The Raptors camp begins this week and this year is a pivotal one for the franchise. If everything comes together the team will make the playoffs, win a round or two, re-sign Bosh after the season and be a contender for years to come with Triano as coach. If the team starts off slow, the season could quickly become a disaster, the Bosh speculation will be a daily distraction with him leaving the team via trade or free agency, Triano’s run as coach will be short lived and next summer will be another massive rebuild.
To get ready for the season Colangelo performed a major makeover. Only three significant players are left from last year’s team. The job of the coaches during camp is critical and not easy. They have to construct a Raptor team that is tougher than any in recent memory. The team has to play defense every night, hit the boards and reduce uncontested shots and easy drives to the basket by the opposition. The team is eleven deep with players that are worthy of being in the rotation, but that number will have to be whittled down to a tighter rotation.
The biggest wildcard for the team is the first round pick DeMar DeRozan. For the team to reach its potential DeRozan should be the starting shooting guard. He adds athleticism that the team sorely needs at the wing positions. Even if his shooting touch does not develop in year one his physical skills should let him guard opposition guards straight up and he has the quickness to drive to the basket. The team will give him every chance to earn a starting job and he may even be able to guard some small forwards late in games. Should DeRozan not be ready to start Belinelli can, but he would be better coming off the bench and providing instant offense as part of the second unit.
Calderon appears to have recovered from the injuries that slowed him down last year and should be able to resume the play that made him a top point guard the previous season. Jack provides a very capable back up at the point and can fill in as a starter in the event of injury given Calderon time to fully recover. Calderon and Jack will also see court time together on occasion when the Raptors want to go small.
Up front the starters are Bosh, Bargnani and Turkoglu. If Bargnani can pick up where he left off last year he will provide more then most fans expect. Together, the three will provide defensive match up problems for the opposition but the question will be their rebounding and defense.
The conventional wisdom is that Evans and Nesterovic will be the main two bigs off the bench. Both are solid veterans, eat space, and Evans will add a touch of toughness that the fans have not seen since the Oakley days. Antoine Wright may be a defensive specialist late in games, but the surprise here could be Amir Johnson. Not much is expected of Johnson, but if the Raptors can bring out some of the potential that made him an NBA draft choice at 18 he could be a high energy player to play defense and pound the glass off the bench. Johnson may well disappear and fall out of the NBA but he could prove to be a diamond in the rough that Triano and Iavaroni may be able to reclaim.
This preseason most eyes will be watching Turkoglu to see how he fits and Bosh to see if he will emerge as a true superstar that can carry a team on his shoulders. While these will be the high profile stories of camp it will also be fascinating to see how ready DeRozan is, if Bargnani can pick up from where he left off last season, and how the rest of the rotation shapes up.
This is a big year for the Raptors and with the changes Colangelo made this off season there are no shortage of stories to follow.
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Monday, September 28, 2009
NFL Top 10 and Week 4 Top Picks
1 - NY Giants 3-0 (Last week 1)
Dominating defense by the Giants in a 24-0 win on the road against the Bucs and that was without two of their defensive stalwarts.
2 - NY Jets 3-0 (Last week 2)
A bigger test for the Jets with Tennessee visiting last week. The offense went into a funk for the middle part of the game but did enough to stay undefeated.
3 - New Orleans 3-0 (Last week 5)
A solid road win that was never really in doubt against a Bills team that is playing good football. A challenge next week when they host the Jets.
4 - Baltimore 3-0 (Last week 6)
Sure they were only hosting the Browns, but a dominating 34-3 serves as a warm up for next weekends trip to Foxborough.
5 - Indianapolis 3-0 (Last week 7)
Another easy win, but an impressive air show against the Cardinals on the road. 379 yards and 4 TD passes for Peyton, but they did allow 332 yards passing.
6 - Minnesota 3-0 (Last week 3)
A bit of a tumble down the rankings despite the win against a tough 49ers team. Does Favre have another miracle up his sleeve for next week when the Packers come to visit?
7 - New England 2-1 (Last week 8)
The Patriots may be rounding into form with their home win against the Falcons. Next week is the test against the Ravens.
8 - Philadelphia 2-1 (Last week unranked)
The Eagles have not missed a beat with Kolb at the helm filling in for the injured McNabb. Another 300+ yard passing day backed up by their top 5 defense.
9 - Chicago 2-1 (Last week 9)
A solid win on the coast at Seattle keeps them in the top 10 and ahead of the Packers. Not sure how they’ll do when the schedule starts to toughen up.
10 - San Francisco 2-1 (Last week 10)
A heartbreaking lost on the last second miracle by Favre. The loss of Gore will hurt but they still should be able to get past the Rams with the tough brand of ball they are playing under Singletary.
Top Picks for Week 4 (Last week 2-1, Season 6-3)
Take Green Bay and 3 ½ points at Minnesota. I see this game staying within a field goal so I’m jumping on the early line to take the Pack against Favre.
Take Dallas and give the 2 ½ points on the road in Denver. The Broncos are 3-0 but I’m looking for that to end against a Dallas team that needs to keep pace with the Giants and Eagles.
Take San Diego and 6 points at Pittsburgh. Hard to bet the Charges at Pittsburgh, but so far the Steelers have done nothing to impress and 6 points are too hard to reset with Rivers playing great early in the season.
Dominating defense by the Giants in a 24-0 win on the road against the Bucs and that was without two of their defensive stalwarts.
2 - NY Jets 3-0 (Last week 2)
A bigger test for the Jets with Tennessee visiting last week. The offense went into a funk for the middle part of the game but did enough to stay undefeated.
3 - New Orleans 3-0 (Last week 5)
A solid road win that was never really in doubt against a Bills team that is playing good football. A challenge next week when they host the Jets.
4 - Baltimore 3-0 (Last week 6)
Sure they were only hosting the Browns, but a dominating 34-3 serves as a warm up for next weekends trip to Foxborough.
5 - Indianapolis 3-0 (Last week 7)
Another easy win, but an impressive air show against the Cardinals on the road. 379 yards and 4 TD passes for Peyton, but they did allow 332 yards passing.
6 - Minnesota 3-0 (Last week 3)
A bit of a tumble down the rankings despite the win against a tough 49ers team. Does Favre have another miracle up his sleeve for next week when the Packers come to visit?
7 - New England 2-1 (Last week 8)
The Patriots may be rounding into form with their home win against the Falcons. Next week is the test against the Ravens.
8 - Philadelphia 2-1 (Last week unranked)
The Eagles have not missed a beat with Kolb at the helm filling in for the injured McNabb. Another 300+ yard passing day backed up by their top 5 defense.
9 - Chicago 2-1 (Last week 9)
A solid win on the coast at Seattle keeps them in the top 10 and ahead of the Packers. Not sure how they’ll do when the schedule starts to toughen up.
10 - San Francisco 2-1 (Last week 10)
A heartbreaking lost on the last second miracle by Favre. The loss of Gore will hurt but they still should be able to get past the Rams with the tough brand of ball they are playing under Singletary.
Top Picks for Week 4 (Last week 2-1, Season 6-3)
Take Green Bay and 3 ½ points at Minnesota. I see this game staying within a field goal so I’m jumping on the early line to take the Pack against Favre.
Take Dallas and give the 2 ½ points on the road in Denver. The Broncos are 3-0 but I’m looking for that to end against a Dallas team that needs to keep pace with the Giants and Eagles.
Take San Diego and 6 points at Pittsburgh. Hard to bet the Charges at Pittsburgh, but so far the Steelers have done nothing to impress and 6 points are too hard to reset with Rivers playing great early in the season.
Friday, September 25, 2009
NHL East Projections
With less then a week to go until the puck drops its time to make our projections for the coming season. I break the conference into four teams with the Bruins and Penguins as the class of the East. Both have solid teams with no apparent weaknesses and solid goaltending. Not much to pick between the two but I’m ranking the Bruins first on the basis of superior defense, team toughness and coaching with the Penguins a very close second.
The next pack of four teams should all be locks for the playoffs but each has a nagging question or two. The Capitals have the most dominant player in hockey in Ovechkin and his hunger alone should carry the team to third place. The questions here for me are team depth and unproven goaltending where Varlamov only had six NHL games under his belt before his playoff run. The Flyers could challenge for the top spot in the east with Pronger solidifying the defense and a solid top two lines lead by Richards and Carter. This team will be as tough as any to play, but the gamble as always with the Flyers is in goal. Emery is their wildcard and the reason I am picking the team to finish fourth.
Carolina and Jersey had a great playoff series this past spring and will battle all year in the standings. I’m giving the edge to the Hurricanes for fifth with the Devils in sixth. There isn’t much to pick between these two team first clubs, but I see the Devils on a bit of a slide despite Lemaire coming back to coach. The Hurricanes came on strong with the switch to Maurice behind the bench and I see their energy and no name approach being enough to hold off the Devils.
The battle for the last two playoff spots is between five teams and may well go down to the last week of the season. The Sabres are my surprise pick for seventh on the strength of Ryan Miller and a team that is improving from within. The Sabres made the least number of changes and would have been a playoff team last year without Miller’s injury. A homer call here maybe, but I’m calling the Leafs for eighth. They now have the deepest top four defense in the conference and will rely on that strength to improve the league worst goals against average. To make the playoffs, Toskala must rebound and Gustavsson may have to be ready to assume more of the workload as the season moves on. Another advantage often overlooked is Wilson being a superior coach to those teams that I’m calling to miss the playoffs.
The next two are a toss up, but I see the Senators squeezing into ninth with the Canadiens for tenth. The additions of Michalek, Kovalev and Cheechoo will outweigh the loss of Heatley. The weakness of the team is defense and Murray did nothing to address that need while focusing on the Heatley mess. That should keep the Sens out of the playoffs, but if Leclaire is healthy he should be the long awaited answer in goal. The Canadiens have a new coach and gutted the nucleus of their team. There are just too many changes and questions on this team to call them for a playoff spot. Neither Gomez nor Gionta have previously shown that they can lead a team and Price has to show that he has regained his confidence. The Rangers are in the group that can challenge for a playoff spot but I’m calling them for eleventh. Yes they have Lundqvist in net, but they also have Avery as the number one left winger on the depth chart and Graborik has missed big parts of the last two seasons with injuries. I’m calling for them to tumble out of the playoffs.
The Panthers are a nice team with improving youth that could challenge if all breaks their way, but I look for the loss of Bouwmeester to push them back to twelfth. The team’s future is also a distraction as they go without a permanent GM. The Lighting are improving but have a long way to go, so a solid thirteenth is their likely spot. Stamkos will continue to improve and should benefit from Tanguay on his wing. The addition of Ohlund will be great for Hedman and look for this team to make strides next year if they are financially stable.
Kovalchuk has not signed for next year, Lehtonen is coming off back surgery and Antropov was signed to a 4 year $4 million contract. Things do not look good for the Thrashers who should finish second last in the conference and may have to entertain trade offers for Kovalchuk if it becomes clear that they will not be able to resign him. Too many questions for the Islanders to be anything but the pick for last. Tavares will be asked to carry much of the weight on his shoulders and the expectations of him being the next one might be way too high.
The next pack of four teams should all be locks for the playoffs but each has a nagging question or two. The Capitals have the most dominant player in hockey in Ovechkin and his hunger alone should carry the team to third place. The questions here for me are team depth and unproven goaltending where Varlamov only had six NHL games under his belt before his playoff run. The Flyers could challenge for the top spot in the east with Pronger solidifying the defense and a solid top two lines lead by Richards and Carter. This team will be as tough as any to play, but the gamble as always with the Flyers is in goal. Emery is their wildcard and the reason I am picking the team to finish fourth.
Carolina and Jersey had a great playoff series this past spring and will battle all year in the standings. I’m giving the edge to the Hurricanes for fifth with the Devils in sixth. There isn’t much to pick between these two team first clubs, but I see the Devils on a bit of a slide despite Lemaire coming back to coach. The Hurricanes came on strong with the switch to Maurice behind the bench and I see their energy and no name approach being enough to hold off the Devils.
The battle for the last two playoff spots is between five teams and may well go down to the last week of the season. The Sabres are my surprise pick for seventh on the strength of Ryan Miller and a team that is improving from within. The Sabres made the least number of changes and would have been a playoff team last year without Miller’s injury. A homer call here maybe, but I’m calling the Leafs for eighth. They now have the deepest top four defense in the conference and will rely on that strength to improve the league worst goals against average. To make the playoffs, Toskala must rebound and Gustavsson may have to be ready to assume more of the workload as the season moves on. Another advantage often overlooked is Wilson being a superior coach to those teams that I’m calling to miss the playoffs.
The next two are a toss up, but I see the Senators squeezing into ninth with the Canadiens for tenth. The additions of Michalek, Kovalev and Cheechoo will outweigh the loss of Heatley. The weakness of the team is defense and Murray did nothing to address that need while focusing on the Heatley mess. That should keep the Sens out of the playoffs, but if Leclaire is healthy he should be the long awaited answer in goal. The Canadiens have a new coach and gutted the nucleus of their team. There are just too many changes and questions on this team to call them for a playoff spot. Neither Gomez nor Gionta have previously shown that they can lead a team and Price has to show that he has regained his confidence. The Rangers are in the group that can challenge for a playoff spot but I’m calling them for eleventh. Yes they have Lundqvist in net, but they also have Avery as the number one left winger on the depth chart and Graborik has missed big parts of the last two seasons with injuries. I’m calling for them to tumble out of the playoffs.
The Panthers are a nice team with improving youth that could challenge if all breaks their way, but I look for the loss of Bouwmeester to push them back to twelfth. The team’s future is also a distraction as they go without a permanent GM. The Lighting are improving but have a long way to go, so a solid thirteenth is their likely spot. Stamkos will continue to improve and should benefit from Tanguay on his wing. The addition of Ohlund will be great for Hedman and look for this team to make strides next year if they are financially stable.
Kovalchuk has not signed for next year, Lehtonen is coming off back surgery and Antropov was signed to a 4 year $4 million contract. Things do not look good for the Thrashers who should finish second last in the conference and may have to entertain trade offers for Kovalchuk if it becomes clear that they will not be able to resign him. Too many questions for the Islanders to be anything but the pick for last. Tavares will be asked to carry much of the weight on his shoulders and the expectations of him being the next one might be way too high.
Thursday, September 24, 2009
Early Leaf Decisions
The most positive development from this pre-season has been seeing the young players that are ready for a spot on the Leaf roster. Coach Wilson put it very well when he said that many of these players have earned a job on the Leafs with their play during camp, but they had not stolen a job. This leaves Burke with some work to do this season to see if he can obtain value for some of the veterans that will be pushed aside by next season. This task is made more difficult during a season where the Leafs goal is to battle for a playoff position. Finishing lower in the standings will be especially difficult to stomach for Burke since he traded away next year’s number one pick in the draft for Kessel.
The excess on defense is the easiest piece of the puzzle. The top two pairings are a lock for the next two years so a proven top four defender like Van Ryn is a luxury they do not need. Van Ryn is in the final year of his contract and will not be on the Leafs next season. If he can show that he is healthy, he will be a commodity that is attractive to a western conference playoff contender that suffers an injury. White can also help a playoff contender needing offense from the back end. With the emergence of Gunnarsson, White will likely not be retained when he becomes an RFA at the end of the season. If Burke can move these two, the third pairing and back up will be handled by Finger, Exelby, Frogen and Gunnarsson. The salary anchor there is Finger earning $3.5 million for three more years and that is a salary that Burke would love to dump.
Up front you have the three college kids and Rosehill ready for Leaf jobs now, with Kadri a year away. The difficulty here is determining who on the current roster will be a part of a winning team going forward.
The right side may be easiest to project with Kessel, Hanson and Orr being three of the four long term. Hanson could play on the second or third line depending on whether the Leafs keep Hagman as a solid third line player, or if Kulemin shows that he can be a skilled number two winger. Stempniak does not fit long term but the only choice may be to let him play out the final year of his contract. Even without Hanson a log jam occurs when Kessel is ready that could force a trade or send Kulemin to the Marlies.
Stajan and Ponikarovsky look to be entering Antropov type years. Both are useful, but neither are top six forwards for a contending team. If the Leafs were not shooting for the playoffs both would likely be moved at the trade deadline for second round picks since they will be UFA’s next year. One or both could still be moved if Bozak and Stalberg show they are ready within the first few months of the season. Though signed to a new contract, Grabovski is also not untouchable though a trade involving him may be a multi player deal for a top center on a non contending team.
Tlusty is at the crossroads this year. Are the Leafs ready to give up on the former number one pick who is still only 21? Does he deserve a spot on the Leafs ahead of Stalberg? There does not seem to be much to be gained by him spending another year with the Marlies so look for these questions to be answered fairly soon.
Primeau, Mayers and Wallin are useful in the bottom six. They are low maintenance players that can even sit in the press box and wait for spot duty. None may be on the team next year, but each is a reasonable piece at around $1 million.
Burke put himself into a tougher position when he traded his two number ones for Kessel. Trades now are not only for long term growth, but must also not detract from the goal of the playoffs this season.
The excess on defense is the easiest piece of the puzzle. The top two pairings are a lock for the next two years so a proven top four defender like Van Ryn is a luxury they do not need. Van Ryn is in the final year of his contract and will not be on the Leafs next season. If he can show that he is healthy, he will be a commodity that is attractive to a western conference playoff contender that suffers an injury. White can also help a playoff contender needing offense from the back end. With the emergence of Gunnarsson, White will likely not be retained when he becomes an RFA at the end of the season. If Burke can move these two, the third pairing and back up will be handled by Finger, Exelby, Frogen and Gunnarsson. The salary anchor there is Finger earning $3.5 million for three more years and that is a salary that Burke would love to dump.
Up front you have the three college kids and Rosehill ready for Leaf jobs now, with Kadri a year away. The difficulty here is determining who on the current roster will be a part of a winning team going forward.
The right side may be easiest to project with Kessel, Hanson and Orr being three of the four long term. Hanson could play on the second or third line depending on whether the Leafs keep Hagman as a solid third line player, or if Kulemin shows that he can be a skilled number two winger. Stempniak does not fit long term but the only choice may be to let him play out the final year of his contract. Even without Hanson a log jam occurs when Kessel is ready that could force a trade or send Kulemin to the Marlies.
Stajan and Ponikarovsky look to be entering Antropov type years. Both are useful, but neither are top six forwards for a contending team. If the Leafs were not shooting for the playoffs both would likely be moved at the trade deadline for second round picks since they will be UFA’s next year. One or both could still be moved if Bozak and Stalberg show they are ready within the first few months of the season. Though signed to a new contract, Grabovski is also not untouchable though a trade involving him may be a multi player deal for a top center on a non contending team.
Tlusty is at the crossroads this year. Are the Leafs ready to give up on the former number one pick who is still only 21? Does he deserve a spot on the Leafs ahead of Stalberg? There does not seem to be much to be gained by him spending another year with the Marlies so look for these questions to be answered fairly soon.
Primeau, Mayers and Wallin are useful in the bottom six. They are low maintenance players that can even sit in the press box and wait for spot duty. None may be on the team next year, but each is a reasonable piece at around $1 million.
Burke put himself into a tougher position when he traded his two number ones for Kessel. Trades now are not only for long term growth, but must also not detract from the goal of the playoffs this season.
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
Kadri Quandary
The play of Nazem Kadri has the Leaf fans excited with hopes that he may be the missing number one center for Phil Kessel. Expectations increased last night when he roofed the tying goal with the Leafs net empty and then scored a beautiful shootout goal which proved to be the game winner. He shows great composure, can skate, handle the puck, make the imaginative pass and has the shot of a goal scorer.
What Kadri reminds me of right now is that great new bike that you were waiting for and finally received on Christmas morning. The bike is shiny and new and it is what you’ve been waiting for. You picture yourself riding the bike all summer. You are tempted to take the bike out right away and take it for a spin even though there is snow on the ground. Your parents may let you sit on it in the rec room right away, but they are not going to let you take it outside and risk damaging the gift before the summer has even begun.
That is what it is like with Nazem Kadri. So far he has showed that he may be exactly what the team needs. But for now, the best place for him to show that promise is training camp and the exhibition season. Kadri will be a Leaf for years to come and he may well one day be the center for Kessel. The reality however is that he is still 18 years old and is less than 180 pounds. There is no reason to risk his long term development by exposing him to the rigors of regular season NHL play where he will be a target and be playing against men weighing 30 pounds more.
The reality also is that right now he is not a better hockey player then Grabovski, Stajan or Mitchell. He also is not as far advanced as Tyler Bozak at this point in his career. Kadri will likely be a center for the top two lines, but right now he is at best fourth on the list of candidates for that role with the Leafs. To showcase his skills he needs to play with skilled players. It would be a waste of his skill and development to find minutes for him on the fourth line.
Despite the temptation to see how he would do in the NHL, the best thing for Kadri is to have a great year in junior hockey where he is the star of a franchise. That will give him a confidence and winning attitude that he will be able to bring to the Leafs in a year or two. He should also have the chance to play a significant role with Canada’s team at the world juniors and work on building his strength. These experiences build character and are invaluable to a true blue chip prospect. They greatly outweigh the benefit of playing a third or fourth line role against NHL grinders on a team scraping to make the playoffs.
The other complication for Toronto is that they have a depth of NHL players up front that are on guaranteed contracts. Many of them are on the final year of their contracts and will not be part of the team next year, but you can’t just make them disappear. Instead, as injuries occur and as Burke finds an opportunity to trade some for futures their positions will be filled by Bozak, Stalberg, Hanson, Rosehill and eventually Kadri.
Maybe a spot will be found for Bozak or Stalberg at the start of the season, but it is more likely that their opportunities will occur during the year. The first 15 games of the season will let Burke evaluate his team and other managers to do the same. At that point Kessel will be ready for action and that might be a time for Burke to make some moves to open a few additional spots.
So far Kadri looks like a great number seven pick and shows nothing but promise. I don’t see Burke taking the gamble and rushing him ahead of schedule.
What Kadri reminds me of right now is that great new bike that you were waiting for and finally received on Christmas morning. The bike is shiny and new and it is what you’ve been waiting for. You picture yourself riding the bike all summer. You are tempted to take the bike out right away and take it for a spin even though there is snow on the ground. Your parents may let you sit on it in the rec room right away, but they are not going to let you take it outside and risk damaging the gift before the summer has even begun.
That is what it is like with Nazem Kadri. So far he has showed that he may be exactly what the team needs. But for now, the best place for him to show that promise is training camp and the exhibition season. Kadri will be a Leaf for years to come and he may well one day be the center for Kessel. The reality however is that he is still 18 years old and is less than 180 pounds. There is no reason to risk his long term development by exposing him to the rigors of regular season NHL play where he will be a target and be playing against men weighing 30 pounds more.
The reality also is that right now he is not a better hockey player then Grabovski, Stajan or Mitchell. He also is not as far advanced as Tyler Bozak at this point in his career. Kadri will likely be a center for the top two lines, but right now he is at best fourth on the list of candidates for that role with the Leafs. To showcase his skills he needs to play with skilled players. It would be a waste of his skill and development to find minutes for him on the fourth line.
Despite the temptation to see how he would do in the NHL, the best thing for Kadri is to have a great year in junior hockey where he is the star of a franchise. That will give him a confidence and winning attitude that he will be able to bring to the Leafs in a year or two. He should also have the chance to play a significant role with Canada’s team at the world juniors and work on building his strength. These experiences build character and are invaluable to a true blue chip prospect. They greatly outweigh the benefit of playing a third or fourth line role against NHL grinders on a team scraping to make the playoffs.
The other complication for Toronto is that they have a depth of NHL players up front that are on guaranteed contracts. Many of them are on the final year of their contracts and will not be part of the team next year, but you can’t just make them disappear. Instead, as injuries occur and as Burke finds an opportunity to trade some for futures their positions will be filled by Bozak, Stalberg, Hanson, Rosehill and eventually Kadri.
Maybe a spot will be found for Bozak or Stalberg at the start of the season, but it is more likely that their opportunities will occur during the year. The first 15 games of the season will let Burke evaluate his team and other managers to do the same. At that point Kessel will be ready for action and that might be a time for Burke to make some moves to open a few additional spots.
So far Kadri looks like a great number seven pick and shows nothing but promise. I don’t see Burke taking the gamble and rushing him ahead of schedule.
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
NFL Top 10 and Top 3 Picks for Week 3
1 - NY Giants 2-0 (Last week 3)
A solid win on the road spoiling Jerry Jones big unveiling was fun to see. The defense did a great job keeping Romo to 127 yards passing. Defense should be stronger as they get health.
2 - NY Jets 2-0 (Last week 6)
This may be temporary, but two very strong wins in a row for the Jets to start the season. Sanchez has played solid as a rookie and the Ryan defense is everything you hoped that it would be.
3 - Minnesota 2-0 (Last week 8)
Another slow start for the Vikings but Favre continues to play a control game. The defense was strong again though they only had to contain the Lions.
4 - Pittsburgh 1-1 (Last week 2)
The Steelers were unable to get a running game going allowing the Bears to focus on Roethlisberger. A late loss on the road doesn’t drop them down too much.
5 - New Orleans 2-0 (Last week unranked)
Saints offence and Drew Brees carry the day with 48 points on the road against the Eagles defense. The concern is that they gave up 391 yards to Kolb filling in for McNabb.
6 - Baltimore 2 - 0 (Last week unranked)
A good win on the road in San Diego was saved by a last minute defensive play by Ray Lewis. Maybe they should be ranked higher and look for them to continue winning as they travel to Cleveland next week.
7 - Indianapolis 2-0 (Last week 9)
Hard to win usually when you only have the ball for a quarter of the game, but a win on the road is always a good thing. Vintage Peyton Manning.
8 - New England 1-1 (Last week 1)
Two lack luster performances in a row. Has Brady lost his magic? Is Belichik finally running out of horses? A test next week when the host the rising Falcons.
9 - Chicago 1-1 (Last week unranked)
Yes they beat Pittsburgh and yes I’m ranking them lower then the Steelers. The lack of a running game worries me and it took a fourth quarter rally to get this win.
10 - San Francisco 2-0 (Last week unranked)
Two strong wins to start the season and a second week of dominating defense. Their first real test of the season is next week when they travel to Minnesota in a battle of unbeaten teams.
Top 3 Picks for Week 3 (Last week 2-1, Season 4-2)
Jets minus 2 ½ at home against Tennessee. Maybe I’m buying into the Jets too early, but with only 16 points against in two games I’ll put my money on their defense at home.
Green Bay minus 6 ½ at St. Louis. Green Bay has yet to roll, but this should be the week when they travel to play a very weak Rams team.
Pittsburgh minus 4 at Cincinnati. The Steelers are already one game behind the Ravens so look at them to make a statement with a division game against the Bengals.
A solid win on the road spoiling Jerry Jones big unveiling was fun to see. The defense did a great job keeping Romo to 127 yards passing. Defense should be stronger as they get health.
2 - NY Jets 2-0 (Last week 6)
This may be temporary, but two very strong wins in a row for the Jets to start the season. Sanchez has played solid as a rookie and the Ryan defense is everything you hoped that it would be.
3 - Minnesota 2-0 (Last week 8)
Another slow start for the Vikings but Favre continues to play a control game. The defense was strong again though they only had to contain the Lions.
4 - Pittsburgh 1-1 (Last week 2)
The Steelers were unable to get a running game going allowing the Bears to focus on Roethlisberger. A late loss on the road doesn’t drop them down too much.
5 - New Orleans 2-0 (Last week unranked)
Saints offence and Drew Brees carry the day with 48 points on the road against the Eagles defense. The concern is that they gave up 391 yards to Kolb filling in for McNabb.
6 - Baltimore 2 - 0 (Last week unranked)
A good win on the road in San Diego was saved by a last minute defensive play by Ray Lewis. Maybe they should be ranked higher and look for them to continue winning as they travel to Cleveland next week.
7 - Indianapolis 2-0 (Last week 9)
Hard to win usually when you only have the ball for a quarter of the game, but a win on the road is always a good thing. Vintage Peyton Manning.
8 - New England 1-1 (Last week 1)
Two lack luster performances in a row. Has Brady lost his magic? Is Belichik finally running out of horses? A test next week when the host the rising Falcons.
9 - Chicago 1-1 (Last week unranked)
Yes they beat Pittsburgh and yes I’m ranking them lower then the Steelers. The lack of a running game worries me and it took a fourth quarter rally to get this win.
10 - San Francisco 2-0 (Last week unranked)
Two strong wins to start the season and a second week of dominating defense. Their first real test of the season is next week when they travel to Minnesota in a battle of unbeaten teams.
Top 3 Picks for Week 3 (Last week 2-1, Season 4-2)
Jets minus 2 ½ at home against Tennessee. Maybe I’m buying into the Jets too early, but with only 16 points against in two games I’ll put my money on their defense at home.
Green Bay minus 6 ½ at St. Louis. Green Bay has yet to roll, but this should be the week when they travel to play a very weak Rams team.
Pittsburgh minus 4 at Cincinnati. The Steelers are already one game behind the Ravens so look at them to make a statement with a division game against the Bengals.
Monday, September 21, 2009
Looking In the Leafs Cupboard
With the Kessel trade done, some of the Leaf knockers can’t resist chanting that this is the same old Leaf organization. Trading away picks for a short term fix thus mortgaging the future is the same old refrain. So, let’s have a look and see how the team projects over the next few seasons at each position.
Right wing seems to be set for years to come with an internal succession plan in place. Kessel and Kulemin are two skill players who will be 22 and 23 at the end of the season and likely mainstays on the top two lines. Colton Orr is set on the fourth line as the main enforcer and can take regular shifts without hurting you. Stempniak’s $2.5 million cap hit expires at the end of this year and Christian Hanson is ready to step in for him on either the second or third line. Further out is Mikhail Stefanovich who had 49 goals in 56 games last year in the QMJHL and is still only 18.
On the left side Blake likely has three more years with the team due to his contract. While the $4 million cap hit hurts, he still has speed and can score giving him some value if the Leafs are a playoff team. Ponikarovsky is in the last year of his contract and will likely be replaced by the cheaper, younger and faster Stalberg on one of the top two lines by the start of next season. Hagman can step into a top two line role when needed, but he is more likely a fixture on a solid third line. Rosehill could crack the team on the fourth line this year with his solid camp, but will most likely claim that spot next year. Robert Slaney is a year or two away, but projects to be a solid second or third line player. For this year Wallin, Primeau and Tlusty all can see time on the left. They are all on the last year of their contracts and Tlusty may have some trade value if the Leafs decide his future is elsewhere.
Center is a concern with the biggest whole for this year being the lack of a true top line center to play with Kessel. Grabovski will fill the top line role by default and will likely be followed by Stajan and Mitchell on the second and third lines. The immediate wild card here is Bozak who could start the season with the big club but will more likely get a couple of months seasoning with the Marlies. The fourth line will be centered by Wallin or Primeau. Botha are competent and Primeau will bolster the PK. Kadri looks to have the talent to be a top line center, but is one or two years away from earning that spot. This could be the spot for a free agent or trade by Burke, though Bozak, Kadri and Mitchell look like a very solid group of young centers two years out. Grabovski and Stajan could be assets the Leafs are willing to move here.
On defense the top two pairings are set with Beauchemin, Schenn, Kaberle and Komisarek. The strength of these pairings will likely leave only twelve minutes of ice time for the third pair. The excess depth is there for this year with Gunnarsson already ready to assume one of the spots when needed. At 18 Jesse Blacker will play another year with Windsor and be ready for the team in two years. Burke has an excess of defenders that he will try and move to restock some draft choices and possibly use in a package deal with Stajan and or Tlusty. If the Kaberle / Komisarek pairing jells look for Burke’s focus to turn to signing Kaberle to an extension instead of trading him. Kaberle and Beauchemin already appear to be solid as the top point pairing on the power play with Beauchemin taking over McCabe’s role in that spot.
Goaltending is an unknown long term until we see Gustavsson play. Ideally he becomes the number one goalie next year and Toskala’s expiring $4 million cap number can be used towards a proven top center. Reimer may be a nice surprise for the future with a full season in the minors and the chance to work with Allaire. If Gustavsson becomes the number one goalie, then I would like to see the Leafs go with an experienced backup like MacDonald for a couple of years
To me, the future looks pretty bright for the Leafs and the cupboard is anything but bare.
Right wing seems to be set for years to come with an internal succession plan in place. Kessel and Kulemin are two skill players who will be 22 and 23 at the end of the season and likely mainstays on the top two lines. Colton Orr is set on the fourth line as the main enforcer and can take regular shifts without hurting you. Stempniak’s $2.5 million cap hit expires at the end of this year and Christian Hanson is ready to step in for him on either the second or third line. Further out is Mikhail Stefanovich who had 49 goals in 56 games last year in the QMJHL and is still only 18.
On the left side Blake likely has three more years with the team due to his contract. While the $4 million cap hit hurts, he still has speed and can score giving him some value if the Leafs are a playoff team. Ponikarovsky is in the last year of his contract and will likely be replaced by the cheaper, younger and faster Stalberg on one of the top two lines by the start of next season. Hagman can step into a top two line role when needed, but he is more likely a fixture on a solid third line. Rosehill could crack the team on the fourth line this year with his solid camp, but will most likely claim that spot next year. Robert Slaney is a year or two away, but projects to be a solid second or third line player. For this year Wallin, Primeau and Tlusty all can see time on the left. They are all on the last year of their contracts and Tlusty may have some trade value if the Leafs decide his future is elsewhere.
Center is a concern with the biggest whole for this year being the lack of a true top line center to play with Kessel. Grabovski will fill the top line role by default and will likely be followed by Stajan and Mitchell on the second and third lines. The immediate wild card here is Bozak who could start the season with the big club but will more likely get a couple of months seasoning with the Marlies. The fourth line will be centered by Wallin or Primeau. Botha are competent and Primeau will bolster the PK. Kadri looks to have the talent to be a top line center, but is one or two years away from earning that spot. This could be the spot for a free agent or trade by Burke, though Bozak, Kadri and Mitchell look like a very solid group of young centers two years out. Grabovski and Stajan could be assets the Leafs are willing to move here.
On defense the top two pairings are set with Beauchemin, Schenn, Kaberle and Komisarek. The strength of these pairings will likely leave only twelve minutes of ice time for the third pair. The excess depth is there for this year with Gunnarsson already ready to assume one of the spots when needed. At 18 Jesse Blacker will play another year with Windsor and be ready for the team in two years. Burke has an excess of defenders that he will try and move to restock some draft choices and possibly use in a package deal with Stajan and or Tlusty. If the Kaberle / Komisarek pairing jells look for Burke’s focus to turn to signing Kaberle to an extension instead of trading him. Kaberle and Beauchemin already appear to be solid as the top point pairing on the power play with Beauchemin taking over McCabe’s role in that spot.
Goaltending is an unknown long term until we see Gustavsson play. Ideally he becomes the number one goalie next year and Toskala’s expiring $4 million cap number can be used towards a proven top center. Reimer may be a nice surprise for the future with a full season in the minors and the chance to work with Allaire. If Gustavsson becomes the number one goalie, then I would like to see the Leafs go with an experienced backup like MacDonald for a couple of years
To me, the future looks pretty bright for the Leafs and the cupboard is anything but bare.
Saturday, September 19, 2009
Two Too Much For Kessel?
As the Kessel pursuit wound on my position was that two first round picks was too much to give up for Kessel and I would not have pulled the trigger. Fortunately for Leaf fans Burke is running the team, not me.
Burke set his sights on Kessel back during the draft and yesterday he got his man. He played tough with Boston and paid a fair price, though slightly less than what the compensation would have been had he signed Kessel to a $5.4 million offer sheet. By letting Kessel go to RFA status the Bruins lost control of him, and where he would be traded. As an RFA Burke was allowed to talk to Kessel and to let him know what the Leafs would pay. The Bruins did not want to trade him within the division especially for only futures, but Kessel was not going to sign with any other team. The Bruins hands were tied and Burke got him for basic CBA mandated compensation without having to play the offer sheet card.
Are two first round picks too much for Kessel? As I look at it this morning I think not. Toronto should be a middle of the pack team the next two years and the drafts coming up are not projected to be deep. This year, Peter Holland and Nick Leddy were picked in the middle of the first round. I’d rather have Kessel as a 22 year old fixture on my top line then gamble on prospects like Holland and Leddy who are still years away from establishing what type of players they will turn out to be.
This move also sets the immediate direction of the team. Fans and players can eliminate the loser mentality of wondering if the team should tank the season for a better first round pick next year. Those days are gone. Burke is about winning and the players better get on board and realize that the culture of this team has changed. Burke will be bold and play hard to make his team better. That is the mentality that he wants to see on the ice and throughout the organization.
Kessel’s start with the Leafs may be slower then fans might hope. The team does not have a true number one center for him to play with. At the latest this will be addressed next summer when several Leaf contracts expire and they can go after a playmaking center. If things break right, this might not be necessary and the answer might come from within. I would not be surprised to see Bozak given a shot at that role as the season moves on. For the future a top line of Bozak, Kessel and Stalberg could be in the cards for 2010/11. By then, or the following year, Kadri should have filled out and be ready to step in as the skilled number two center.
In addition to having some excess defense to trade, this growth from within likely signals the end to Leafs like Stajan, Ponikarovsky and Stempniak. All three will move down to third line status for next year, and all three will be too expensive for those roles. The scenario with these players should play out like it did for Moore last year and Burke will look to convert some of these assets into draft picks.
Burke has given a clear signal as to the direction of this team. The time for excuses is over and the time to compete is now.
Burke set his sights on Kessel back during the draft and yesterday he got his man. He played tough with Boston and paid a fair price, though slightly less than what the compensation would have been had he signed Kessel to a $5.4 million offer sheet. By letting Kessel go to RFA status the Bruins lost control of him, and where he would be traded. As an RFA Burke was allowed to talk to Kessel and to let him know what the Leafs would pay. The Bruins did not want to trade him within the division especially for only futures, but Kessel was not going to sign with any other team. The Bruins hands were tied and Burke got him for basic CBA mandated compensation without having to play the offer sheet card.
Are two first round picks too much for Kessel? As I look at it this morning I think not. Toronto should be a middle of the pack team the next two years and the drafts coming up are not projected to be deep. This year, Peter Holland and Nick Leddy were picked in the middle of the first round. I’d rather have Kessel as a 22 year old fixture on my top line then gamble on prospects like Holland and Leddy who are still years away from establishing what type of players they will turn out to be.
This move also sets the immediate direction of the team. Fans and players can eliminate the loser mentality of wondering if the team should tank the season for a better first round pick next year. Those days are gone. Burke is about winning and the players better get on board and realize that the culture of this team has changed. Burke will be bold and play hard to make his team better. That is the mentality that he wants to see on the ice and throughout the organization.
Kessel’s start with the Leafs may be slower then fans might hope. The team does not have a true number one center for him to play with. At the latest this will be addressed next summer when several Leaf contracts expire and they can go after a playmaking center. If things break right, this might not be necessary and the answer might come from within. I would not be surprised to see Bozak given a shot at that role as the season moves on. For the future a top line of Bozak, Kessel and Stalberg could be in the cards for 2010/11. By then, or the following year, Kadri should have filled out and be ready to step in as the skilled number two center.
In addition to having some excess defense to trade, this growth from within likely signals the end to Leafs like Stajan, Ponikarovsky and Stempniak. All three will move down to third line status for next year, and all three will be too expensive for those roles. The scenario with these players should play out like it did for Moore last year and Burke will look to convert some of these assets into draft picks.
Burke has given a clear signal as to the direction of this team. The time for excuses is over and the time to compete is now.
Thursday, September 17, 2009
Leaf Pre-Season Kicks Off
After following the Coyotes legal case all summer it was great to finally see some action on the ice last night. Sure it was only the first exhibition game, but there were some positive signs last night.
The two players that impressed me most were Stalberg and Bozak. Stalberg’s speed and size stood out throughout the game. He outplayed Tlusty at left wing but a part of that may have been that Stalberg benefited by playing with Bozak while Tlusty was stuck on a line with Allison. Stalberg makes Tlusty very expendable in a potential Kessel trade and would not look out of place on the Leafs this year. I do think that he will likely start the season with the Marlies, but become a fixture when the contracts of Ponikarovsky and Primeau expire and open up room on the depth chart.
Bozak’s game really impressed me and he does have the look of a top six forward of the future. He showed maturity, a very high skill level and surprising speed. The Leafs do have Grabovski, Stajan and Mitchell ahead of him on the depth chart, so he may also start the year with the Marlies since I don’t think they want to play him on the fourth line. Though a little behind those two, Hanson did not look out of place playing with them and I can see that being the top line on the Marlies as we start the year. The good news is that all three should be with the Leafs next year as the contracts of Stajan, Stempniak and Mayers also come off the books.
The Leafs took a cautious approach with Kadri and started him off with Orr and Primeau riding shotgun on his line. Kadri looked a bit out of place with that line but picked up his game when Kulemin and Tlusty joined him as wingers. Kadri seemed to relax at that point and showed the skill level that Leaf fans had hoped to see. He should see a few more exhibition games and will then return to London for his final year of junior hockey. Look for him to have a good junior world tournament this year, spend most of next year with the Marlies and then be ready to join the big team for the 2011/12 season.
On a lower expectation level I liked the controlled play of Colton Orr last night. He showed that he can play a solid game of hockey while providing the physical presence that you want on the fourth line. The Leafs were involved with five fights last night, but none involved Orr as he just focused on solid hockey and finishing his checks.
Jason Allison did nothing to show he deserved to be on the team. On a night where Bozak and Kadri impressed with speed and skill at center, Allison just reaffirmed his image as being too slow for today’s game. I think the Leafs want to treat him with respect but he will hopefully be out of camp after a couple more outings.
Beauchemin was solid on defense and it will be great to see him on the ice for 20 plus minutes a game once the season starts. It was disappointing not to see him play with Schenn last night, but hopefully we will see them together soon. Exelby came as advertised and provided grit when he was on the ice while Ian White seemed to fade into the background. I think White may well be on the outside, or on another team, when the season starts in two weeks.
To me it looks like Burke has the depth of youngsters to be able to start moving some of the incumbent forwards as trade opportunities arise. He has about five forwards that are penciled in as starters this year that will not be with the team next year. Burke will not want to see them leave for nothing, so look for trades even for draft picks as the year moves on.
Training camp will race by now with eight more exhibition games in the next twelve nights. Tonight its off to London to play the Flyers and we should see the debut of Komisarek, Kaberle, Schenn, Grabovski and Stajan along with juniors Slaney and Stefanovich.
The two players that impressed me most were Stalberg and Bozak. Stalberg’s speed and size stood out throughout the game. He outplayed Tlusty at left wing but a part of that may have been that Stalberg benefited by playing with Bozak while Tlusty was stuck on a line with Allison. Stalberg makes Tlusty very expendable in a potential Kessel trade and would not look out of place on the Leafs this year. I do think that he will likely start the season with the Marlies, but become a fixture when the contracts of Ponikarovsky and Primeau expire and open up room on the depth chart.
Bozak’s game really impressed me and he does have the look of a top six forward of the future. He showed maturity, a very high skill level and surprising speed. The Leafs do have Grabovski, Stajan and Mitchell ahead of him on the depth chart, so he may also start the year with the Marlies since I don’t think they want to play him on the fourth line. Though a little behind those two, Hanson did not look out of place playing with them and I can see that being the top line on the Marlies as we start the year. The good news is that all three should be with the Leafs next year as the contracts of Stajan, Stempniak and Mayers also come off the books.
The Leafs took a cautious approach with Kadri and started him off with Orr and Primeau riding shotgun on his line. Kadri looked a bit out of place with that line but picked up his game when Kulemin and Tlusty joined him as wingers. Kadri seemed to relax at that point and showed the skill level that Leaf fans had hoped to see. He should see a few more exhibition games and will then return to London for his final year of junior hockey. Look for him to have a good junior world tournament this year, spend most of next year with the Marlies and then be ready to join the big team for the 2011/12 season.
On a lower expectation level I liked the controlled play of Colton Orr last night. He showed that he can play a solid game of hockey while providing the physical presence that you want on the fourth line. The Leafs were involved with five fights last night, but none involved Orr as he just focused on solid hockey and finishing his checks.
Jason Allison did nothing to show he deserved to be on the team. On a night where Bozak and Kadri impressed with speed and skill at center, Allison just reaffirmed his image as being too slow for today’s game. I think the Leafs want to treat him with respect but he will hopefully be out of camp after a couple more outings.
Beauchemin was solid on defense and it will be great to see him on the ice for 20 plus minutes a game once the season starts. It was disappointing not to see him play with Schenn last night, but hopefully we will see them together soon. Exelby came as advertised and provided grit when he was on the ice while Ian White seemed to fade into the background. I think White may well be on the outside, or on another team, when the season starts in two weeks.
To me it looks like Burke has the depth of youngsters to be able to start moving some of the incumbent forwards as trade opportunities arise. He has about five forwards that are penciled in as starters this year that will not be with the team next year. Burke will not want to see them leave for nothing, so look for trades even for draft picks as the year moves on.
Training camp will race by now with eight more exhibition games in the next twelve nights. Tonight its off to London to play the Flyers and we should see the debut of Komisarek, Kaberle, Schenn, Grabovski and Stajan along with juniors Slaney and Stefanovich.
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
NFL Top 10 and Week 2 Picks
1 - Pittsburgh 1-0 (Last week 2)
The defense picked up right where it left off last year. A slow start on the offensive side of the ball but its hard to look impressive against Tennessee.
2 - New England 1-0 (Last week 1)
Painful to watch if you are a Bills fan but somehow you just knew that the Patriots would find a way to win. Two very impressive touchdowns by Brady in the last three minutes to steal this one.
3 - NY Giants 1-0 (Last week 3)
A workman like win against the Redskins to start the season. Nothing at all flashy here, but all of the top teams got off to slow starts.
4 - Philadelphia 1-0 (Last week 5)
Losing McNabb won’t help them next week, but an easy win over the self destructing Panthers in week 1 is a nice way to start the year.
5 - Green Bay 1- 0 (Last week 7)
They didn’t blow out the Bears, but the defense sure made Cutler look terrible. Still an important division win to start the season and they avoided the type of tight losses that hurt them last year. The season could not have started off worse for the Bears with a terrible game by Cutler and the loss of Urlacher out for the year.
6 - NY Jets 1-0 (Last week unranked)
Have to reward the Jets for the best first week performance. A very solid debut by Sanchez and they totally handled the Texans on the road.
7 - Dallas 1-0 (Last week 8)
A comfortable win against Tampa in the first week. Great performance by Romo with 353 yards and 3 touchdowns.
8 - Minnesota 1-0 (Last week 9)
They started off very slow against a very bad Cleveland team but took control in the second half. Farve played a backseat role in the offense with only 110 yards passing while Peterson broke some big runs on route to 180 yards and 3 touchdowns.
9 - Indianapolis 1-0 (Last week 6)
Another blank of a game but the Colts came away with the win over Jacksonville. The Colts need to find some balance in their attack with Addai being held to 42 yards on the ground.
10 - San Diego 1-0 (Last week 4)
We’ll keep the Chargers in the top 10 this week, but they have to do better then squeaking out a win over the Raiders even if it is on the road.
Top 3 Pics (Last week 2-1 against the spread)
Take Pittsburgh minus 2 ½ at Chicago. Chicago’s season started off as bad as it could against the Vikes so this games worries me a bit as a bounce back. The Steelers will miss Polamalu, but I’ll give the points and look for Pittsburgh to overpower the Bears without Urlacher.
Houston plus 7 at Tennessee. Houston had a terrible start against the Jets at home but they are better then that. I look for them to stay within a touchdown of Tennessee whose offense does not impress me.
New Orleans plus 2 at Philadelphia. I hate to bet against Philly’s defense at home, but without McNabb and Vick I see Gregg Williams defense shutting down the Eagles enough to allow Brees to lead his team to victory.
The defense picked up right where it left off last year. A slow start on the offensive side of the ball but its hard to look impressive against Tennessee.
2 - New England 1-0 (Last week 1)
Painful to watch if you are a Bills fan but somehow you just knew that the Patriots would find a way to win. Two very impressive touchdowns by Brady in the last three minutes to steal this one.
3 - NY Giants 1-0 (Last week 3)
A workman like win against the Redskins to start the season. Nothing at all flashy here, but all of the top teams got off to slow starts.
4 - Philadelphia 1-0 (Last week 5)
Losing McNabb won’t help them next week, but an easy win over the self destructing Panthers in week 1 is a nice way to start the year.
5 - Green Bay 1- 0 (Last week 7)
They didn’t blow out the Bears, but the defense sure made Cutler look terrible. Still an important division win to start the season and they avoided the type of tight losses that hurt them last year. The season could not have started off worse for the Bears with a terrible game by Cutler and the loss of Urlacher out for the year.
6 - NY Jets 1-0 (Last week unranked)
Have to reward the Jets for the best first week performance. A very solid debut by Sanchez and they totally handled the Texans on the road.
7 - Dallas 1-0 (Last week 8)
A comfortable win against Tampa in the first week. Great performance by Romo with 353 yards and 3 touchdowns.
8 - Minnesota 1-0 (Last week 9)
They started off very slow against a very bad Cleveland team but took control in the second half. Farve played a backseat role in the offense with only 110 yards passing while Peterson broke some big runs on route to 180 yards and 3 touchdowns.
9 - Indianapolis 1-0 (Last week 6)
Another blank of a game but the Colts came away with the win over Jacksonville. The Colts need to find some balance in their attack with Addai being held to 42 yards on the ground.
10 - San Diego 1-0 (Last week 4)
We’ll keep the Chargers in the top 10 this week, but they have to do better then squeaking out a win over the Raiders even if it is on the road.
Top 3 Pics (Last week 2-1 against the spread)
Take Pittsburgh minus 2 ½ at Chicago. Chicago’s season started off as bad as it could against the Vikes so this games worries me a bit as a bounce back. The Steelers will miss Polamalu, but I’ll give the points and look for Pittsburgh to overpower the Bears without Urlacher.
Houston plus 7 at Tennessee. Houston had a terrible start against the Jets at home but they are better then that. I look for them to stay within a touchdown of Tennessee whose offense does not impress me.
New Orleans plus 2 at Philadelphia. I hate to bet against Philly’s defense at home, but without McNabb and Vick I see Gregg Williams defense shutting down the Eagles enough to allow Brees to lead his team to victory.
Monday, September 14, 2009
Heatley Gets His Move
The Heatley trade saga came down to the last minute but Murray finally pulled the trigger on the first day of camp. The deal to San Jose actually looks great for both Heatley and the Senators.
The Senators had to move Heatley. Rumors were already spreading about the real reason that Heatley demanded the trade and the situation was just going to get worse if he was not moved. The net result for the Sens is that they lose Heatley, but pick up Cheechoo and Michalek to go with the free agent acquisition of Kovalev. Add this to Spezza and Alfredsson and you have a wealth of top six forwards.
Since their playoff run of a few years back, the Senators have been stagnant and in decline. While Spezza and Heatley were a great combination, the team was relying on them too much. Though Heatley is the best player in the deal, you could argue that this trade even makes sense from a hockey perspective.
Michalek could be the biggest piece of the puzzle. At 24 years of age is he is already a proven 25 goal scorer and could easily be a 30 goal a year man on the top line. He also has size, speed and is responsible at the defensive side of the game as well. He should fit in well with Spezza on the top line and contribute to the first power play unit. With Alfredsson or Kovalev on the other wing I don’t expect the team to lose much production from their first line.
Cheechoo is a bit of a wild card and fans may be expecting a bit too much. He did win the Rocket Richard award in 2005/06 when he had 56 goals, but its been downhill since then. He was never fast, but after his sports hernia surgery he lost some of the jump he once had. Don’t look for Cheechoo to be a top scorer with the Sens and he may well be slotted in to a third line role. The net result however is a deeper team with more of the scoring spread out amongst the top three lines.
For Heatley, the move to San Jose is perfect. The team is a perennial winner, but being in California he will not be exposed to daily media glare. For a goal scorer you can not ask for more then to be paired up with Joe Thornton so he can expect another 50 goal season. Heatley should also be very motivated to confirm his standing as a top player so I see him coming out of the gate fast and earning a spot on the Olympic team.
From San Jose’s perspective, their GM promised to remake the team after another disappointing playoff performance and this trade qualifies as a bold move. Heatley adds flash and will add goals, but I really don’t see this as a move that makes them a stronger playoff team. Look for San Jose to have another good regular season but I don’t see them making it past the second round of the playoffs.
Conventional hockey wisdom states that the team that gets the best player in a trade wins the deal. While Heatley is the best player, I’m going to give this trade to Ottawa. They eliminated a distraction, shook up a team on a downward slide, and netted Kovalev, Michalek and Cheechoo to replace Heatley. A good move up front, though I would have liked to see them strengthen their blue line.
The Senators had to move Heatley. Rumors were already spreading about the real reason that Heatley demanded the trade and the situation was just going to get worse if he was not moved. The net result for the Sens is that they lose Heatley, but pick up Cheechoo and Michalek to go with the free agent acquisition of Kovalev. Add this to Spezza and Alfredsson and you have a wealth of top six forwards.
Since their playoff run of a few years back, the Senators have been stagnant and in decline. While Spezza and Heatley were a great combination, the team was relying on them too much. Though Heatley is the best player in the deal, you could argue that this trade even makes sense from a hockey perspective.
Michalek could be the biggest piece of the puzzle. At 24 years of age is he is already a proven 25 goal scorer and could easily be a 30 goal a year man on the top line. He also has size, speed and is responsible at the defensive side of the game as well. He should fit in well with Spezza on the top line and contribute to the first power play unit. With Alfredsson or Kovalev on the other wing I don’t expect the team to lose much production from their first line.
Cheechoo is a bit of a wild card and fans may be expecting a bit too much. He did win the Rocket Richard award in 2005/06 when he had 56 goals, but its been downhill since then. He was never fast, but after his sports hernia surgery he lost some of the jump he once had. Don’t look for Cheechoo to be a top scorer with the Sens and he may well be slotted in to a third line role. The net result however is a deeper team with more of the scoring spread out amongst the top three lines.
For Heatley, the move to San Jose is perfect. The team is a perennial winner, but being in California he will not be exposed to daily media glare. For a goal scorer you can not ask for more then to be paired up with Joe Thornton so he can expect another 50 goal season. Heatley should also be very motivated to confirm his standing as a top player so I see him coming out of the gate fast and earning a spot on the Olympic team.
From San Jose’s perspective, their GM promised to remake the team after another disappointing playoff performance and this trade qualifies as a bold move. Heatley adds flash and will add goals, but I really don’t see this as a move that makes them a stronger playoff team. Look for San Jose to have another good regular season but I don’t see them making it past the second round of the playoffs.
Conventional hockey wisdom states that the team that gets the best player in a trade wins the deal. While Heatley is the best player, I’m going to give this trade to Ottawa. They eliminated a distraction, shook up a team on a downward slide, and netted Kovalev, Michalek and Cheechoo to replace Heatley. A good move up front, though I would have liked to see them strengthen their blue line.
Thursday, September 10, 2009
Jays Adrift
Last night the Toronto Blue Jays hit a new attendance low for the Rogers Center. The announced attendance was 11,159 and that certainly looks small inside that stadium.
The sad part of this figure was that Halladay was pitching last night. During the Halladay trade talk so many fans said that if you trade the Doc I’ll never go to another Jays’ game. Well the Jays didn’t trade Halladay and still the fans do not show up.
Listening to the talk shows you hear so many people blame JP for the lack of interest. I am definitely not a JP booster, but that is just a cop out. If you are a baseball fan and you really care about the team keeping a pitcher like Halladay you have to go out and support the team, especially when he’s pitching. The only thing last nights game showed the owners was that the fans are not willing to support Halladay with their wallets.
At this point of the season I’m not laying the blame on JP for lack of attendance. The major fault now has to be laid at the feet of Rogers. JP has overstayed his welcome and the fan base in Toronto has tuned him out. Years of lies and arrogance has put JP in this position. Once the trade deadline expired and a Halladay deal could not be worked out Rogers should have fired JP right then. Granted it would not help the team for the balance of the season, but it would be tangible proof that the times are changing for the Jays. It would have been a bold statement, and a problem with the Jays is that they are anything but bold.
The fans have no idea what the future of the Jays is. Some information has been leaked that next year’s budget may jump up to $120 million, but there is not one shred of evidence that supports this. If there is any credence to that rumor I can not see any reason for Rogers not making that public. It would provide hope for the fans and give them some reason to believe. At present they are saying nothing and hiding behind the excuse that they are in the process of hiring a new president. Sorry that just doesn’t wash and the 11,159 fans in attendance last night bare that out.
The other bit of reality here is that Toronto is not a true baseball city. The stadium is in a perfectly accessible location and last night was a great night to see the game with fan favorite Halladay on the mound. The reality is that the fans are no longer paying attention to the Jays and there are very few true baseball fans in Toronto who even knew that Halladay was the scheduled pitcher. If they did know, not many showed up.
If disinterest is the major issue here, part of the blame must also fall on the manager. Cito is a player’s manager and his total focus is on the players on his team. He stands by them through thick and thin, but he does not appear to be an inspirational leader nor does he seem to think that getting the fans excited is his job. In Toronto we need that. We need someone running the team that inspires the fans and gives them a reason to believe. We are not Boston where baseball is so deep in our blood that we appreciate every nuance of the game. To attract crowds of 30,000 plus we need to be motivated and excited by the GM and manager of the team. That is especially the case when the team on the field is not producing results.
I really think that Rogers is perplexed by the attendance figures and is reevaluating their commitment to the team. I’m not saying the team will leave Toronto, but I would not be surprised to see it sold in the not too distant future.
The sad part of this figure was that Halladay was pitching last night. During the Halladay trade talk so many fans said that if you trade the Doc I’ll never go to another Jays’ game. Well the Jays didn’t trade Halladay and still the fans do not show up.
Listening to the talk shows you hear so many people blame JP for the lack of interest. I am definitely not a JP booster, but that is just a cop out. If you are a baseball fan and you really care about the team keeping a pitcher like Halladay you have to go out and support the team, especially when he’s pitching. The only thing last nights game showed the owners was that the fans are not willing to support Halladay with their wallets.
At this point of the season I’m not laying the blame on JP for lack of attendance. The major fault now has to be laid at the feet of Rogers. JP has overstayed his welcome and the fan base in Toronto has tuned him out. Years of lies and arrogance has put JP in this position. Once the trade deadline expired and a Halladay deal could not be worked out Rogers should have fired JP right then. Granted it would not help the team for the balance of the season, but it would be tangible proof that the times are changing for the Jays. It would have been a bold statement, and a problem with the Jays is that they are anything but bold.
The fans have no idea what the future of the Jays is. Some information has been leaked that next year’s budget may jump up to $120 million, but there is not one shred of evidence that supports this. If there is any credence to that rumor I can not see any reason for Rogers not making that public. It would provide hope for the fans and give them some reason to believe. At present they are saying nothing and hiding behind the excuse that they are in the process of hiring a new president. Sorry that just doesn’t wash and the 11,159 fans in attendance last night bare that out.
The other bit of reality here is that Toronto is not a true baseball city. The stadium is in a perfectly accessible location and last night was a great night to see the game with fan favorite Halladay on the mound. The reality is that the fans are no longer paying attention to the Jays and there are very few true baseball fans in Toronto who even knew that Halladay was the scheduled pitcher. If they did know, not many showed up.
If disinterest is the major issue here, part of the blame must also fall on the manager. Cito is a player’s manager and his total focus is on the players on his team. He stands by them through thick and thin, but he does not appear to be an inspirational leader nor does he seem to think that getting the fans excited is his job. In Toronto we need that. We need someone running the team that inspires the fans and gives them a reason to believe. We are not Boston where baseball is so deep in our blood that we appreciate every nuance of the game. To attract crowds of 30,000 plus we need to be motivated and excited by the GM and manager of the team. That is especially the case when the team on the field is not producing results.
I really think that Rogers is perplexed by the attendance figures and is reevaluating their commitment to the team. I’m not saying the team will leave Toronto, but I would not be surprised to see it sold in the not too distant future.
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
Argo Nots & Top 3 NFL Picks
Though I have yet to write about the Argos I am still a big fan of the team. Let me correct that, let’s say that I still want to be a big fan of the team. Yesterday’s Labour Day Classic performance by the Argos was simply ugly.
While Pinball likely saved the franchise with his personality and spirit, he started the slide by his push to sign Kerry Joseph a few years back. At the time the team was growing with a developing quarterback in Michael Bishop. Pinball pushed Rita to sign Joseph off his Grey Cup win with Saskatchewan. This created a division within the team and Joseph has never been the quarterback that Pinball envisioned. The signing created a buzz at the time, but CFL watchers could see disaster all over this move.
The coaching side has also been on downward spiral. Stubler was a great defensive coordinator for the team, but he was a bust when he was promoted to head coach after Pinball’s retirement. Maybe he would have grown in his new position, but the team panicked quickly last year and fired him after only 10 games. What to do next? Do you go with an old retread CFL coach, or do you try the “new” way and hire an NFL type that is new to the league since that worked for Montreal. Well for some reason the Argos did both.
First, they hired Dan Matthews who was one of the best CFL coaches ever, but had burned out a few years ago. He no longer had the drive and his record was 0-8 to finish the season. Then they hired Bart Andrus with no CFL experience and he has the team off to a 2-7 record this year.
While I like Andrus’ no nonsense approach, he does not understand the CFL and he did not hire assistants with CFL experience. The team’s game plan is based on perfect execution and that makes no sense with a rookie QB and inexperienced receivers. In the last two games Pickett has had a great completion percentage, but there is no attempt to stretch the field and defenses find it all too easy to disrupt any drive. Without the threat of going deep, defenses can stuff the run on first down and then focus on short passes on second down. Even if you complete 2 out of 3 passes, your drives die.
Another example of mismanagement is that for the last game the Argos wasted an import spot by having two import kickers on the roster. This is even more ridiculous when they had Prefontaine on their roster and he was more than capable at both punting and kicking before they let him go to Edmonton. The team is a pure mess and likely needs both a new GM and coach.
Top 3 NFL Picks
Take Philadelphia minus 1 ½ at Carolina. I think the Eagles may implode a little once Vick is activated, but I like them coming out of the gate fast and Carolina will not have a strong year.
Take Minnesota minus 3 ½ at Cleveland. I love the Browns, but this could be a very sad year for them. The Vikes have the defense and way too much offense for Cleveland. Look for a blowout.
Take Houston minus 4 ½ at home against the Jets. The Texans are on the way up while the Jets try to break in a rookie QB on the road.
While Pinball likely saved the franchise with his personality and spirit, he started the slide by his push to sign Kerry Joseph a few years back. At the time the team was growing with a developing quarterback in Michael Bishop. Pinball pushed Rita to sign Joseph off his Grey Cup win with Saskatchewan. This created a division within the team and Joseph has never been the quarterback that Pinball envisioned. The signing created a buzz at the time, but CFL watchers could see disaster all over this move.
The coaching side has also been on downward spiral. Stubler was a great defensive coordinator for the team, but he was a bust when he was promoted to head coach after Pinball’s retirement. Maybe he would have grown in his new position, but the team panicked quickly last year and fired him after only 10 games. What to do next? Do you go with an old retread CFL coach, or do you try the “new” way and hire an NFL type that is new to the league since that worked for Montreal. Well for some reason the Argos did both.
First, they hired Dan Matthews who was one of the best CFL coaches ever, but had burned out a few years ago. He no longer had the drive and his record was 0-8 to finish the season. Then they hired Bart Andrus with no CFL experience and he has the team off to a 2-7 record this year.
While I like Andrus’ no nonsense approach, he does not understand the CFL and he did not hire assistants with CFL experience. The team’s game plan is based on perfect execution and that makes no sense with a rookie QB and inexperienced receivers. In the last two games Pickett has had a great completion percentage, but there is no attempt to stretch the field and defenses find it all too easy to disrupt any drive. Without the threat of going deep, defenses can stuff the run on first down and then focus on short passes on second down. Even if you complete 2 out of 3 passes, your drives die.
Another example of mismanagement is that for the last game the Argos wasted an import spot by having two import kickers on the roster. This is even more ridiculous when they had Prefontaine on their roster and he was more than capable at both punting and kicking before they let him go to Edmonton. The team is a pure mess and likely needs both a new GM and coach.
Top 3 NFL Picks
Take Philadelphia minus 1 ½ at Carolina. I think the Eagles may implode a little once Vick is activated, but I like them coming out of the gate fast and Carolina will not have a strong year.
Take Minnesota minus 3 ½ at Cleveland. I love the Browns, but this could be a very sad year for them. The Vikes have the defense and way too much offense for Cleveland. Look for a blowout.
Take Houston minus 4 ½ at home against the Jets. The Texans are on the way up while the Jets try to break in a rookie QB on the road.
Friday, September 4, 2009
MLSE Territorial Veto
One of the biggest areas of confusion in the Coyotes case is the alleged MLSE veto over a second NHL franchise coming to Southern Ontario. This veto is seen as something MLSE will use out of fear of competition to protect their Toronto area monopoly at all costs. The possibility of MLSE suing the NHL to protect this veto power will likely be central to a Balsillie anti-trust action against the NHL if they purse that route.
The reality is that MLSE does not fear competition from a second NHL team in its area. The Leafs are the Leafs and their legion of fans has supported them when all rational people would have abandoned the team. A Hamilton Blackberry franchise would have little effect on Leaf fans and would not put a dent in MLSE revenue.
A larger fear for MLSE is what effect a second team would have on the Raptors, on arena bookings and on television rights. The Raptors could feel some effect in terms of fan support and corporate marketing dollars, but the basketball fan base is quite separate from hockey fans. Likewise marketing dollars exist for both in the region.
A bigger concern is the possibility of a second arena drawing concerts and events away from the Air Canada Center. To this end the Hamilton franchise would not be a bad thing for MLSE since the arena already exists and no new competition is added. The television pie is already split with numerous Canadian franchises and it is not likely that a new team would take away from the mystique of the Leafs. By and large the Toronto market will not be clamoring for more Hamilton hockey games. If a second NHL team in the area forces more Leaf games off network television, MLSE will be more than happy to accommodate those games on Leaf TV.
From all these perspectives a Hamilton franchise may well be the best possible scenario for a second NHL team from MLSE’s point of view. So, why are they threatening to play the veto card and why are they not in favor of the Hamilton franchise?
The reason is that MLSE is not a defensive organization, they are an offensive one. They view this alleged veto as an asset. They are not willing to give that asset away, nor are they willing to sell it for some $25 – 50 million in indemnification fees.
They realize that a second team will eventually come to the GTA and they realize that their veto is likely not enforceable in court. What they want to do is maximize this veto asset and they will only give it up for a lucrative business opportunity.
What they likely want to do is forge a business partnership with the second GTA team and leverage that into a massive development. They envision a second arena with a surrounding development of condos, restaurants, stores, etc. with the new hockey team being the core tenant in the arena that MLSE will own. That type of project will generate the type of revenue that they will demand for agreeing to a second GTA hockey team. At that point you will see them welcome a second team for Southern Ontario hockey fans and join that team in its submission to the NHL.
The only problem for MLSE with Balsillie or Hamilton is that it doesn’t satisfy the one question that we hear all too often today. “What’s in it for me?”
The reality is that MLSE does not fear competition from a second NHL team in its area. The Leafs are the Leafs and their legion of fans has supported them when all rational people would have abandoned the team. A Hamilton Blackberry franchise would have little effect on Leaf fans and would not put a dent in MLSE revenue.
A larger fear for MLSE is what effect a second team would have on the Raptors, on arena bookings and on television rights. The Raptors could feel some effect in terms of fan support and corporate marketing dollars, but the basketball fan base is quite separate from hockey fans. Likewise marketing dollars exist for both in the region.
A bigger concern is the possibility of a second arena drawing concerts and events away from the Air Canada Center. To this end the Hamilton franchise would not be a bad thing for MLSE since the arena already exists and no new competition is added. The television pie is already split with numerous Canadian franchises and it is not likely that a new team would take away from the mystique of the Leafs. By and large the Toronto market will not be clamoring for more Hamilton hockey games. If a second NHL team in the area forces more Leaf games off network television, MLSE will be more than happy to accommodate those games on Leaf TV.
From all these perspectives a Hamilton franchise may well be the best possible scenario for a second NHL team from MLSE’s point of view. So, why are they threatening to play the veto card and why are they not in favor of the Hamilton franchise?
The reason is that MLSE is not a defensive organization, they are an offensive one. They view this alleged veto as an asset. They are not willing to give that asset away, nor are they willing to sell it for some $25 – 50 million in indemnification fees.
They realize that a second team will eventually come to the GTA and they realize that their veto is likely not enforceable in court. What they want to do is maximize this veto asset and they will only give it up for a lucrative business opportunity.
What they likely want to do is forge a business partnership with the second GTA team and leverage that into a massive development. They envision a second arena with a surrounding development of condos, restaurants, stores, etc. with the new hockey team being the core tenant in the arena that MLSE will own. That type of project will generate the type of revenue that they will demand for agreeing to a second GTA hockey team. At that point you will see them welcome a second team for Southern Ontario hockey fans and join that team in its submission to the NHL.
The only problem for MLSE with Balsillie or Hamilton is that it doesn’t satisfy the one question that we hear all too often today. “What’s in it for me?”
Thursday, September 3, 2009
Komisarek Leafs Biggest Gamble
Most of Burke’s moves this off season have little risk. Gustavsson, Bozak and Hanson are all no risk, high upside signings. Colton Orr at a million a year is fine as a fourth line player and enforcer. Exelby, Wallin and Primeau all have only one year remaining on their contracts and as such have no ongoing liability if they prove that they are not part of the future. The Beauchemin signing involved more years, but he is in the prime of his career, recovered from his injury, and is a great addition for top four minutes on the blue line and a likely defense pairing with Luke Schenn.
The one big question is the signing of Mike Komisarek. At age 27, 6’4 and 240, he should be exactly the type of defenseman that you pair with a player like Tomas Kaberle. He is a punishing player with very good defensive skills that can keep the crease clean and provide confidence for those on the ice with him. At his age he should still be improving and should just be entering the prime of his career.
The question mark surrounding Komisarek is whether he will rebound to be the player that he was before his two fights with Milan Lucic last year. Komisarek took a battering in both those fights and also likely sustained lingering injuries. He never returned to the form he had and appeared to have lost his confidence and commanding presence on the ice for the rest of the season and playoffs.
He was definitely dumped on by some of the fans in Montreal and took the heat as part of the reason for the first round blowout by the Bruins. The Canadiens evaluated their situation after the season and did not really give up on him. Reports were that they offered him a $4 million contract to re-sign as a UFA but would not go higher. Burke jumped in and lured Komisarek to Toronto with a 5 year contract at $4.5 million per season.
The term of the contract is not a stretch for a 27 year old, but at $4.5 million a season Komisarek has to return to a dominant physical presence on the blue line to justify the dollars. The Leafs do not need him to be the policeman for the team, but with his limited ability to handle the puck his role is to intimidate the other team inside the Leafs blue line and he must be worthy of top pair minutes.
The one additional factor that makes you think the gamble is worth it is that Burke knows Komisarek from his involvement with the US hockey program. He should have the inside story and know whether last year’s decline was largely due to injury. Komisarek definitely has the character that Burke loves and the Leafs need. The fans just have to hope that the off season has allowed any physical and psychological scars to heal and that Komisarek will be back to his usual physical self. If he is, a partnership with Kaberle and his puck moving skills will be great for both players.
I think we have to trust Burke with this move, but at 5 years at $4.5 million a season it is the Leafs biggest gamble of the off season and one that could handcuff the team if it does not pan out.
The one big question is the signing of Mike Komisarek. At age 27, 6’4 and 240, he should be exactly the type of defenseman that you pair with a player like Tomas Kaberle. He is a punishing player with very good defensive skills that can keep the crease clean and provide confidence for those on the ice with him. At his age he should still be improving and should just be entering the prime of his career.
The question mark surrounding Komisarek is whether he will rebound to be the player that he was before his two fights with Milan Lucic last year. Komisarek took a battering in both those fights and also likely sustained lingering injuries. He never returned to the form he had and appeared to have lost his confidence and commanding presence on the ice for the rest of the season and playoffs.
He was definitely dumped on by some of the fans in Montreal and took the heat as part of the reason for the first round blowout by the Bruins. The Canadiens evaluated their situation after the season and did not really give up on him. Reports were that they offered him a $4 million contract to re-sign as a UFA but would not go higher. Burke jumped in and lured Komisarek to Toronto with a 5 year contract at $4.5 million per season.
The term of the contract is not a stretch for a 27 year old, but at $4.5 million a season Komisarek has to return to a dominant physical presence on the blue line to justify the dollars. The Leafs do not need him to be the policeman for the team, but with his limited ability to handle the puck his role is to intimidate the other team inside the Leafs blue line and he must be worthy of top pair minutes.
The one additional factor that makes you think the gamble is worth it is that Burke knows Komisarek from his involvement with the US hockey program. He should have the inside story and know whether last year’s decline was largely due to injury. Komisarek definitely has the character that Burke loves and the Leafs need. The fans just have to hope that the off season has allowed any physical and psychological scars to heal and that Komisarek will be back to his usual physical self. If he is, a partnership with Kaberle and his puck moving skills will be great for both players.
I think we have to trust Burke with this move, but at 5 years at $4.5 million a season it is the Leafs biggest gamble of the off season and one that could handcuff the team if it does not pan out.
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
NFL Pre-Season Top 10
My version of the NFL top 10 will be updated each week. Here’s how I see it heading into the season.
1 - New England
Brady’s back at the controls and that makes the Patriots just too hard to defend. Combine that with the brilliance of Belichik and the Patriots are the team to beat once again.
2 - Pittsburgh
The defending champions will remain hungry with Tomlin in charge. The defense is as tough as it gets and Roethlisberger will continue to play a more controlled game as the Steelers look to repeat.
3 - NY Giants
The NFC is still the poor cousin to the AFC, but the Giants combination of a pounding defense and pounding running game make them the most consistent team in the conference. Eli has grown up and knows how to manage an offense.
4 - San Diego
Playing in the easy AFC West almost gives them a bye to the playoffs. LT and a solid defense are the plusses, but can Norv Turner match the top coaches in the league?
5 - Philadelphia
On talent this team could be the class of the NFC, but the loss of Jim Johnson will be a big blow to the defense. Vick adds talent and a new look, but his playing gives McNabb another excuse for bad play.
6 - Indianapolis
I might be rating the Colts too high, but I have a lot of faith in Peyton’s will not to lose. The change from Dungy to Caldwell may actually give the Colts a wakeup call and eliminate some complacency that has been creeping in.
7 - Green Bay
This is my surprise team coming off a 6-10 season. Look for a breakout year for Aaron Rodgers and Packer pride beating the Vikings out for the division title. The new look defense will also help.
8 - Dallas
The Cowboys may be a top 5 team, but they play in the toughest conference. I look for the Giants and Eagles to beat the Cowboys down and Romo has not shown me that he can lead a team all the way.
9 - Minnesota
The favorite by most to win their conference, but I think the addition of Favre will be more of a negative as the season wears on and the body breaks down. Their defense and running game makes them tough to bet against however.
10 - Arizona
You have to show a bit of respect for a Super Bowl team so we’ll start them at the 10 spot. I’m not confident that their air attack and aggressive D can lead them back but they do have an easier conference to play in.
Others to watch: Chicago (addition of Jay Cutler finally gives them a starting QB), New Orleans (Gregg Williams magic can transform the D), Tennessee (loss of Haynesworth keeps them out of my top 10), Atlanta (solid team on the rise), Baltimore (I hate when teams lose a top defensive coordinator)
Super Bowl: New England beats the NY Giants to make up for the lost “perfect” season.
1 - New England
Brady’s back at the controls and that makes the Patriots just too hard to defend. Combine that with the brilliance of Belichik and the Patriots are the team to beat once again.
2 - Pittsburgh
The defending champions will remain hungry with Tomlin in charge. The defense is as tough as it gets and Roethlisberger will continue to play a more controlled game as the Steelers look to repeat.
3 - NY Giants
The NFC is still the poor cousin to the AFC, but the Giants combination of a pounding defense and pounding running game make them the most consistent team in the conference. Eli has grown up and knows how to manage an offense.
4 - San Diego
Playing in the easy AFC West almost gives them a bye to the playoffs. LT and a solid defense are the plusses, but can Norv Turner match the top coaches in the league?
5 - Philadelphia
On talent this team could be the class of the NFC, but the loss of Jim Johnson will be a big blow to the defense. Vick adds talent and a new look, but his playing gives McNabb another excuse for bad play.
6 - Indianapolis
I might be rating the Colts too high, but I have a lot of faith in Peyton’s will not to lose. The change from Dungy to Caldwell may actually give the Colts a wakeup call and eliminate some complacency that has been creeping in.
7 - Green Bay
This is my surprise team coming off a 6-10 season. Look for a breakout year for Aaron Rodgers and Packer pride beating the Vikings out for the division title. The new look defense will also help.
8 - Dallas
The Cowboys may be a top 5 team, but they play in the toughest conference. I look for the Giants and Eagles to beat the Cowboys down and Romo has not shown me that he can lead a team all the way.
9 - Minnesota
The favorite by most to win their conference, but I think the addition of Favre will be more of a negative as the season wears on and the body breaks down. Their defense and running game makes them tough to bet against however.
10 - Arizona
You have to show a bit of respect for a Super Bowl team so we’ll start them at the 10 spot. I’m not confident that their air attack and aggressive D can lead them back but they do have an easier conference to play in.
Others to watch: Chicago (addition of Jay Cutler finally gives them a starting QB), New Orleans (Gregg Williams magic can transform the D), Tennessee (loss of Haynesworth keeps them out of my top 10), Atlanta (solid team on the rise), Baltimore (I hate when teams lose a top defensive coordinator)
Super Bowl: New England beats the NY Giants to make up for the lost “perfect” season.
Tuesday, September 1, 2009
Leaf Camp Questions
What better way to spend the first morning of September then to look forward to the start of the NHL season. The players will soon be arriving at camp and the Leafs have many questions that need to be answered. Let’s have a look at some of the most pressing issues.
Who will be on the third defense pairing? Barring injury Kaberle, Komisarek, Beauchemin and Schenn have the top four defense spots locked up. That leaves the Leafs with five more NHL ready defensemen competing for the final pairing and the reserve spot. Frogren was a starter last year, but he will likely be on the outside looking in. Van Ryn should be on the final pairing and may also be trade bait for Burke. White’s flexibility should land him the spot as the seventh defenseman with his ability to quarterback the second power play unit and help up front if needed. That likely leaves the battle for the final spot between Finger and Exelby. The Leafs love Exelby’s grit, but it will be hard swallow Finger’s $3.5 million salary if he is sent down to the minors. I see Burke trying very hard to move either Van Ryn or Finger prior to the start of the season to ease the log jam, though that Finger contract may well be impossible to move.
Is Gustavsson ready for the NHL? Burke spent lots of time and effort to land Gustavsson this summer with the idea of him starting the season as Toskala’s backup and hopefully being the number one man next year. The exhibition season will show whether he is ready to step right into the NHL, or if some seasoning with the Marlies is necessary. The signing of Joey MacDonald gives the Leafs a proven backup should Gustavsson need a little more time, but my guess is that Gustavsson will start the year as the Leafs number two goalie.
Is Bozak ready? Hanson and Bozak were two big college signings the Leafs made at the end of last year. Hanson played a few games with the Leafs, but Bozak was kept out of action due to an injury. Bozak is likely the one with the biggest chance to jump right into the NHL and will be given a chance by the club to make the team out of camp. I’d rate his chances as high as 50/50, but seeing him crack the lineup would be great news for the future.
Can Tlusty finally claim a top six spot? While a top six spot on the Leafs isn’t exactly the pinnacle of hockey success, the hope is that Tlusty finally discovered something during his last stint with the Marlies. While it seems as if he’s been trying to crack the lineup for years, he is only 21. If he earn a full time spot on one of the top two lines that would be a big step for him and the team.
Will Kulemin build off his rookie year? Kulemin had a strong rookie campaign with 15 goals and will be given a shot to play right wing on the top line. He showed plenty of skill during his first year and a jump to 25 goals would not be out of reason. Can he and Grabovski find chemistry on the top line?
What will Primeau’s role be? Little was made of the pickup of Wayne Primeau, but I think he may have an important role to play for the team this year. He may well center the fourth line, but he may also see time on the top lines when some size is needed. He has a history of playing for Wilson so look for the team to make good use of his 6’4, 225 pound size if he manages to stay away from injuries.
How will the PK develop? Penalty killing was a major weakness of the team last year. With new size on defense the team should do a better job of clearing the front of the net which will help the goalies. Primeau will also help with his size and reach, but improvement here will be a major focus of camp.
Training camp is less then two weeks away and the season starts in just one month. These chilly mornings are helping us get into the mood.
Who will be on the third defense pairing? Barring injury Kaberle, Komisarek, Beauchemin and Schenn have the top four defense spots locked up. That leaves the Leafs with five more NHL ready defensemen competing for the final pairing and the reserve spot. Frogren was a starter last year, but he will likely be on the outside looking in. Van Ryn should be on the final pairing and may also be trade bait for Burke. White’s flexibility should land him the spot as the seventh defenseman with his ability to quarterback the second power play unit and help up front if needed. That likely leaves the battle for the final spot between Finger and Exelby. The Leafs love Exelby’s grit, but it will be hard swallow Finger’s $3.5 million salary if he is sent down to the minors. I see Burke trying very hard to move either Van Ryn or Finger prior to the start of the season to ease the log jam, though that Finger contract may well be impossible to move.
Is Gustavsson ready for the NHL? Burke spent lots of time and effort to land Gustavsson this summer with the idea of him starting the season as Toskala’s backup and hopefully being the number one man next year. The exhibition season will show whether he is ready to step right into the NHL, or if some seasoning with the Marlies is necessary. The signing of Joey MacDonald gives the Leafs a proven backup should Gustavsson need a little more time, but my guess is that Gustavsson will start the year as the Leafs number two goalie.
Is Bozak ready? Hanson and Bozak were two big college signings the Leafs made at the end of last year. Hanson played a few games with the Leafs, but Bozak was kept out of action due to an injury. Bozak is likely the one with the biggest chance to jump right into the NHL and will be given a chance by the club to make the team out of camp. I’d rate his chances as high as 50/50, but seeing him crack the lineup would be great news for the future.
Can Tlusty finally claim a top six spot? While a top six spot on the Leafs isn’t exactly the pinnacle of hockey success, the hope is that Tlusty finally discovered something during his last stint with the Marlies. While it seems as if he’s been trying to crack the lineup for years, he is only 21. If he earn a full time spot on one of the top two lines that would be a big step for him and the team.
Will Kulemin build off his rookie year? Kulemin had a strong rookie campaign with 15 goals and will be given a shot to play right wing on the top line. He showed plenty of skill during his first year and a jump to 25 goals would not be out of reason. Can he and Grabovski find chemistry on the top line?
What will Primeau’s role be? Little was made of the pickup of Wayne Primeau, but I think he may have an important role to play for the team this year. He may well center the fourth line, but he may also see time on the top lines when some size is needed. He has a history of playing for Wilson so look for the team to make good use of his 6’4, 225 pound size if he manages to stay away from injuries.
How will the PK develop? Penalty killing was a major weakness of the team last year. With new size on defense the team should do a better job of clearing the front of the net which will help the goalies. Primeau will also help with his size and reach, but improvement here will be a major focus of camp.
Training camp is less then two weeks away and the season starts in just one month. These chilly mornings are helping us get into the mood.
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