NHL Draft Minus One Week – Leaf Thoughts

With one week to go all the GM’s are focused on what may be the most important two weeks of the upcoming hockey season. From next Friday’s draft we’re less then a week to free agency, and a week after that most of the big names should be gone and the lions share of the hockey budgets committed.

Who to listen to and who to believe? That’s easy, nobody. This is the time for misdirection about what you’re trying to do while setting the groundwork for how you’re going to execute your true plan. The problem is you’ve got thirty GM’s all working their own plans so your plan has to be fluid in its detail, but true to your long term goal.

A few wildcards always make life more interesting. First we’ve got Vinny Lecavalier who’s no trade clause kicks in on July 1 and will commit Tampa Bay to $10 million for the next seven years, if they don’t trade him in the next twelve days. With Tampa’s financial problems I don’t see the logic of committing that much money to one player. They have Stamkos who made great strides towards the end of last year as the face of the franchise in the future, and would get either Tavares or Hedman if they keep the number two pick in the draft. Logic tells me they move him to a team like the Kings that appear to want the star appeal of Lecavalier for some cheaper talent and depth. Getting rid of that contract will also make the team more attractive to a potential buyer if the team goes up for sale in the next year or two.

The second wild card is Heatley and his trade demand. It looks like Murray wants to get that done by the draft so that should keep things hopping going into draft night. Burke is bang on about not wanting to get involved with Heatley. All this talk about Burke being a hypocrite with his stance on Heatley when he signed Pronger years ago is meaningless. When you look at an athlete, you look at their drive to succeed on the ice and whether you trust them to be a part of you team. Trusting Pronger to perform in Anaheim was a no-brainer. Trusting Heatley to perform with a rebuilding team under the glare of Toronto’s media would require Burke to have no brain.

I hope that Burke is bluffing about trying to move up to get Tavares. I think the price will be way too high and Tavares is not a lock to be a franchise player. Unless the price to move to get Tavares drops, its too big of gamble to take. Picking at seven you will still pick up a great hockey asset. Best case, Brayden Schenn might still be there, worse case you’ll get either Magnus Svensson-Paajarvi or Jared Cowen. Any of these pieces would be a great addition for the Leafs and not cost the Leafs a thing.

What I’d be trying to do is pick up a second pick as high as possible in the first round. Assets that I’d look at moving are Kaberle, Grabovski and one of the second round picks that we acquired. What the Leafs can also do is take on a bad contract such as Ryan Malone, especially if they are giving up Kaberle’s contract. A direct deal with Tampa might be a possibility if they are desperate to drop salary and pick up assets that help immediately (Kaberle and Grabovski) but that’s likely shooting too high since you want to keep your existing first round pick. Instead, a three way deal involving Tampa and the Kings might make more sense since the Kings have an interest in Lecavalier and Toronto’s ability to take on contracts could be a big advantage in brokering a deal between those too. I’d rather have both the Kings pick at 5 and the Leafs pick at 7, then paying more and giving up our 7 pick to move up to Tampa’s number 2 pick. Picking at 5 and 7 would be great, and it would also give Burke an opportunity to trade the 5 pick to try and move to 4 or 3 either Duchene or Kane would be available.

If this can be done, the Leafs could have a possible blue chip nucleus of Luke Schenn and two of either Brayden Schenn, Duchene, Kane or Svensson-Paajarvi. When you add the potential of the two collegians that Burke picked up earlier, we’d have a very talented young core group that can grow and develop over the next few seasons.

Whatever happens, I think the next week will go a long way to determining what the future of the Leafs will look like. Sure it won’t be easy, but I’d be shooting for a second pick in the top 10 instead of trying to roll the dice on Tavares.

Whichever way it goes, I think Burke might be able to pull off some fireworks by the end of draft night.