Kessel and RFA Issues

Phil Kessel may well be the most interesting RFA on the market this year. He is only 21, has blazing speed, a great shot and is coming off a 36 goal season. You would think that this would be the type of player that a team would automatically look to re-signing. That’s what makes the Kessel saga so interesting from many angles.

First off, Kessel like most 21 year olds is not perfect. His game has holes and playing on a line with Andre Savard can inflate your goal scoring figures. That being said, Kessel is a great young asset that most teams would love to have and as such he is in for a big raise. The problem for the Bruins is that they are pushing for a cup now and have salary cap issues, so they may well not be able to re-sign Kessel. Being a contender now, they do not want to pick up futures for him, so a trade for a quality puck moving defenseman like Kaberle was attractive to them.

The Leafs on the other hand are looking to have a competitive team a few years down the road so moving a Kaberle for a young player like Kessel makes great sense. What makes it interesting for the Leafs is Kessel’s RFA status. Questions have been asked as to whether the Leafs would trade for Kessel without being sure that they can re-sign him. My answer is an immediate and loud yes.

Yes, you ask? You’d trade Kaberle for Kessel and he could leave as an RFA in a matter of days, and you still say yes? The reason for the yes is RFA compensation and how that effectively limits what another team would bid for Kessel. Remember, as an RFA the Leafs could match any team’s offer, but if the other team offered more then the Leafs were willing to match, then the Leafs could opt for compensation.

I would grade Kessel as about a $4 million player and would look to sign him for something in that range. If another team were to offer him $5 million a season the Leafs would have a choice of matching that salary, or accepting compensation which would be a 1st, 2nd and 3rd round draft choice. In fact any bid over $3.923 million would receive that compensation. If the competing offer went up to $5.3 million, that team would have to toss in another 1st round pick in addition to those draft choices. It is highly debatable if any team would be willing to give up the compensation for signing Kessel to a contract of $4 million or more. So for trading Kaberle, the Leafs would receive either Kessel at a contract that they feel is reasonable, or a minimum of three draft choices including a first rounder. To me there’s not much of a downside.

All the talk about teams conspiring not to tend offers to other teams RFA’s is partially true, but you can also see how the compensation side works against such offers sheets being tabled. For the Leafs, they are far better off to trade for Kessel while he is an RFA, then to wait and try to sign him as an RFA and give up a minimum of three top draft choices when they are in rebuilding mode.

One unfortunate thing about the RFA rules is that they work against the weaker teams in the league. The value of the Islanders 1st draft choice is many times more than the value of the 1st draft choice of a Pittsburgh, Detroit or San Jose. Toronto being near the bottom of the league is not likely to make offers for top RFA’s for this reason. If you see an RFA offer from the Leafs it will likely be for under $2.6 million where the compensation is only a 2nd round pick, or under $1.3 where the compensation is a 3rd rounder. For offers under $863,156 no compensation is due.

The salary cap, economic climate and RFA rules make this an interesting time for NHL managers.