable so the Jays are stuck.
Do we blame J P for this? I really don’t think so. At the time of their signings, both Wells and Rios held potential. They were both excellent fielders, could hit with power and for average. They were both young and the Jays were tying them up for the prime of their careers. The alternative would have been to let them walk or wait until they fully proved themselves, but then you would have been competing with the Yankees, Mets or Red Sox for their services and we all know how that plays out.
This year has actually been a great and exciting one for the Jays. Their pitching staff has been decimated by injuries the last couple of years but the Jays have found more youth to replace these arms. Both Romero and Richmond are off to great starts with ERA’s under 4.00 and Tallet has also been a quality starter. Doc is off to another great season. Despite being a Jays fan, you almost feel sorry for Doc heading out there knowing that the team is in the middle of another lost season. Even the bullpen has shown surprises with Frasor and Downs growing into strong late inning pitchers.
While Rios and Wells have been the disappointments so far, their performance has been offset by the great start of Hill, Lind and Scutaro. Hill in particular is playing all star quality ball and hopefully he will be one player that they can keep long term if they can move some of the salaries around.
Storylines to be excited about include Halladay, Hill, Lind, Scutaro, Romero and Richmond. The disappointments are really only Ryan, Wells and Rios. That leaves the Jays story as a positive with a second half push to the playoffs, right?
Nope, not even close the way I see it. Even though we are only three games out of a wildcard spot, we are in fourth place in our own division as we sit this morning and in baseball there is only wildcard birth for the playoffs. We have both the Yankees and the Red Sox ahead of us and the tough part of our schedule hasn’t even started.
Are the fans excited? At the moment we are 25 out of 30 in home attendance in the majors so despite the quick start, the turnstiles are not spinning. I’d actually worry about the future of the franchise in Toronto, but the Jays are owned by Rogers, and I hear the television ratings are up and that is the big part of their investment.
Not only can the Yankees, or Red Sox outbid the Jays for any player that they like, they also do not have to worry about being wrong or a pitcher blowing out their arm. Over the years the Yankees have made many wrong free agent decisions, but if the player fails, the Yankees just shrug their shoulders and pick up another high priced replacement.
The Jays do not have that luxury. To try and keep a nucleus together they are forced to gamble on signing some of their younger players with potential before they prove themselves. At the time, the signings of Alex Rios and Vernon Wells were greeted with great fan approval. Today, both players are under producing and their long term salary commitments hang over Toronto’s neck. Then you add B J Ryan, who earns $12 million dollars and is no longer your closer, and you have a quarter of your team’s salary taken up by players who are not performing where they should be. Worse, with the contracts that these players have, they are not movable so the Jays are stuck.
Do we blame J P for this? I really don’t think so. At the time of their signings, both Wells and Rios held potential. They were both excellent fielders, could hit with power and for average. They were both young and the Jays were tying them up for the prime of their careers. The alternative would have been to let them walk or wait until they fully proved themselves, but then you would have been competing with the Yankees, Mets or Red Sox for their services and we all know how that plays out.
This year has actually been a great and exciting one for the Jays. Their pitching staff has been decimated by injuries the last couple of years but the Jays have found more youth to replace these arms. Both Romero and Richmond are off to great starts with ERA’s under 4.00 and Tallet has also been a quality starter. Doc is off to another great season. Despite being a Jays fan, you almost feel sorry for Doc heading out there knowing that the team is in the middle of another lost season. Even the bullpen has shown surprises with Frasor and Downs growing into strong late inning pitchers.
While Rios and Wells have been the disappointments so far, their performance has been offset by the great start of Hill, Lind and Scutaro. Hill in particular is playing all star quality ball and hopefully he will be one player that they can keep long term if they can move some of the salaries around.
Storylines to be excited about include Halladay, Hill, Lind, Scutaro, Romero and Richmond. The disappointments are really only Ryan, Wells and Rios. That leaves the Jays story as a positive with a second half push to the playoffs, right?
Nope, not even close the way I see it. Even though we are only three games out of a wildcard spot, we are in fourth place in our own division as we sit this morning and in baseball there is only wildcard birth for the playoffs. We have both the Yankees and the Red Sox ahead of us and the tough part of our schedule hasn’t even started.
Are the fans excited? At the moment we are 25 out of 30 in home attendance in the majors so despite the quick start, the turnstiles are not spinning. I’d actually worry about the future of the franchise in Toronto, but the Jays are owned by Rogers, and I hear the television ratings are up and that is the big part of their investment.
Saturday, June 27, 2009
Leafs Take Kadri
A day of excitement and possible trades seemed to fizzle as the NHL draft yielded few surprises in the first round. This was especially true for the Leafs who tried to swing trades all day to move up in the draft and had that mix up with Boston over the Kaberle/Kessel deal. Even the hopes of the Leafs re-united the Schenn brothers did not happen when the Kings took Brayden at five and you could see a bit of the frustration in Burke’s face.
It would have been fun today to dissect all the moves that Burke made yesterday and whether the gambles where worth it. The story would have been about Burke and what he had accomplished and he would have been in the limelight. Despite his image, I do not believe that is what Burke is about. As head of the Leafs he has shown patience, and for the job of rebuilding the Leafs patience is a major requirement. There are no quick fixes with this team, and with salary cap it is all too easy to put yourself in a position that you can not easily recover from.
I did not expect the Leafs to take Kadri, but I love the choice. For a multi-cultural city like Toronto it is a great choice, but above all, for a hockey move it is a great choice. Kadri brings energy, skill, speed and character to the Leafs. Character seems to be an important component of what Burke is trying to bring to the Leafs and I applaud him for that. Kadri could be an impact player centering a line with a star winger in a few years. At worse he will be a high energy number two center with skill and a top penalty killer. Next year will be spent back in junior hockey and with the Canadian national team and then we can look toward him taking his shot at making the Leafs the following year.
As important as what Burke did with taking Kadri, is what Burke did not do in the first round. He did not take a step back and trade Schenn as part of a package to try and get Tavares. The Leafs are not in a position where they can move several assets, including Schenn, Kadri and Kaberle for the hope that Tavares will lead this team. Besides I’d rather have Schenn and Kadri lead this team instead of Tavares. Schenn and Kadri will be important building blocks for this franchise and Kaberle will be moved over the summer for additional pieces. The Leafs are not a quick fix and Burke is building a team, not trying to find a new hero for the Leaf fans to worship. Heck, Leaf fans are happy to worship a Tie Domi so that is not Burke’s goal.
I am also glad that Burke did not trade away pieces to move to take Luke’s brother. It would have been “neat” to have both brothers on the same team, but that also creates an immediate clique on the team and a dynamic that is not team focused. The Schenn boys both appear to have great character, but you do want a part of your team plan focusing on how to keep them together over the years. We already have an extreme case of that happening in Vancouver with the Sedins.
I am also glad that Burke did not waste the seventh pick for a Cowen or Kassian. We already have our shutdown defenseman in Schenn so Cowen is not a need for this team and Kassian is not a top ten pick from where I sit. Burke will pick up some of that abrasive edge in later rounds during this draft and he will add to that in the summer. Wasting a number seven pick on that would have been a shame. There is a difference between building a tough team with grit and character and just putting together a group of bullies. Burke understands that and with his handling of last nights draft I am confident that is the direction that the Leafs are moving in.
It would have been fun today to dissect all the moves that Burke made yesterday and whether the gambles where worth it. The story would have been about Burke and what he had accomplished and he would have been in the limelight. Despite his image, I do not believe that is what Burke is about. As head of the Leafs he has shown patience, and for the job of rebuilding the Leafs patience is a major requirement. There are no quick fixes with this team, and with salary cap it is all too easy to put yourself in a position that you can not easily recover from.
I did not expect the Leafs to take Kadri, but I love the choice. For a multi-cultural city like Toronto it is a great choice, but above all, for a hockey move it is a great choice. Kadri brings energy, skill, speed and character to the Leafs. Character seems to be an important component of what Burke is trying to bring to the Leafs and I applaud him for that. Kadri could be an impact player centering a line with a star winger in a few years. At worse he will be a high energy number two center with skill and a top penalty killer. Next year will be spent back in junior hockey and with the Canadian national team and then we can look toward him taking his shot at making the Leafs the following year.
As important as what Burke did with taking Kadri, is what Burke did not do in the first round. He did not take a step back and trade Schenn as part of a package to try and get Tavares. The Leafs are not in a position where they can move several assets, including Schenn, Kadri and Kaberle for the hope that Tavares will lead this team. Besides I’d rather have Schenn and Kadri lead this team instead of Tavares. Schenn and Kadri will be important building blocks for this franchise and Kaberle will be moved over the summer for additional pieces. The Leafs are not a quick fix and Burke is building a team, not trying to find a new hero for the Leaf fans to worship. Heck, Leaf fans are happy to worship a Tie Domi so that is not Burke’s goal.
I am also glad that Burke did not trade away pieces to move to take Luke’s brother. It would have been “neat” to have both brothers on the same team, but that also creates an immediate clique on the team and a dynamic that is not team focused. The Schenn boys both appear to have great character, but you do want a part of your team plan focusing on how to keep them together over the years. We already have an extreme case of that happening in Vancouver with the Sedins.
I am also glad that Burke did not waste the seventh pick for a Cowen or Kassian. We already have our shutdown defenseman in Schenn so Cowen is not a need for this team and Kassian is not a top ten pick from where I sit. Burke will pick up some of that abrasive edge in later rounds during this draft and he will add to that in the summer. Wasting a number seven pick on that would have been a shame. There is a difference between building a tough team with grit and character and just putting together a group of bullies. Burke understands that and with his handling of last nights draft I am confident that is the direction that the Leafs are moving in.
Friday, June 26, 2009
Raptors Right On
Draft night fell perfectly for the Raptors when Minnesota drafted their second point guard of the night in Jonny Flynn at number six last night. With the Knicks or Warriors sure to grab Stephen Curry with one of the next two choices, the Raptors were guaranteed that either DeMar DeRozan or Jordan Hill would be available to the Raptors with pick nine.
As projected in this blog on June 22, the Raps had DeRozan targeted as their pick and only the falling of Hill down the board would have altered those plans. Hill did drop as we thought, but with the Knicks losing out on Curry they snapped Hill up with the eight pick which left DeRozan to fall right into the Raptors lap.
The pick of DeRozan deals with the one of the Raptors major holes which was the lack of athleticism at the two spot. Not only does he bring great athleticism, he also packs all that into a 6’6, 211 pound frame. Always remember in basketball, that size is one thing that you can’t teach. DeRozan only had one season at USC so he comes in pretty raw. With the Raptors having two great teaching coaches in Triano and Iavaroni, this could be a perfect fit for DeRozan as well. With Iavaroni’s focus being defense, he should have a great student to help utilize his size and quickness to guard some of the NBA’s top two guards straight up. Offensively his year started off slow in college, but he picked that up during tournament time where he averaged over 16 points and just under 7 rebounds a game. DeRozan brings a slash to the basket kind of explosiveness that the Raptors desperately need and now has to focus on his outside shooting to round out his game. Again you can teach a player to shoot much easier then you can teach a player to be quick and slash to the basket.
The starter at the two spot at the beginning of the year should either be Parker or Delfino depending on which one returns. With DeRozan on board, the Raps no longer need to try and sign both. Triano already has stated that he doesn’t think that DeRozan can learn from just sitting on the bench, so expect him to start earning his minutes early and I would not be surprised to see him starting a few months into the season.
From what I’ve heard of DeRozan I think that he has the right attitude to earn those minutes and to push himself. Comparisons to Vince Carter’s potential do not scare him and a major reason that he left college after one year was to start earning money so that he can help with the costs of his mother’s medical treatments for lupus.
It was nice to see the Raptors also reaffirm their faith in Calderon and Ukic by not trying to trade back into the first round when point guard Jrue Holiday fell all the way down to 17. The Raptors had interest in Holiday, but instead of going for additional insurance at the point they have opted to focus on filling their immediate need at the two which means a team with more potential for this year.
With this move I can see the Raptors intensifying their desire to hold on to Marion. If Colangelo can not get Marion signed to a contract that makes sense, expect a sign and trade fairly early that brings back help at small forward. As I’ve said before, the start of this season is all important to the Raptors so they need to put the pieces in place quickly so that Triano and Iavaroni can start putting this puzzle together.
As projected in this blog on June 22, the Raps had DeRozan targeted as their pick and only the falling of Hill down the board would have altered those plans. Hill did drop as we thought, but with the Knicks losing out on Curry they snapped Hill up with the eight pick which left DeRozan to fall right into the Raptors lap.
The pick of DeRozan deals with the one of the Raptors major holes which was the lack of athleticism at the two spot. Not only does he bring great athleticism, he also packs all that into a 6’6, 211 pound frame. Always remember in basketball, that size is one thing that you can’t teach. DeRozan only had one season at USC so he comes in pretty raw. With the Raptors having two great teaching coaches in Triano and Iavaroni, this could be a perfect fit for DeRozan as well. With Iavaroni’s focus being defense, he should have a great student to help utilize his size and quickness to guard some of the NBA’s top two guards straight up. Offensively his year started off slow in college, but he picked that up during tournament time where he averaged over 16 points and just under 7 rebounds a game. DeRozan brings a slash to the basket kind of explosiveness that the Raptors desperately need and now has to focus on his outside shooting to round out his game. Again you can teach a player to shoot much easier then you can teach a player to be quick and slash to the basket.
The starter at the two spot at the beginning of the year should either be Parker or Delfino depending on which one returns. With DeRozan on board, the Raps no longer need to try and sign both. Triano already has stated that he doesn’t think that DeRozan can learn from just sitting on the bench, so expect him to start earning his minutes early and I would not be surprised to see him starting a few months into the season.
From what I’ve heard of DeRozan I think that he has the right attitude to earn those minutes and to push himself. Comparisons to Vince Carter’s potential do not scare him and a major reason that he left college after one year was to start earning money so that he can help with the costs of his mother’s medical treatments for lupus.
It was nice to see the Raptors also reaffirm their faith in Calderon and Ukic by not trying to trade back into the first round when point guard Jrue Holiday fell all the way down to 17. The Raptors had interest in Holiday, but instead of going for additional insurance at the point they have opted to focus on filling their immediate need at the two which means a team with more potential for this year.
With this move I can see the Raptors intensifying their desire to hold on to Marion. If Colangelo can not get Marion signed to a contract that makes sense, expect a sign and trade fairly early that brings back help at small forward. As I’ve said before, the start of this season is all important to the Raptors so they need to put the pieces in place quickly so that Triano and Iavaroni can start putting this puzzle together.
Thursday, June 25, 2009
Leaf Pieces
Its almost funny reading how the Leafs have nothing in their cupboard to make meaningful trades with going into the draft. What fans seem to forget is that all teams do not have the same objectives. We are in a salary cap NHL so some teams have contracts on the books that they would love to move so that they can help their team elsewhere. Other teams are struggling in this economic climate and need to cut costs, or need to make a big splash to attract a big name talent to help sell tickets.
So for starters, the Leafs have some assets that do not involve players on their roster. They have the flexibility to take on some contracts that other teams may want to dump. They have the financial strength to be able to burry some contracts in the minors which effectively allows them to go beyond the cap. They also have no concern about selling tickets and have a fan base that is willing to accept a major rebuild, so they have the flexibility to do what is right without regard to selling tickets.
Those are all big pieces for Burke to use. In addition they have some players on the roster that are somewhat attractive. Many teams would love to add Kaberle who immediately strengthens a team and is on a reasonable contract. Some teams would even like to add Kubina for the immediate help that he provides and is only a one year salary commitment. Other players like Grabovski, Stajan and White are players that are not in the Leafs long term plans, but have value and are not tied into big dollar contracts.
Let’s take a look at a few teams and see what components are there for a trade.
Tampa is a team struggling with what to do with Lecavalier. They would love to trade the $10 million per year salary commitment, but can they afford to do that when Lecavalier is the face of the team in Tampa? The Leafs could help Tampa by taking Malone and Meszaros off their hands which removes a commitment of over $8 million per year for the next four years off Tampa’s books. What is that flexibility worth to Tampa and how much more would the Leafs have to add to that to get Tampa to flip picks first round picks with the Leafs?
In Atlanta, Kovalchuk is one year away from free agency. This could be Chris Bosh kind of case where if Atlanta does not improve next year, will Kovalchuk not resign. How much will Kane or Brayden Schenn help Atlanta next year picking at four, versus what they could get with the Leafs pick at seven? Giving the Thrashers a Kaberle or Kubina might be enough to get Atlanta to flip picks with the Leafs and they might even be willing to take Blake off the Leafs hands for the immediate help next year.
LA has loads of strength up the middle and is trying to land a high profile player like Heatley or Lecavalier. Doughty is their stud on defense and there have already been rumblings about them looking at moving Johnson since he will be looking for a big salary bump for next season. Maybe the Leafs can get a young talented player like Johnson for their blue line if they are willing to also take the $4 million per year that the Kings will be paying Handzus for the next two years. LA’s pick at five could also be in play here and allow the Leafs to pick Brayden Schenn.
Anaheim is committed to Hiller as their starting goalie and are desperate to move Giguere off the books who will earn $6 and $7 million the next two years as the back up. The Leafs could flip Toskala, who only has one more year left at $4 million to Anaheim if they would give the Leafs the 15th overall pick for one of Toronto’s picks later in the draft. Giguere would be reunited with his goaltending coach and would be the Leafs goalie for two years while they groom his replacement.
Yes I do think there are moves to be made for Toronto and they have some intriguing pieces once we start to understand the motivation of the other teams.
So for starters, the Leafs have some assets that do not involve players on their roster. They have the flexibility to take on some contracts that other teams may want to dump. They have the financial strength to be able to burry some contracts in the minors which effectively allows them to go beyond the cap. They also have no concern about selling tickets and have a fan base that is willing to accept a major rebuild, so they have the flexibility to do what is right without regard to selling tickets.
Those are all big pieces for Burke to use. In addition they have some players on the roster that are somewhat attractive. Many teams would love to add Kaberle who immediately strengthens a team and is on a reasonable contract. Some teams would even like to add Kubina for the immediate help that he provides and is only a one year salary commitment. Other players like Grabovski, Stajan and White are players that are not in the Leafs long term plans, but have value and are not tied into big dollar contracts.
Let’s take a look at a few teams and see what components are there for a trade.
Tampa is a team struggling with what to do with Lecavalier. They would love to trade the $10 million per year salary commitment, but can they afford to do that when Lecavalier is the face of the team in Tampa? The Leafs could help Tampa by taking Malone and Meszaros off their hands which removes a commitment of over $8 million per year for the next four years off Tampa’s books. What is that flexibility worth to Tampa and how much more would the Leafs have to add to that to get Tampa to flip picks first round picks with the Leafs?
In Atlanta, Kovalchuk is one year away from free agency. This could be Chris Bosh kind of case where if Atlanta does not improve next year, will Kovalchuk not resign. How much will Kane or Brayden Schenn help Atlanta next year picking at four, versus what they could get with the Leafs pick at seven? Giving the Thrashers a Kaberle or Kubina might be enough to get Atlanta to flip picks with the Leafs and they might even be willing to take Blake off the Leafs hands for the immediate help next year.
LA has loads of strength up the middle and is trying to land a high profile player like Heatley or Lecavalier. Doughty is their stud on defense and there have already been rumblings about them looking at moving Johnson since he will be looking for a big salary bump for next season. Maybe the Leafs can get a young talented player like Johnson for their blue line if they are willing to also take the $4 million per year that the Kings will be paying Handzus for the next two years. LA’s pick at five could also be in play here and allow the Leafs to pick Brayden Schenn.
Anaheim is committed to Hiller as their starting goalie and are desperate to move Giguere off the books who will earn $6 and $7 million the next two years as the back up. The Leafs could flip Toskala, who only has one more year left at $4 million to Anaheim if they would give the Leafs the 15th overall pick for one of Toronto’s picks later in the draft. Giguere would be reunited with his goaltending coach and would be the Leafs goalie for two years while they groom his replacement.
Yes I do think there are moves to be made for Toronto and they have some intriguing pieces once we start to understand the motivation of the other teams.
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
Reinsdorf Offer
They tell us we’re going to have an offer by Friday. First off you have to love the timing of this. On Friday the NHL has their annual draft and now the Reinsdorf offer is scheduled for the same day. At first blush this seems like the league is again pre-empting its own big show by having both events occur on the same day. However, when you think about this, it really is not a bad idea. About the only market that cares about the Coyote story is the Toronto area and on Saturday morning you know that our media will be all over the draft and the Leafs. So Friday is a perfect day for the offer to be made if you want to minimize media scrutiny.
So instead of spoiling my Saturday by trying to deal with both issues, let’s get the Reinsdorf offer out of the way first. The most important thing to watch in this offer is what the new lease deal is with Glendale. Balsillie’s legal team will be all over this, and if the details of the new lease deal are not spelled out up front you can bet that they will be after the courts to make this public knowledge.
I do not think that you will find large subsidies in this lease. Arizona law prohibits such subsidies to private companies, and politically such subsidies would not be palatable to the taxpayers of Glendale in this economic climate. Realizing that no money would come to Glendale by forcing the Coyotes to fold, I believe that the new lease will contain a buyout clause where Reinsdorf would be able to break the lease if certain attendance figures are not met. Should such a clause be exercised down the road, Reinsdorf may well have an understanding with the NHL that he will be able to deduct the cost of breaking the lease from any relocation fee.
Once all this is all out in the open I believe that Balsillie’s lawyers will demand to have the opportunity to make a bid based on the same Glendale lease concessions. If they are smart, and patient, they will be willing to make a new bid without the stipulation of being able to move the franchise. A buyout clause in the lease would already make the Coyotes a moveable franchise. Remember, Balsillie was willing to buy the Penguins without a guarantee that he could move them to Ontario. He was willing to keep the team in Pittsburgh if a new arena deal was reached. What broke that deal was the late NHL demand that he sign an amendment to the purchase agreement promising that he would not move the team even if a new arena was not built.
In Nashville, he again was willing to buy the team and move it once attendance figures were not reached and the lease could be broken. His problem there was that his excitement got the better of him and he began selling seasons tickets in Hamilton for a team that he did not yet own, in a market that was not yet approved.
While Balsillie’s behavior has poisoned his reputation with the NHL governors, what he has going for him here is that the judge will be the final one to approve the sale of the Coyotes. If Balsillie’s deal is identical to Reinsdorf’s in regards to terms and conditions, it will be difficult for the NHL not to approve both deals in principle without showing malice towards Balsillie.
This would put the decision in the hands of the judge and that is where Balsillie needs it to be. The big question is whether Balsillie can stomach playing this game and stop proclaiming what he intends to do. If he can keep his mouth shut, I think he has a play to make here. Once he owns the team, and once the attendance figures are not met in Glendale, he can then buy out the lease and make his case for his new market.
Balsillie’s exposure with this strategy is that prior to the lease in Glendale being bought out the NHL could fast track expansion to southern Ontario. What the NHL has to be careful with is to be above board in its dealings with Reinsdorf. Balsillie’s lawyers will be all over the details and all documents that pertain to the sale must be filed with the court. Balsillie’s one big advantage is that this sale will be settled in the courtroom, not the boardroom. The question is, will he be willing to play the game?
So instead of spoiling my Saturday by trying to deal with both issues, let’s get the Reinsdorf offer out of the way first. The most important thing to watch in this offer is what the new lease deal is with Glendale. Balsillie’s legal team will be all over this, and if the details of the new lease deal are not spelled out up front you can bet that they will be after the courts to make this public knowledge.
I do not think that you will find large subsidies in this lease. Arizona law prohibits such subsidies to private companies, and politically such subsidies would not be palatable to the taxpayers of Glendale in this economic climate. Realizing that no money would come to Glendale by forcing the Coyotes to fold, I believe that the new lease will contain a buyout clause where Reinsdorf would be able to break the lease if certain attendance figures are not met. Should such a clause be exercised down the road, Reinsdorf may well have an understanding with the NHL that he will be able to deduct the cost of breaking the lease from any relocation fee.
Once all this is all out in the open I believe that Balsillie’s lawyers will demand to have the opportunity to make a bid based on the same Glendale lease concessions. If they are smart, and patient, they will be willing to make a new bid without the stipulation of being able to move the franchise. A buyout clause in the lease would already make the Coyotes a moveable franchise. Remember, Balsillie was willing to buy the Penguins without a guarantee that he could move them to Ontario. He was willing to keep the team in Pittsburgh if a new arena deal was reached. What broke that deal was the late NHL demand that he sign an amendment to the purchase agreement promising that he would not move the team even if a new arena was not built.
In Nashville, he again was willing to buy the team and move it once attendance figures were not reached and the lease could be broken. His problem there was that his excitement got the better of him and he began selling seasons tickets in Hamilton for a team that he did not yet own, in a market that was not yet approved.
While Balsillie’s behavior has poisoned his reputation with the NHL governors, what he has going for him here is that the judge will be the final one to approve the sale of the Coyotes. If Balsillie’s deal is identical to Reinsdorf’s in regards to terms and conditions, it will be difficult for the NHL not to approve both deals in principle without showing malice towards Balsillie.
This would put the decision in the hands of the judge and that is where Balsillie needs it to be. The big question is whether Balsillie can stomach playing this game and stop proclaiming what he intends to do. If he can keep his mouth shut, I think he has a play to make here. Once he owns the team, and once the attendance figures are not met in Glendale, he can then buy out the lease and make his case for his new market.
Balsillie’s exposure with this strategy is that prior to the lease in Glendale being bought out the NHL could fast track expansion to southern Ontario. What the NHL has to be careful with is to be above board in its dealings with Reinsdorf. Balsillie’s lawyers will be all over the details and all documents that pertain to the sale must be filed with the court. Balsillie’s one big advantage is that this sale will be settled in the courtroom, not the boardroom. The question is, will he be willing to play the game?
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
NHL Mock Draft
With the heat starting to build on this year’s draft, here is my view on how things could turn out if all goes right for Burke and his plan.
1. NY Islanders Victor Hedman D
Islanders receive a little sweetner from the team picking at number two and take the surest bet in the draft. Size, mobility and the ability to anchor the defense for years.
2. Toronto (from Tampa) John Tavares C
Burke gets his man. Leafs flip picks with Tampa trading Kaberle, Stajan, Grabovski and their 7 pick for the big contracts of Malone, Meszaros and the number 2 pick.
3. Colorado Matt Duchene C
Safest bet up front with speed to burn and a more advanced all round game than Tavares. May well be the best offensive player taken in the draft.
4. Atlanta Evander Kane LW
A solid pick that the fans will love. Aggressive with loads of offensive skills that may well replace Kovalchuk as the face of the franchise in a few years.
5. Ottawa (from LA) Brayden Schenn C
Tampa Bay decides to keep Lecavalier, so Kings swing a trade for Heatley as their marquee player and flip picks with the Sens. Schenn brother rivalry will play out for years to come in the battle of Ontario.
6. Phoenix Jared Cowen D
Imposing size combined with skating skills make him a great pick as a future shut down defenseman. If Leafs don’t move up, this could be a target for Burke.
7. Tampa Bay (from Toronto) Oliver Ekman-Larsson D
Would love it if Cowen is still here, but if he’s not, Tampa sticks with its need on defense and takes the next best defenseman. Some Kaberle like skills with more size.
8. Dallas Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson LW
Modano is nearing the end of the road so Dallas is thrilled to select a player with flash and a great offensive upside.
9. LA Kings (from Ottawa) Scott Glennie RW
With strength down the middle already, the Kings pass on Kadri and add depth to their wings with this solid two way player.
10. Edmonton Nazem Kadri C
A speed player for the speed team that the fans will just love as he fills out and adds strength to his body.
Skipping down to number 15, the Leafs make a trade with Anaheim. The Leafs agree to pick up J S Giguere and the remaining two years of his $6 million cap hit along with the number 15 pick. Going to Anaheim are Toskala with only one year left at $4 million and Ian White. With the number 15 pick, the Leafs select 6’3 defenseman John Moore. If you don’t know who he is, in two to three years you will love this pick.
1. NY Islanders Victor Hedman D
Islanders receive a little sweetner from the team picking at number two and take the surest bet in the draft. Size, mobility and the ability to anchor the defense for years.
2. Toronto (from Tampa) John Tavares C
Burke gets his man. Leafs flip picks with Tampa trading Kaberle, Stajan, Grabovski and their 7 pick for the big contracts of Malone, Meszaros and the number 2 pick.
3. Colorado Matt Duchene C
Safest bet up front with speed to burn and a more advanced all round game than Tavares. May well be the best offensive player taken in the draft.
4. Atlanta Evander Kane LW
A solid pick that the fans will love. Aggressive with loads of offensive skills that may well replace Kovalchuk as the face of the franchise in a few years.
5. Ottawa (from LA) Brayden Schenn C
Tampa Bay decides to keep Lecavalier, so Kings swing a trade for Heatley as their marquee player and flip picks with the Sens. Schenn brother rivalry will play out for years to come in the battle of Ontario.
6. Phoenix Jared Cowen D
Imposing size combined with skating skills make him a great pick as a future shut down defenseman. If Leafs don’t move up, this could be a target for Burke.
7. Tampa Bay (from Toronto) Oliver Ekman-Larsson D
Would love it if Cowen is still here, but if he’s not, Tampa sticks with its need on defense and takes the next best defenseman. Some Kaberle like skills with more size.
8. Dallas Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson LW
Modano is nearing the end of the road so Dallas is thrilled to select a player with flash and a great offensive upside.
9. LA Kings (from Ottawa) Scott Glennie RW
With strength down the middle already, the Kings pass on Kadri and add depth to their wings with this solid two way player.
10. Edmonton Nazem Kadri C
A speed player for the speed team that the fans will just love as he fills out and adds strength to his body.
Skipping down to number 15, the Leafs make a trade with Anaheim. The Leafs agree to pick up J S Giguere and the remaining two years of his $6 million cap hit along with the number 15 pick. Going to Anaheim are Toskala with only one year left at $4 million and Ian White. With the number 15 pick, the Leafs select 6’3 defenseman John Moore. If you don’t know who he is, in two to three years you will love this pick.
Monday, June 22, 2009
Raptors Draft Week
Let’s take a look at the Raptors off season, and so far only one real move. That was the trade acquiring Reggie Evans for Jason Kapono. There are two things I like about this trade. First off, Bryan Colangelo does not fall in love with his moves to the point that he won’t change direction. Kapono was a big free agent signing for the Raptors, but it simply has not worked out unless you’re big on getting a Raptor into the skills competition.
The Raptors are not a drive to the basket, bang inside kind of team, so the openings for Kapono outside do not exist. Without his shot fitting naturally into the offense, there really isn’t a big role for him here since his defense is a liability and he can not create his own shot. Bryan knows this and was very fortunate to be able to move Kapono for a piece that the Raptors can really use.
In picking up Reggie Evans, they get a bit of a Charles Oakley light. A number that doesn’t look impressive is the 4.6 rebounds per game, but when you realize that Evans only played 14.4 minutes a game last year that’s not a bad number at all. Numbers aside, the best thing about Evans is that he’s not liked by the other players in the NBA and that is a good thing. What Evans brings is a grit that will make the Raptors a lot less easy to play against. He is also respected for his work ethic so he will not be afraid to speak up in the locker room if one of the boys are dogging it. Make no mistake about it, Evans is not going to be a star player on the Raptors, but he is a real step in the right direction. It also helps that he gives the Raps a bit more salary flexibility.
One thing we will be able to learn on draft night is what the Raps think of Calderon and Ukic. Calderon is a good point guard who takes care of the ball and can be trusted to run the offense. He is adequate as a starter, but is not really an all star. The only concern I have is his tendency to pick up nagging injuries. That brings us to Ukic and whether the Raps brain trust believes that he can handle the back up roll and be a fill in starter. If they are high on Ukic they do not need to address the point guard spot with their first pick in the draft. If they have concerns, then a player like Brandon Jennings or Jonny Flynn might be in their sites. Picking one of these two players won’t help the Raps much next year, but either could be their point guard of the future if that’s there long term plan.
If the Raps are willing to roll the dice with Calderon and Ukic, I see them looking at trying to fill their need to get more out of the 2/3 positions. At their draft spot, DeMar DeRozan would be a great pick if he’s still available. Since DeRozan may be gone when the Raps pick, another possibility with more immediate help but less upside is Gerald Henderson. He will be available when the Raps pick and they might even be able to slide down a few spots if he’s their choice.
One name that I’ve been seeing slip down some draft boards is Jordan Hill. If he’s available when the Raps pick they’d have to toss all the other plans to the side and snap him up. Being able to snare Hill would also help the Raps in position for the post CB4 era which I think is where that issue will play out.
The other piece to watch is what happens with Marion. Will the Raps be able to sign him to a reasonable contract and go with a Bosh/Bargnani/Marion front court, or what can they engineer with a trade? The key for this season is to get all the questions answered early and let Triano know what he’s dealing with from day one of training camp. If the team starts well the Bosh questions can be put to the side, but if the team falters out of the gate the Bosh questions will start immediately and the season could get ugly real quickly.
For draft night, my sense is that the Raps would love to get DeMar DeRozan and that they are more likely to slide back in this draft if their target player(s) are not available then they are to move up.
The Raptors are not a drive to the basket, bang inside kind of team, so the openings for Kapono outside do not exist. Without his shot fitting naturally into the offense, there really isn’t a big role for him here since his defense is a liability and he can not create his own shot. Bryan knows this and was very fortunate to be able to move Kapono for a piece that the Raptors can really use.
In picking up Reggie Evans, they get a bit of a Charles Oakley light. A number that doesn’t look impressive is the 4.6 rebounds per game, but when you realize that Evans only played 14.4 minutes a game last year that’s not a bad number at all. Numbers aside, the best thing about Evans is that he’s not liked by the other players in the NBA and that is a good thing. What Evans brings is a grit that will make the Raptors a lot less easy to play against. He is also respected for his work ethic so he will not be afraid to speak up in the locker room if one of the boys are dogging it. Make no mistake about it, Evans is not going to be a star player on the Raptors, but he is a real step in the right direction. It also helps that he gives the Raps a bit more salary flexibility.
One thing we will be able to learn on draft night is what the Raps think of Calderon and Ukic. Calderon is a good point guard who takes care of the ball and can be trusted to run the offense. He is adequate as a starter, but is not really an all star. The only concern I have is his tendency to pick up nagging injuries. That brings us to Ukic and whether the Raps brain trust believes that he can handle the back up roll and be a fill in starter. If they are high on Ukic they do not need to address the point guard spot with their first pick in the draft. If they have concerns, then a player like Brandon Jennings or Jonny Flynn might be in their sites. Picking one of these two players won’t help the Raps much next year, but either could be their point guard of the future if that’s there long term plan.
If the Raps are willing to roll the dice with Calderon and Ukic, I see them looking at trying to fill their need to get more out of the 2/3 positions. At their draft spot, DeMar DeRozan would be a great pick if he’s still available. Since DeRozan may be gone when the Raps pick, another possibility with more immediate help but less upside is Gerald Henderson. He will be available when the Raps pick and they might even be able to slide down a few spots if he’s their choice.
One name that I’ve been seeing slip down some draft boards is Jordan Hill. If he’s available when the Raps pick they’d have to toss all the other plans to the side and snap him up. Being able to snare Hill would also help the Raps in position for the post CB4 era which I think is where that issue will play out.
The other piece to watch is what happens with Marion. Will the Raps be able to sign him to a reasonable contract and go with a Bosh/Bargnani/Marion front court, or what can they engineer with a trade? The key for this season is to get all the questions answered early and let Triano know what he’s dealing with from day one of training camp. If the team starts well the Bosh questions can be put to the side, but if the team falters out of the gate the Bosh questions will start immediately and the season could get ugly real quickly.
For draft night, my sense is that the Raps would love to get DeMar DeRozan and that they are more likely to slide back in this draft if their target player(s) are not available then they are to move up.
Sunday, June 21, 2009
Thinking Three Way
Everyone does mock drafts this time of year, but let me take a shot at a blockbuster draft day trade. Heading into the draft I think there is a trade to be made for the Leafs involving Tampa and LA, so how about a blockbuster.
When looking at any trade you have to look at the motivation for each team. Usually the teams involved in a trade are trying to achieve different things, so each team can get some of what they want. What helps get the Leafs involved is the ability to take on some bad contracts which they should be willing to do, if they also get assets that fit with their long term goals.
First let’s look at the Kings. Rumors came out a week ago with talk of the Kings being willing to move Jack Johnson and their 5th pick for Chris Pronger. That move didn’t make sense to me because of Pronger’s age and salary. However, with Doughty as their stud defenseman of the future, I can see them moving Johnson before they have to give him his big contract, if they can pick up the high priced superstar they want to be the face of their franchise. Ok, that was a long way of saying if they can get Vincent Lecavalier. I see the Kings being willing to move Johnson, Handzus and their 5th pick, for Lecavalier and a young defenseman with potential like Ian White. The Kings would love someone to pick up Handzus and his $4 million cap hit for the next two years since they already have Kopitar and Stoll that they would slot in as their two and three centers behind Lecavalier. Salary wise these deal is basically a wash for the Kings, and they pick up the face of their franchise that they can market.
Tampa looks like a team that is a world away from where they were just one short year ago. Last they were the cowboys of the league with their new owners throwing around money to take their team the next step. That didn’t quite work out did it? Today they’re an organization in disarray and just over one week away from having Lecavalier’s $10 million no trade contract kicking in. They’re also bogged down with long term commitments to Malone (6 more years at $4.5 million per) and Meszaros (5 years at a back loaded $4 million). What they have working for them is Stamkos and the number two pick this year.
I’d like to see Tampa give up Lecavalier, Malone and Meszaros, and pick up Kaberle, Kubina and Grabovski. Talent wise this may not be ideal since they are giving up the best player in the deal, but it saves Tampa over $8 million in salary next year and more importantly gets them out from under three long term contracts. You may laugh at them giving up Lecavalier, but I think a long term deal at $10 million per year is something the current owners cannot afford to commit to. As to the future, they still have Stamkos and will be able to add either Tavares or Hedman which is not bad at all.
What would all this do for the Leafs? They would lose Kaberle, Kubina, Grabovski and White, while picking up Johnson, Meszaros, Malone, Handzus and the 5th pick in this year’s draft. This is an addition of $11 million to the Leafs salary when you figure out the cost of signing Johnson to an extension. That would pretty much take the Leafs out of the bidding for the major free agents for this year, but it gives them a nucleus that I like. The defense would have three young horses in Johnson, Schenn and Meszaros. Up front Handzus and Malone are useful but expensive, but by drafting at 5 and 7 we can look at picking up two forwards like Brayden Schenn and Magnus Svensson-Paajarvi.
There’s risk and reward for all sides in this proposed deal, but I think it helps all the teams get something that they are looking for. Its likely much too big to pull off by next Friday, but let’s see if any of these pieces get moved.
When looking at any trade you have to look at the motivation for each team. Usually the teams involved in a trade are trying to achieve different things, so each team can get some of what they want. What helps get the Leafs involved is the ability to take on some bad contracts which they should be willing to do, if they also get assets that fit with their long term goals.
First let’s look at the Kings. Rumors came out a week ago with talk of the Kings being willing to move Jack Johnson and their 5th pick for Chris Pronger. That move didn’t make sense to me because of Pronger’s age and salary. However, with Doughty as their stud defenseman of the future, I can see them moving Johnson before they have to give him his big contract, if they can pick up the high priced superstar they want to be the face of their franchise. Ok, that was a long way of saying if they can get Vincent Lecavalier. I see the Kings being willing to move Johnson, Handzus and their 5th pick, for Lecavalier and a young defenseman with potential like Ian White. The Kings would love someone to pick up Handzus and his $4 million cap hit for the next two years since they already have Kopitar and Stoll that they would slot in as their two and three centers behind Lecavalier. Salary wise these deal is basically a wash for the Kings, and they pick up the face of their franchise that they can market.
Tampa looks like a team that is a world away from where they were just one short year ago. Last they were the cowboys of the league with their new owners throwing around money to take their team the next step. That didn’t quite work out did it? Today they’re an organization in disarray and just over one week away from having Lecavalier’s $10 million no trade contract kicking in. They’re also bogged down with long term commitments to Malone (6 more years at $4.5 million per) and Meszaros (5 years at a back loaded $4 million). What they have working for them is Stamkos and the number two pick this year.
I’d like to see Tampa give up Lecavalier, Malone and Meszaros, and pick up Kaberle, Kubina and Grabovski. Talent wise this may not be ideal since they are giving up the best player in the deal, but it saves Tampa over $8 million in salary next year and more importantly gets them out from under three long term contracts. You may laugh at them giving up Lecavalier, but I think a long term deal at $10 million per year is something the current owners cannot afford to commit to. As to the future, they still have Stamkos and will be able to add either Tavares or Hedman which is not bad at all.
What would all this do for the Leafs? They would lose Kaberle, Kubina, Grabovski and White, while picking up Johnson, Meszaros, Malone, Handzus and the 5th pick in this year’s draft. This is an addition of $11 million to the Leafs salary when you figure out the cost of signing Johnson to an extension. That would pretty much take the Leafs out of the bidding for the major free agents for this year, but it gives them a nucleus that I like. The defense would have three young horses in Johnson, Schenn and Meszaros. Up front Handzus and Malone are useful but expensive, but by drafting at 5 and 7 we can look at picking up two forwards like Brayden Schenn and Magnus Svensson-Paajarvi.
There’s risk and reward for all sides in this proposed deal, but I think it helps all the teams get something that they are looking for. Its likely much too big to pull off by next Friday, but let’s see if any of these pieces get moved.
Saturday, June 20, 2009
Sedins, No Trade Times Two
So the Sedin brothers are asking for 12 year contracts with an annual cap hit of $5.3 per player, per season. I love them as hockey players, and they would look great in the Leafs blue and white, but I wouldn’t touch that deal with a ten foot pole.
The $5.3 million per season is a good number. It would be an advantage to the club next year, likely a bit of a pain for a year or two while the league cap number goes down, and then again a good number for a couple more years until their age catches up to them, or they run into injuries. After that you’d have a cap hit of over $10 million per year tied up on two players who are approaching age 40 and who can not be traded.
I’ve heard the argument that the cap will be way up by then, but I must have missed the guaranteed economic forecast for 10 years out, and the guarantees on NHL revenues when we still have struggling teams in the sun belt. Though I must admit that Balsillie / Bettman court case should be dying down by then, maybe.
The point that really concerns me about any deal with the Sedins is that you have to take both of them. Sure I’d love to have both of them on my team today, but what I have a major push back on is that I have to take them as a package.
With the Sedins looking upon themselves as a package, they are basically demanding two no trade contracts since the contracts that they sign will not allow them to be split up. Would I consider a 12 year no trade contract for any one person? Well, maybe Zetterberg, but maybe not. But I definitely would not consider a 12 year no trade contract for two players.
Being in Leaf country, we have all lived through the pain of no trade contracts when they start to go bad. The Leafs have wanted to move Tucker, Kaberle, Sundin and Kubina recently in deals that would have greatly helped the team. If these four did not have no trade contracts the Leafs would likely have Mike Richards, Chris Higgins, additional high draft picks, whatever San Jose was going to pay for Kubina and not have Tucker on the books for another three years at $1 million dollars each. We’d have more youth today and Burke would be looking at next weeks draft with may more cards to play. None of those trades were possible because each of these players had no trade contracts.
I’ve read suggestions that a five year deal at a slightly higher cap hit would be worth doing with the brothers. Maybe I’d look at it since they’d only be 33 by the time the deal ends, but I think I’d take a pass on it simply because I think we have to make a break with no trade contracts if possible. The Kaberle and McCabe contracts looked good in their day too, but you can’t project how your team will change and what you may want to do over that length of time.
It was great to hear the Niedermayer brothers’ attitude towards playing together. They said that they’d love to continue playing on the same team, but they realize that it may not be possible so they will play wherever their careers take them.
In today’s salary cap NHL, I don’t think you can afford to tie up that much money on two players that you can’t move. My suggestion is pass on the Sedins, and if we want a brother act in Toronto, let’s go get Brayden Schenn.
The $5.3 million per season is a good number. It would be an advantage to the club next year, likely a bit of a pain for a year or two while the league cap number goes down, and then again a good number for a couple more years until their age catches up to them, or they run into injuries. After that you’d have a cap hit of over $10 million per year tied up on two players who are approaching age 40 and who can not be traded.
I’ve heard the argument that the cap will be way up by then, but I must have missed the guaranteed economic forecast for 10 years out, and the guarantees on NHL revenues when we still have struggling teams in the sun belt. Though I must admit that Balsillie / Bettman court case should be dying down by then, maybe.
The point that really concerns me about any deal with the Sedins is that you have to take both of them. Sure I’d love to have both of them on my team today, but what I have a major push back on is that I have to take them as a package.
With the Sedins looking upon themselves as a package, they are basically demanding two no trade contracts since the contracts that they sign will not allow them to be split up. Would I consider a 12 year no trade contract for any one person? Well, maybe Zetterberg, but maybe not. But I definitely would not consider a 12 year no trade contract for two players.
Being in Leaf country, we have all lived through the pain of no trade contracts when they start to go bad. The Leafs have wanted to move Tucker, Kaberle, Sundin and Kubina recently in deals that would have greatly helped the team. If these four did not have no trade contracts the Leafs would likely have Mike Richards, Chris Higgins, additional high draft picks, whatever San Jose was going to pay for Kubina and not have Tucker on the books for another three years at $1 million dollars each. We’d have more youth today and Burke would be looking at next weeks draft with may more cards to play. None of those trades were possible because each of these players had no trade contracts.
I’ve read suggestions that a five year deal at a slightly higher cap hit would be worth doing with the brothers. Maybe I’d look at it since they’d only be 33 by the time the deal ends, but I think I’d take a pass on it simply because I think we have to make a break with no trade contracts if possible. The Kaberle and McCabe contracts looked good in their day too, but you can’t project how your team will change and what you may want to do over that length of time.
It was great to hear the Niedermayer brothers’ attitude towards playing together. They said that they’d love to continue playing on the same team, but they realize that it may not be possible so they will play wherever their careers take them.
In today’s salary cap NHL, I don’t think you can afford to tie up that much money on two players that you can’t move. My suggestion is pass on the Sedins, and if we want a brother act in Toronto, let’s go get Brayden Schenn.
Friday, June 19, 2009
NHL Draft Minus One Week – Leaf Thoughts
With one week to go all the GM’s are focused on what may be the most important two weeks of the upcoming hockey season. From next Friday’s draft we’re less then a week to free agency, and a week after that most of the big names should be gone and the lions share of the hockey budgets committed.
Who to listen to and who to believe? That’s easy, nobody. This is the time for misdirection about what you’re trying to do while setting the groundwork for how you’re going to execute your true plan. The problem is you’ve got thirty GM’s all working their own plans so your plan has to be fluid in its detail, but true to your long term goal.
A few wildcards always make life more interesting. First we’ve got Vinny Lecavalier who’s no trade clause kicks in on July 1 and will commit Tampa Bay to $10 million for the next seven years, if they don’t trade him in the next twelve days. With Tampa’s financial problems I don’t see the logic of committing that much money to one player. They have Stamkos who made great strides towards the end of last year as the face of the franchise in the future, and would get either Tavares or Hedman if they keep the number two pick in the draft. Logic tells me they move him to a team like the Kings that appear to want the star appeal of Lecavalier for some cheaper talent and depth. Getting rid of that contract will also make the team more attractive to a potential buyer if the team goes up for sale in the next year or two.
The second wild card is Heatley and his trade demand. It looks like Murray wants to get that done by the draft so that should keep things hopping going into draft night. Burke is bang on about not wanting to get involved with Heatley. All this talk about Burke being a hypocrite with his stance on Heatley when he signed Pronger years ago is meaningless. When you look at an athlete, you look at their drive to succeed on the ice and whether you trust them to be a part of you team. Trusting Pronger to perform in Anaheim was a no-brainer. Trusting Heatley to perform with a rebuilding team under the glare of Toronto’s media would require Burke to have no brain.
I hope that Burke is bluffing about trying to move up to get Tavares. I think the price will be way too high and Tavares is not a lock to be a franchise player. Unless the price to move to get Tavares drops, its too big of gamble to take. Picking at seven you will still pick up a great hockey asset. Best case, Brayden Schenn might still be there, worse case you’ll get either Magnus Svensson-Paajarvi or Jared Cowen. Any of these pieces would be a great addition for the Leafs and not cost the Leafs a thing.
What I’d be trying to do is pick up a second pick as high as possible in the first round. Assets that I’d look at moving are Kaberle, Grabovski and one of the second round picks that we acquired. What the Leafs can also do is take on a bad contract such as Ryan Malone, especially if they are giving up Kaberle’s contract. A direct deal with Tampa might be a possibility if they are desperate to drop salary and pick up assets that help immediately (Kaberle and Grabovski) but that’s likely shooting too high since you want to keep your existing first round pick. Instead, a three way deal involving Tampa and the Kings might make more sense since the Kings have an interest in Lecavalier and Toronto’s ability to take on contracts could be a big advantage in brokering a deal between those too. I’d rather have both the Kings pick at 5 and the Leafs pick at 7, then paying more and giving up our 7 pick to move up to Tampa’s number 2 pick. Picking at 5 and 7 would be great, and it would also give Burke an opportunity to trade the 5 pick to try and move to 4 or 3 either Duchene or Kane would be available.
If this can be done, the Leafs could have a possible blue chip nucleus of Luke Schenn and two of either Brayden Schenn, Duchene, Kane or Svensson-Paajarvi. When you add the potential of the two collegians that Burke picked up earlier, we’d have a very talented young core group that can grow and develop over the next few seasons.
Whatever happens, I think the next week will go a long way to determining what the future of the Leafs will look like. Sure it won’t be easy, but I’d be shooting for a second pick in the top 10 instead of trying to roll the dice on Tavares.
Whichever way it goes, I think Burke might be able to pull off some fireworks by the end of draft night.
Who to listen to and who to believe? That’s easy, nobody. This is the time for misdirection about what you’re trying to do while setting the groundwork for how you’re going to execute your true plan. The problem is you’ve got thirty GM’s all working their own plans so your plan has to be fluid in its detail, but true to your long term goal.
A few wildcards always make life more interesting. First we’ve got Vinny Lecavalier who’s no trade clause kicks in on July 1 and will commit Tampa Bay to $10 million for the next seven years, if they don’t trade him in the next twelve days. With Tampa’s financial problems I don’t see the logic of committing that much money to one player. They have Stamkos who made great strides towards the end of last year as the face of the franchise in the future, and would get either Tavares or Hedman if they keep the number two pick in the draft. Logic tells me they move him to a team like the Kings that appear to want the star appeal of Lecavalier for some cheaper talent and depth. Getting rid of that contract will also make the team more attractive to a potential buyer if the team goes up for sale in the next year or two.
The second wild card is Heatley and his trade demand. It looks like Murray wants to get that done by the draft so that should keep things hopping going into draft night. Burke is bang on about not wanting to get involved with Heatley. All this talk about Burke being a hypocrite with his stance on Heatley when he signed Pronger years ago is meaningless. When you look at an athlete, you look at their drive to succeed on the ice and whether you trust them to be a part of you team. Trusting Pronger to perform in Anaheim was a no-brainer. Trusting Heatley to perform with a rebuilding team under the glare of Toronto’s media would require Burke to have no brain.
I hope that Burke is bluffing about trying to move up to get Tavares. I think the price will be way too high and Tavares is not a lock to be a franchise player. Unless the price to move to get Tavares drops, its too big of gamble to take. Picking at seven you will still pick up a great hockey asset. Best case, Brayden Schenn might still be there, worse case you’ll get either Magnus Svensson-Paajarvi or Jared Cowen. Any of these pieces would be a great addition for the Leafs and not cost the Leafs a thing.
What I’d be trying to do is pick up a second pick as high as possible in the first round. Assets that I’d look at moving are Kaberle, Grabovski and one of the second round picks that we acquired. What the Leafs can also do is take on a bad contract such as Ryan Malone, especially if they are giving up Kaberle’s contract. A direct deal with Tampa might be a possibility if they are desperate to drop salary and pick up assets that help immediately (Kaberle and Grabovski) but that’s likely shooting too high since you want to keep your existing first round pick. Instead, a three way deal involving Tampa and the Kings might make more sense since the Kings have an interest in Lecavalier and Toronto’s ability to take on contracts could be a big advantage in brokering a deal between those too. I’d rather have both the Kings pick at 5 and the Leafs pick at 7, then paying more and giving up our 7 pick to move up to Tampa’s number 2 pick. Picking at 5 and 7 would be great, and it would also give Burke an opportunity to trade the 5 pick to try and move to 4 or 3 either Duchene or Kane would be available.
If this can be done, the Leafs could have a possible blue chip nucleus of Luke Schenn and two of either Brayden Schenn, Duchene, Kane or Svensson-Paajarvi. When you add the potential of the two collegians that Burke picked up earlier, we’d have a very talented young core group that can grow and develop over the next few seasons.
Whatever happens, I think the next week will go a long way to determining what the future of the Leafs will look like. Sure it won’t be easy, but I’d be shooting for a second pick in the top 10 instead of trying to roll the dice on Tavares.
Whichever way it goes, I think Burke might be able to pull off some fireworks by the end of draft night.
Thursday, June 18, 2009
Coyotes, What Now?
Now that we have the first big court ruling and have heard lots of posturing, let’s take a look at where we really are and where this is likely to go.
The way I like to look at this is to cut through the spin from all sides and look at some realities. The biggest reality is that it does not appear that any purchaser will be willing to commit to running a team in Glendale for the long term. The NHL has been trying to find such a buyer for a long time, and the financials of the Coyotes show that this does not make sense with the present state of the Glendale arena lease.
Balsillie’s major play was to try and force a quick auction where he hoped to be the only bidder. His major concern was not a potential local purchaser since I don’t think such an animal exists in the desert. However, his proposed timing for the auction would have made it hard for another group to join the auction with a bid to move the team. Don’t get me wrong, there are many groups that would love to do just that, but not many of these groups would want to join an auction that the NHL is opposed to. Unlike Balsillie, other groups planning to move a hockey team into southern Ontario plan to do it through the front door and have no desire to antagonize Bettman with an end run for the Coyotes.
Balsillie’s other hope may have been to get the NHL to turn down his ownership request, or his relocation request, and open the door to anti-trust legislation. The NHL wisely did not bite on this, and the quick timing that Balsillie’s proposal put upon the judge forced him to do that work for the NHL by dismissing Balsillie’s initial motion. At this point Balsillie has not been rejected by the NHL and anti-trust is not an issue.
What Balsillie has gained is the fact that the judge now is running the bankruptcy and not the NHL. What Balsillie has lost is the sense of urgency since he stated that he needed his purchase to be completed by June 29 to enable the transfer to Hamilton by next season. This deadline will pass and that will enable the judge and the NHL to work in a more controlled manner towards a sale.
The NHL’s dilemma is that nobody will commit long term to Glendale, but it already knows that. What the NHL will look for is a deal (likely with Reinsdorf) where the purchaser buys the team and officially agrees to keep the team in Glendale. For that to happen, a modification will have to be made to the Glendale lease to make it acceptable to the new owner.
This brings up the next major issue since one important item that was not ruled on by the judge was the Coyote’s ongoing lease with the city of Glendale. The powers that be in Glendale must realize that the Coyotes can not survive in their current location without financial subsidies. While they may like to do this, the problem is they likely can not. Politically, the taxpayers of Glendale would likely not agree to a $14-20 million subsidy for the new owner and legally such a deal would probably violate the state’s gift laws which limit such subsidies.
If Glendale sticks to its guns, no buyer will be found and the team may well fold with Glendale getting nothing. The most likely solution is for Glendale to agree to an amendment of the lease that would let the new owner move the team with a penalty of say $30 million if certain attendance figures are not met during the next two years. The local politicians can then use that money to impress their taxpayers and help with their own re-election chances.
These negotiations are likely being carried out at this very moment and will be critical to the NHL’s hopes of announcing a purchaser who will “officially” keep the team in Glendale.
To find the biggest loser in this scenario we just have to look under the bus, because that would be where the NHL has thrown him. The loser here is the current owner, Jerry Moyes. The NHL has already stated that they will find a new owner that will satisfy all legitimate creditors. They may as well of said all creditors except Jerry Moyes. Some of the Balsillie money that would have gone to Moyes will instead be put aside for the future buyout of the Glendale lease and the overall purchase price will be less since Moyes will not be deemed to be a legitimate creditor. Balsillie’s lawyers have already jumped on this and are trying to alert other owners of struggling NHL teams that they could be the next ones to be thrown under the same bus when the time comes from them to sell their teams.
If it plays out this way, then the NHL will be able to go before the court with their approved purchaser. At that time Balsillie may well come back with his revised bid which will be for more money, but will have more uncertainty associated with it. At that point Balsillie’s lawyers will try to uncover the side deals that are in place and that could get quite nasty and embarrassing for the NHL and the new purchaser and anti-trust could become an issue. This potential threat could be what Balsillie needs to get back in the game for the Coyotes.
Maybe that is Balsillie’s Plan B.
The way I like to look at this is to cut through the spin from all sides and look at some realities. The biggest reality is that it does not appear that any purchaser will be willing to commit to running a team in Glendale for the long term. The NHL has been trying to find such a buyer for a long time, and the financials of the Coyotes show that this does not make sense with the present state of the Glendale arena lease.
Balsillie’s major play was to try and force a quick auction where he hoped to be the only bidder. His major concern was not a potential local purchaser since I don’t think such an animal exists in the desert. However, his proposed timing for the auction would have made it hard for another group to join the auction with a bid to move the team. Don’t get me wrong, there are many groups that would love to do just that, but not many of these groups would want to join an auction that the NHL is opposed to. Unlike Balsillie, other groups planning to move a hockey team into southern Ontario plan to do it through the front door and have no desire to antagonize Bettman with an end run for the Coyotes.
Balsillie’s other hope may have been to get the NHL to turn down his ownership request, or his relocation request, and open the door to anti-trust legislation. The NHL wisely did not bite on this, and the quick timing that Balsillie’s proposal put upon the judge forced him to do that work for the NHL by dismissing Balsillie’s initial motion. At this point Balsillie has not been rejected by the NHL and anti-trust is not an issue.
What Balsillie has gained is the fact that the judge now is running the bankruptcy and not the NHL. What Balsillie has lost is the sense of urgency since he stated that he needed his purchase to be completed by June 29 to enable the transfer to Hamilton by next season. This deadline will pass and that will enable the judge and the NHL to work in a more controlled manner towards a sale.
The NHL’s dilemma is that nobody will commit long term to Glendale, but it already knows that. What the NHL will look for is a deal (likely with Reinsdorf) where the purchaser buys the team and officially agrees to keep the team in Glendale. For that to happen, a modification will have to be made to the Glendale lease to make it acceptable to the new owner.
This brings up the next major issue since one important item that was not ruled on by the judge was the Coyote’s ongoing lease with the city of Glendale. The powers that be in Glendale must realize that the Coyotes can not survive in their current location without financial subsidies. While they may like to do this, the problem is they likely can not. Politically, the taxpayers of Glendale would likely not agree to a $14-20 million subsidy for the new owner and legally such a deal would probably violate the state’s gift laws which limit such subsidies.
If Glendale sticks to its guns, no buyer will be found and the team may well fold with Glendale getting nothing. The most likely solution is for Glendale to agree to an amendment of the lease that would let the new owner move the team with a penalty of say $30 million if certain attendance figures are not met during the next two years. The local politicians can then use that money to impress their taxpayers and help with their own re-election chances.
These negotiations are likely being carried out at this very moment and will be critical to the NHL’s hopes of announcing a purchaser who will “officially” keep the team in Glendale.
To find the biggest loser in this scenario we just have to look under the bus, because that would be where the NHL has thrown him. The loser here is the current owner, Jerry Moyes. The NHL has already stated that they will find a new owner that will satisfy all legitimate creditors. They may as well of said all creditors except Jerry Moyes. Some of the Balsillie money that would have gone to Moyes will instead be put aside for the future buyout of the Glendale lease and the overall purchase price will be less since Moyes will not be deemed to be a legitimate creditor. Balsillie’s lawyers have already jumped on this and are trying to alert other owners of struggling NHL teams that they could be the next ones to be thrown under the same bus when the time comes from them to sell their teams.
If it plays out this way, then the NHL will be able to go before the court with their approved purchaser. At that time Balsillie may well come back with his revised bid which will be for more money, but will have more uncertainty associated with it. At that point Balsillie’s lawyers will try to uncover the side deals that are in place and that could get quite nasty and embarrassing for the NHL and the new purchaser and anti-trust could become an issue. This potential threat could be what Balsillie needs to get back in the game for the Coyotes.
Maybe that is Balsillie’s Plan B.
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