Looking In the Leafs Cupboard

With the Kessel trade done, some of the Leaf knockers can’t resist chanting that this is the same old Leaf organization. Trading away picks for a short term fix thus mortgaging the future is the same old refrain. So, let’s have a look and see how the team projects over the next few seasons at each position.

Right wing seems to be set for years to come with an internal succession plan in place. Kessel and Kulemin are two skill players who will be 22 and 23 at the end of the season and likely mainstays on the top two lines. Colton Orr is set on the fourth line as the main enforcer and can take regular shifts without hurting you. Stempniak’s $2.5 million cap hit expires at the end of this year and Christian Hanson is ready to step in for him on either the second or third line. Further out is Mikhail Stefanovich who had 49 goals in 56 games last year in the QMJHL and is still only 18.

On the left side Blake likely has three more years with the team due to his contract. While the $4 million cap hit hurts, he still has speed and can score giving him some value if the Leafs are a playoff team. Ponikarovsky is in the last year of his contract and will likely be replaced by the cheaper, younger and faster Stalberg on one of the top two lines by the start of next season. Hagman can step into a top two line role when needed, but he is more likely a fixture on a solid third line. Rosehill could crack the team on the fourth line this year with his solid camp, but will most likely claim that spot next year. Robert Slaney is a year or two away, but projects to be a solid second or third line player. For this year Wallin, Primeau and Tlusty all can see time on the left. They are all on the last year of their contracts and Tlusty may have some trade value if the Leafs decide his future is elsewhere.

Center is a concern with the biggest whole for this year being the lack of a true top line center to play with Kessel. Grabovski will fill the top line role by default and will likely be followed by Stajan and Mitchell on the second and third lines. The immediate wild card here is Bozak who could start the season with the big club but will more likely get a couple of months seasoning with the Marlies. The fourth line will be centered by Wallin or Primeau. Botha are competent and Primeau will bolster the PK. Kadri looks to have the talent to be a top line center, but is one or two years away from earning that spot. This could be the spot for a free agent or trade by Burke, though Bozak, Kadri and Mitchell look like a very solid group of young centers two years out. Grabovski and Stajan could be assets the Leafs are willing to move here.

On defense the top two pairings are set with Beauchemin, Schenn, Kaberle and Komisarek. The strength of these pairings will likely leave only twelve minutes of ice time for the third pair. The excess depth is there for this year with Gunnarsson already ready to assume one of the spots when needed. At 18 Jesse Blacker will play another year with Windsor and be ready for the team in two years. Burke has an excess of defenders that he will try and move to restock some draft choices and possibly use in a package deal with Stajan and or Tlusty. If the Kaberle / Komisarek pairing jells look for Burke’s focus to turn to signing Kaberle to an extension instead of trading him. Kaberle and Beauchemin already appear to be solid as the top point pairing on the power play with Beauchemin taking over McCabe’s role in that spot.

Goaltending is an unknown long term until we see Gustavsson play. Ideally he becomes the number one goalie next year and Toskala’s expiring $4 million cap number can be used towards a proven top center. Reimer may be a nice surprise for the future with a full season in the minors and the chance to work with Allaire. If Gustavsson becomes the number one goalie, then I would like to see the Leafs go with an experienced backup like MacDonald for a couple of years

To me, the future looks pretty bright for the Leafs and the cupboard is anything but bare.