Saturday, July 11, 2009

Leafs Up Front

Well I think we all like what Burke has done to rebuild the defense this off season. So while he heads off for his annual fishing week with other NHL execs, let’s have a look at where the Leafs stand up front at this moment.

The forwards are still a work in progress so we’re not sure who we will see at camp. The Leafs will trade a defenseman or two, and may well sign another free agent. Skill players like Tanguay and Afinogenov have fallen through the initial free agency frenzy and may see their price be lower then they had hoped. On the trade front players like Kessel, Sharp, Backes, Pominville, or even Vanek might be available in a deal involving Kaberle as the center piece from the Toronto side. I put Vanek on this list because he might be a salary that the Sabres may wish to get rid of, and the Leafs may be willing to pay for a 25 year old 40 goal first line winger.

With some moves yet to be made, the Leafs already have an interesting group of forwards coming to camp. At center, the current top four are Grabovski, Stajan, Wallin and Mitchell. If the Leafs feel good about Bozak stepping right in, or if they pick up a top center, I can see them moving Stajan this summer. Wallin and Mitchell should be competent third and fourth line centers. For the future we have Kadri and Didomenico though they are likely a couple of years away.

On the left side we have Ponikarovsky, Hagman, Blake, Tlusty and Stuart. I see Stuart making the team and being part of a grinding fourth line with Mitchell and Orr. Blake can still play the game, but his age and contract are the problem. He may not be movable, but after this year his actually salary drops down to $3 million (with the $4 million cap hit) so he could become more attractive come trade deadline time to a team looking for short term help and needing someone to eat up cap space while drawing a lower salary.

As things stand now, Kulemin will be given the shot to be a first line right winger. Behind him are Stempniak, Mayers and Orr. Hanson and Mitchell are the best known prospects here, but the player I am interested in seeing develop is Mikhail Stefanovich. Last year in Quebec junior hockey Stefanovich had 49 goals in 56 games, was a +30 and at age 19 he’s already 6’2 and 202.

With the exception of Blake, the contract situation looks good up front. Stempniak, Stajan, Ponikarovsky and Mayers are not part of the future. Poni and Stajan are likely immediate trade bait and may fit into a Kaberle package. The good news is that all four have contracts that expire at the end of this season. That represents $8 million of cap space that will be freed up. These players moving out of the organization will open up ice time for the kids coming up, and their salaries coming off the books open up cap space for another top six forward.

With Burke, the Leafs will stop the love affair with players that are really not part of a championship mix. Matt Stajan is a great example. I love him for his character and he’s a fine hockey player. But, is he a top two center for a championship team? No. Does he have the grit you want centering your third or fourth line? Not really. Unfortunately he’s just the type of nice kid that plays on a perennial Leaf team that keeps missing the playoffs and becomes a fan favorite.

These are the type of tough questions that Burke will ask at each roster spot. We will lose some of our favorite players over the years, but finally the goal is to build a cup contender.

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