Halladay Future

Lots of talk yesterday about Halladay’s Blue Jay days being numbered. J.P is confirming that he would listen to offers for Halladay, but he’s saying that this is just business as usual. In this case, I think it is anything but business as usual.

Roy Halladay is the professional athlete playing in Toronto that I have the most respect for. He is one of the very best pitchers in the majors. He is a no nonsense guy with a professional attitude and he loves playing in Toronto. He’s never complained when the team has gone bad and he’s been the anchor of our pitching staff for years. Without Halladay on the Jays, the stature of the team diminishes.

Having said this, I think the chances are great that Halladay will be moved before the trade deadline. As usual these days, the problem is economics.

In his interviews yesterday Halladay confirmed that he loves playing in Toronto, but he also wants to play for a winner, soon. Halladay is a free agent after next season, so that means that the Jays would have to show the potential to be a winner this season, or next. To me, the chances of that happening look very slim, in fact non-existent.

This year the Jays have overachieved. Yet at this moment they sit in sixth spot in the wild card race and are a full seven games behind. Last night they were forced to start another rookie pitcher, Rzepczynki, and got another surprising great start. The result unfortunately was another loss. They simply do not have the horses to make a playoff run. On the Jays staff Halladay is really the only proven major league pitcher. The others are kids with great promise who have done a super job, but Halladay stands alone as the only true major league starter on the roster.

The problem for the Jays is that they can not afford to improve the team and Halladay becomes a free agent after next season. With the state of the economy, it is doubtful that the Jays will be increasing their budget in a meaningful fashion over the next couple of years. What will be happening however is that Rios’ contract will go from $6.4 million this year, to $10.2, $12.5, $12.5 and $13 million the next four years. Worse, Wells will go from $5.1 million this year, to $16.2, $26.6, $24.6 and $24.6 million the next four years.

With B.J. Ryan’s annual salary of $12 million coming off the books after next season, the Jays can afford to match a Yankee type offer and sign Halladay. But how do the Jays build a winner while they are stuck with Rios and Wells earning 25% of the team’s salary? If the Jays did re-sign Halladay, they will have half of their payroll committed to three players and Halladay will be a 34 year old pitcher when that contract starts. Does that make any sense?

If the Jays hope to keep Halladay, JP will be beating the bushes for any team that is willing to take the Wells and Rios contracts off his hands. Rios has picked up recently and his contract is likely moveable as a salary dump. Wells however, at roughly $25 million per year starting in 2011, will likely be an albatross around the franchise’s neck for another four years.

I will hate to see Halladay go, but I can not see how the Jays can compete within their current budget with both Wells and Halladay on the roster in 2011. Fans do not like to think that far ahead, but I think that JP has to look at finding the perfect deal for Halladay that will get the Jays a quality young player and two can’t miss prospects in return. Those kids and the current crop of young pitchers can develop while we watch Wells play out his contract.

This is not the future for the Jays that I want to see, but that is where I think this road is taking us.