NHL East Projections

With less then a week to go until the puck drops its time to make our projections for the coming season. I break the conference into four teams with the Bruins and Penguins as the class of the East. Both have solid teams with no apparent weaknesses and solid goaltending. Not much to pick between the two but I’m ranking the Bruins first on the basis of superior defense, team toughness and coaching with the Penguins a very close second.

The next pack of four teams should all be locks for the playoffs but each has a nagging question or two. The Capitals have the most dominant player in hockey in Ovechkin and his hunger alone should carry the team to third place. The questions here for me are team depth and unproven goaltending where Varlamov only had six NHL games under his belt before his playoff run. The Flyers could challenge for the top spot in the east with Pronger solidifying the defense and a solid top two lines lead by Richards and Carter. This team will be as tough as any to play, but the gamble as always with the Flyers is in goal. Emery is their wildcard and the reason I am picking the team to finish fourth.

Carolina and Jersey had a great playoff series this past spring and will battle all year in the standings. I’m giving the edge to the Hurricanes for fifth with the Devils in sixth. There isn’t much to pick between these two team first clubs, but I see the Devils on a bit of a slide despite Lemaire coming back to coach. The Hurricanes came on strong with the switch to Maurice behind the bench and I see their energy and no name approach being enough to hold off the Devils.

The battle for the last two playoff spots is between five teams and may well go down to the last week of the season. The Sabres are my surprise pick for seventh on the strength of Ryan Miller and a team that is improving from within. The Sabres made the least number of changes and would have been a playoff team last year without Miller’s injury. A homer call here maybe, but I’m calling the Leafs for eighth. They now have the deepest top four defense in the conference and will rely on that strength to improve the league worst goals against average. To make the playoffs, Toskala must rebound and Gustavsson may have to be ready to assume more of the workload as the season moves on. Another advantage often overlooked is Wilson being a superior coach to those teams that I’m calling to miss the playoffs.

The next two are a toss up, but I see the Senators squeezing into ninth with the Canadiens for tenth. The additions of Michalek, Kovalev and Cheechoo will outweigh the loss of Heatley. The weakness of the team is defense and Murray did nothing to address that need while focusing on the Heatley mess. That should keep the Sens out of the playoffs, but if Leclaire is healthy he should be the long awaited answer in goal. The Canadiens have a new coach and gutted the nucleus of their team. There are just too many changes and questions on this team to call them for a playoff spot. Neither Gomez nor Gionta have previously shown that they can lead a team and Price has to show that he has regained his confidence. The Rangers are in the group that can challenge for a playoff spot but I’m calling them for eleventh. Yes they have Lundqvist in net, but they also have Avery as the number one left winger on the depth chart and Graborik has missed big parts of the last two seasons with injuries. I’m calling for them to tumble out of the playoffs.

The Panthers are a nice team with improving youth that could challenge if all breaks their way, but I look for the loss of Bouwmeester to push them back to twelfth. The team’s future is also a distraction as they go without a permanent GM. The Lighting are improving but have a long way to go, so a solid thirteenth is their likely spot. Stamkos will continue to improve and should benefit from Tanguay on his wing. The addition of Ohlund will be great for Hedman and look for this team to make strides next year if they are financially stable.

Kovalchuk has not signed for next year, Lehtonen is coming off back surgery and Antropov was signed to a 4 year $4 million contract. Things do not look good for the Thrashers who should finish second last in the conference and may have to entertain trade offers for Kovalchuk if it becomes clear that they will not be able to resign him. Too many questions for the Islanders to be anything but the pick for last. Tavares will be asked to carry much of the weight on his shoulders and the expectations of him being the next one might be way too high.