The Raps finished their pre-season with another loss and another game where Triano could not use his regular rotation. Turkoglu suffered a minor ankle sprain which limited him to 14 minutes and Evans is still out with his injury. The overall preseason for the team was pretty dismal, but then again the Leafs had a hot preseason and that did not translate well when the regular games began. The team will also benefit by having almost a week off before the first game.
Despite not having the full team to work with, some of Triano’s rotation is starting to come together. The most interesting aspect is how he plans to use DeRozan. The thought is to let the rookie start and then determine his playing time based on how well he does. Instead of giving him minutes later in each half he will start but will likely not see action as the first half and the game wind down. Initially he may only play 15 minutes a game.
This approach makes sense. It lets DeRozan get playing time with the first unit and allows him to play against the league’s best. It also saves him from having to be on the court at crunch time when a veteran like Wright is more useful. As long as the first unit plays well and keeps the team in the game, this approach will let DeRozan earn more minutes as the season goes on. His confidence should also grow by playing at a less intense time of the game. A very positive early sign is DeRozan’s desire to drive to the basket and ability to draw fouls.
With Evans on the shelf, the first players come off the bench will be Wright, Jack and Johnson. If Johnson can provide efficient energy minutes along with solid defense and rebounding, Nesterovic’s minutes will be limited to games where they need him to bump against some of the bigger centers. Evans will become a fan favorite and his toughness will be missed early. Once he joins the rotation the Raptors will have a nice diverse set of skills to be able to bring into the game depending on who is on the court for the other team.
From the early look of things the team will need Belinelli to provide outside shooting off the bench. The Raptors were terrible from the 3 point line during the preseason and need this to turn around to provide more room for the skilled big men.
The only item we haven’t touched on so far is Chris Bosh and he will be the story for the team this year. Physically he seems to be coming into form and finished with a strong 27 point, 14 rebound game. He realizes that he needs to take his game up a notch this year and I am confident he will start out that way.
If the team plays well and settles into a playoff position record wise they should improve as the season goes on. If on the other hand they start off slow there is a real concern that the team could implode by Christmas. If they are well below .500 after 20 games the Bosh free agency talk will escalate and it will be hard for him, and the team, to focus.
What has to be remembered is that this is largely a new team with a coach that is starting his first full season as an NBA head coach. While I like the pieces Colangelo has put together the team is entering a high risk year that could go either way.
The schedule does not do them any favors. They play 8 of their first 12 games on the road and their first two home games are against eastern conference powers Cleveland and Orlando. A 5-7 start through that stretch would be great and allow them to get on a roll when the schedule becomes easier in December.
Maybe I’m still shell shocked by the start of the Leafs this year, but I see them struggling towards a 40-42 season which should let them sneak into the final playoff spot. Let’s hope that I’m wrong and they push for 5 seed. For that to happen, the big three of Bosh, Bargnani and Turkoglu will have to mesh into a top front court quickly.
Saturday, October 24, 2009
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Burke Takes Bad Rap For Mortgaging Future
Toronto is off to a horrid start and things are likely to get worse as they start a five game road trip on the west coast on Saturday. The blogs and radio waves are already filled with people attacking the moves that Burke has made. The most common refrain is that he has mortgaged the future of the team by trading away the team’s top pick the next two years as well as the second rounder in 2010/11.
While I would not have made the Kessel trade since I am not as aggressive as Burke, what I see is Burke fast tracking the team’s youth movement, not abandoning it. During the off season Burke did not just use the draft to pick up youth, he also pushed the Leafs ahead by adding youth in top ranked US college players and by signing Gustavsson from Sweden. Burke is using this approach to supplement the draft and will likely continue to proceed in this manner next year when he is without his top pick.
What Burke is trying to do is accelerate the growth through youth movement by expanding his strategy beyond conventional draft picks. He is willing to fight for top US collegians, top Europeans and by going after young RFA and UFA players.
Kessel is about to turn 22 and is coming off a 36 goal season. He will contribute more to the Leafs this year and next year then the number one pick in next year’s draft. Gustavsson will likely be the starting goaltender for the Leafs and he will likely have more value then the following year’s number one pick. Hanson is likely the equivalent of what the Leafs would hope to get with the number two pick in 2010/11.
While Burke did give up two number one picks and a number two this summer, he picked up Kessel, Gustavsson and Hanson which map to those picks. In addition, Burke also signed Tyler Bozak who should see quite a bit of playing time with the team this season.
The net result is that Burke added four under 25 year old players and has only given up two firsts and a second to achieve this. The top players that he added are more certain to have NHL potential then what may be available in the draft.
From my viewpoint he is not mortgaging the future, but is just fast tracking the addition of youth to the lineup.
While I would not have made the Kessel trade since I am not as aggressive as Burke, what I see is Burke fast tracking the team’s youth movement, not abandoning it. During the off season Burke did not just use the draft to pick up youth, he also pushed the Leafs ahead by adding youth in top ranked US college players and by signing Gustavsson from Sweden. Burke is using this approach to supplement the draft and will likely continue to proceed in this manner next year when he is without his top pick.
What Burke is trying to do is accelerate the growth through youth movement by expanding his strategy beyond conventional draft picks. He is willing to fight for top US collegians, top Europeans and by going after young RFA and UFA players.
Kessel is about to turn 22 and is coming off a 36 goal season. He will contribute more to the Leafs this year and next year then the number one pick in next year’s draft. Gustavsson will likely be the starting goaltender for the Leafs and he will likely have more value then the following year’s number one pick. Hanson is likely the equivalent of what the Leafs would hope to get with the number two pick in 2010/11.
While Burke did give up two number one picks and a number two this summer, he picked up Kessel, Gustavsson and Hanson which map to those picks. In addition, Burke also signed Tyler Bozak who should see quite a bit of playing time with the team this season.
The net result is that Burke added four under 25 year old players and has only given up two firsts and a second to achieve this. The top players that he added are more certain to have NHL potential then what may be available in the draft.
From my viewpoint he is not mortgaging the future, but is just fast tracking the addition of youth to the lineup.
Friday, October 16, 2009
NHL's Place in North America Sports
Headlines today talk about the City of Quebec pushing for a new $400 million hockey arena to lure back NHL hockey. The city has volunteered to put up $50 million and is asking the provincial and federal governments to each contribute $175 million under infrastructure programs. Now let me do some quick calculations here and figure out how much they are expecting from the multi-millionaires that will own the team that plays in the arena. In quick ballpark figures, that number would be zero.
In reading the positioning of their funding request you shake your head when you read that they are requesting the $350 million from the other levels of government under what they term infrastructure payments. Are we to assume that the road, sewage, transit, health and education systems are all up to snuff and do not require any of these funds? Are we to assume that this is the “perfect” time in our economic cycle to ask for this money? Maybe I missed something but I thought that we were in a major economic crisis with unemployment at maximum levels and a deficit that is racing to levels that will result in major inflation even if the current economic crisis is solved. Is this really the time for any rational politician to look for $400 million to fund an arena that will be used by a privately owned hockey team?
This brings me to what else is wrong with this picture. Why is a $400 million hockey arena now considered to be the price of admission the NHL is demanding for a city to qualify for a franchise. It is not enough that a city like Quebec, Hamilton, or Winnipeg may have fans to sell out NHL games? But after meetings with Bettman, it appears that a prerequisite now is that the hosting city find $400 million of taxpayer money to fund an arena that is suitable for the NHL.
Now why does the NHL require a $400 million arena when a 16,000 capacity hockey arena could be built for roughly half that price? The answer of course is luxury boxes. Luxury boxes exist in the NFL, NBA and major league baseball, so the assumption is that of course they must exist for NHL teams. Why? Well, the owners have to find a way to generate the money to fund player salaries that run up to $8 million dollars and pay an average player $2 - $3 million.
Unlike the true major North American sports leagues, the NHL does not have a national television contract in the U.S. to help pay the freight. When the NHL pretends that it is a major league it is putting a financial burden on most cities that they just can not afford. There is only so much money that corporate citizens and fans have to spend. In Canada and some of the major northern US cities there is either enough love for the game, or the city is large enough that it can afford to support an NHL that prices itself as a major league sport. In many US cities this is not the case as we see in Phoenix, Miami, Atlanta, Dallas, Nashville, Tampa, etc.
The NHL sees the abyss that many of their franchises are heading towards in the southern U.S. They are now coming to Canadian cities in the hopes that will find desperate local governments. It is not enough that hard working fans exist in these cities to support the team, but the governments must also cough up $400 million to build the super arena that the NHL demands. Hopefully these cities have the sense to say “No”. The way the league is structured it has priced itself out of any city that does not have a vacant arena lying around, or a government that is willing to sacrifice other priorities for the ego boost of having an NHL team.
If cities refuse to be held for ransom it will not be long before the NHL is faced with two real options that are dictated by the marketplace. One choice will be to contract the league to cities that do consider the NHL to be a major sports league. The other, will be to change their pricing and salary structures to market driven figures. This likely means either the elimination of the salary cap with team salaries being dependant on the money generated by each franchise, or a massive revenue sharing arrangement where the rich franchises share with the poor.
Either way the end result would be that ticket prices and player salaries come down to what the market will truly support. The reality is that in most cities the NHL is B List entertainment and the stars of B List movies do not make what the stars of A List movies make.
In reading the positioning of their funding request you shake your head when you read that they are requesting the $350 million from the other levels of government under what they term infrastructure payments. Are we to assume that the road, sewage, transit, health and education systems are all up to snuff and do not require any of these funds? Are we to assume that this is the “perfect” time in our economic cycle to ask for this money? Maybe I missed something but I thought that we were in a major economic crisis with unemployment at maximum levels and a deficit that is racing to levels that will result in major inflation even if the current economic crisis is solved. Is this really the time for any rational politician to look for $400 million to fund an arena that will be used by a privately owned hockey team?
This brings me to what else is wrong with this picture. Why is a $400 million hockey arena now considered to be the price of admission the NHL is demanding for a city to qualify for a franchise. It is not enough that a city like Quebec, Hamilton, or Winnipeg may have fans to sell out NHL games? But after meetings with Bettman, it appears that a prerequisite now is that the hosting city find $400 million of taxpayer money to fund an arena that is suitable for the NHL.
Now why does the NHL require a $400 million arena when a 16,000 capacity hockey arena could be built for roughly half that price? The answer of course is luxury boxes. Luxury boxes exist in the NFL, NBA and major league baseball, so the assumption is that of course they must exist for NHL teams. Why? Well, the owners have to find a way to generate the money to fund player salaries that run up to $8 million dollars and pay an average player $2 - $3 million.
Unlike the true major North American sports leagues, the NHL does not have a national television contract in the U.S. to help pay the freight. When the NHL pretends that it is a major league it is putting a financial burden on most cities that they just can not afford. There is only so much money that corporate citizens and fans have to spend. In Canada and some of the major northern US cities there is either enough love for the game, or the city is large enough that it can afford to support an NHL that prices itself as a major league sport. In many US cities this is not the case as we see in Phoenix, Miami, Atlanta, Dallas, Nashville, Tampa, etc.
The NHL sees the abyss that many of their franchises are heading towards in the southern U.S. They are now coming to Canadian cities in the hopes that will find desperate local governments. It is not enough that hard working fans exist in these cities to support the team, but the governments must also cough up $400 million to build the super arena that the NHL demands. Hopefully these cities have the sense to say “No”. The way the league is structured it has priced itself out of any city that does not have a vacant arena lying around, or a government that is willing to sacrifice other priorities for the ego boost of having an NHL team.
If cities refuse to be held for ransom it will not be long before the NHL is faced with two real options that are dictated by the marketplace. One choice will be to contract the league to cities that do consider the NHL to be a major sports league. The other, will be to change their pricing and salary structures to market driven figures. This likely means either the elimination of the salary cap with team salaries being dependant on the money generated by each franchise, or a massive revenue sharing arrangement where the rich franchises share with the poor.
Either way the end result would be that ticket prices and player salaries come down to what the market will truly support. The reality is that in most cities the NHL is B List entertainment and the stars of B List movies do not make what the stars of A List movies make.
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
NFL Top 10 and Week 6 Picks
1 - NY Giants 5-0 (Last week 1)
Mercy move by the Giants when they pull Eli to go with Carr in the drubbing of the Raiders. Big game next week when they travel to New Orleans to face the undefeated Saints.
2 - New Orleans 4-0 (Last week 2)
We’ll keep the Saints at number two after the by week. Two weeks off to prepare to host the Giants will help.
3 - Indianapolis 5-0 (Last week 3)
The Titans defense could not slow the Colts as they cruise to an easy 31-9 victory. 309 yards in the air and 3 touchdowns for Peyton.
4 - Minnesota 5-0 (Last week 4)
You can only beat who you are scheduled to play. An easy win on the road over the Rams this week, but a big challenge coming up when they host the Ravens.
5 - Denver 5-0 (Last week 8)
All they do is keep winning. A very impressive come from behind overtime victory against the Patriots including a 95 yard fourth quarter drive by Orton who had 330 yards and 2 touchdown passes.
6 - Philadelphia 3-1 (Last week unranked)
McNabb returns from his injury with 3 TD passes and the Eagles from their by week cruising to a solid 33-14 win over the Bucs.
7 - New England 3-2 (Last week 5)
The Patriots played a solid game but let the Broncos fight back to tie the game late and then lose in overtime.
8 - Atlanta 3-1 (Last week unranked)
No problem for the Falcons as they shred the Niners defense. Ryan passed for 329 yards and 2 touchdowns while Turner had 97 yards and 3 touchdowns rushing.
9 - Cincinnati 4-1 (Last week unranked)
Another surprise team off to a good start. A road win against the Ravens last week gives them the lead in the division.
10 - NY Jets 3-2 (Last week 6)
Very unlike the Jets to give up 21 points in the fourth quarter. After two tough losses on the road hosting the Bills at home next week should be the perfect tonic.
Top Picks Week 6 (Last week 0-3, Season 6-9)
Chicago plus 3 ½ at Atlanta. This should be a tough game decided by a touchdown either way so I’m taking the Bears plus the points.
Houston plus 6 at Cincinnati. Maybe I’m late believing in the Bengals but I’m taking the Texans and the points in what I think could be an outright win.
NY Giants plus 3 at New Orleans. The big game of the week with two undefeated teams. I’m not ready to go against the consistency of the Giants so I’m taking them and the points.
Mercy move by the Giants when they pull Eli to go with Carr in the drubbing of the Raiders. Big game next week when they travel to New Orleans to face the undefeated Saints.
2 - New Orleans 4-0 (Last week 2)
We’ll keep the Saints at number two after the by week. Two weeks off to prepare to host the Giants will help.
3 - Indianapolis 5-0 (Last week 3)
The Titans defense could not slow the Colts as they cruise to an easy 31-9 victory. 309 yards in the air and 3 touchdowns for Peyton.
4 - Minnesota 5-0 (Last week 4)
You can only beat who you are scheduled to play. An easy win on the road over the Rams this week, but a big challenge coming up when they host the Ravens.
5 - Denver 5-0 (Last week 8)
All they do is keep winning. A very impressive come from behind overtime victory against the Patriots including a 95 yard fourth quarter drive by Orton who had 330 yards and 2 touchdown passes.
6 - Philadelphia 3-1 (Last week unranked)
McNabb returns from his injury with 3 TD passes and the Eagles from their by week cruising to a solid 33-14 win over the Bucs.
7 - New England 3-2 (Last week 5)
The Patriots played a solid game but let the Broncos fight back to tie the game late and then lose in overtime.
8 - Atlanta 3-1 (Last week unranked)
No problem for the Falcons as they shred the Niners defense. Ryan passed for 329 yards and 2 touchdowns while Turner had 97 yards and 3 touchdowns rushing.
9 - Cincinnati 4-1 (Last week unranked)
Another surprise team off to a good start. A road win against the Ravens last week gives them the lead in the division.
10 - NY Jets 3-2 (Last week 6)
Very unlike the Jets to give up 21 points in the fourth quarter. After two tough losses on the road hosting the Bills at home next week should be the perfect tonic.
Top Picks Week 6 (Last week 0-3, Season 6-9)
Chicago plus 3 ½ at Atlanta. This should be a tough game decided by a touchdown either way so I’m taking the Bears plus the points.
Houston plus 6 at Cincinnati. Maybe I’m late believing in the Bengals but I’m taking the Texans and the points in what I think could be an outright win.
NY Giants plus 3 at New Orleans. The big game of the week with two undefeated teams. I’m not ready to go against the consistency of the Giants so I’m taking them and the points.
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
Maybe A Way Out For Blake
There is lots of talk about burying Blake in the minors but that is easier said then done. The problem isn’t just one of MLSE agreeing to swallow Blake’s contract while he plays for the Marlies. The bigger problem is what Blake’s attitude will be down in the minors and how that will effect the players there. Burying a player like Blake also creates a bad impression for the team among NHL agents.
An out of the box thought is trying to move Blake for a worse contract that you are willing to eat. The name that comes to mind is Rick DiPietro. When healthy he is an outstanding goalie. The question is whether he will ever be healthy again. The Islanders signed him to a crazy long term deal that still has over ten years to run at $4.5 million per season and would love to get out from under that commitment.
At present DiPietro is costing the team salary but not cap space since he is on injured reserve. The Islanders do not need the cap relief and they certainly don’t want to throw $4.5 million per year down the drain on a player that is not contributing. For them, Blake’s contract at a $4 million cap hit, but only $3 million in actual salary for the next two years, would look great compared to DiPietro’s.
The question here is; would the Leafs be willing to take DiPietro’s contract off the Islanders hands? If they are serious about being willing to eat a bad contract then maybe Toronto is willing to pick up his contract, pay his salary, and get cap relief if he can not return.
Because of the contracts, a straight Blake for DiPietro is stacked in the Islanders favor so this should allow Burke to expand the deal. The player that I’d be interested in picking up from the Islanders is Josh Bailey. Bailey has slipped to number three at center on the Islanders depth chart, but at 19 he still has the potential to be a number one center. Going the Islanders way would be either Stajan or Grabovski.
Why would the Islanders do this? They immediately pick up production by adding Blake and either Stajan or Grabovski while only losing their number three center. More importantly they get out from under the remaining salary commitment to DiPietro who may never be able to resume his career as a full time number one goalie.
The Leafs pick up the $4.5 million salary commitment but this will only count against their cap if DiPietro is healthy enough to resume his career as a number one goalie. That is highly unlikely and if it were to occur, it is not a bad problem to have. They also pick up a top prospect that is ready to play in the NHL today and will be a legitimate top two line center and possibly the partner for Phil Kessel.
Is this deal sellable to either team? Likely not, but it is the type of out of the box thinking that Burke will have to consider to move the team forward.
An out of the box thought is trying to move Blake for a worse contract that you are willing to eat. The name that comes to mind is Rick DiPietro. When healthy he is an outstanding goalie. The question is whether he will ever be healthy again. The Islanders signed him to a crazy long term deal that still has over ten years to run at $4.5 million per season and would love to get out from under that commitment.
At present DiPietro is costing the team salary but not cap space since he is on injured reserve. The Islanders do not need the cap relief and they certainly don’t want to throw $4.5 million per year down the drain on a player that is not contributing. For them, Blake’s contract at a $4 million cap hit, but only $3 million in actual salary for the next two years, would look great compared to DiPietro’s.
The question here is; would the Leafs be willing to take DiPietro’s contract off the Islanders hands? If they are serious about being willing to eat a bad contract then maybe Toronto is willing to pick up his contract, pay his salary, and get cap relief if he can not return.
Because of the contracts, a straight Blake for DiPietro is stacked in the Islanders favor so this should allow Burke to expand the deal. The player that I’d be interested in picking up from the Islanders is Josh Bailey. Bailey has slipped to number three at center on the Islanders depth chart, but at 19 he still has the potential to be a number one center. Going the Islanders way would be either Stajan or Grabovski.
Why would the Islanders do this? They immediately pick up production by adding Blake and either Stajan or Grabovski while only losing their number three center. More importantly they get out from under the remaining salary commitment to DiPietro who may never be able to resume his career as a full time number one goalie.
The Leafs pick up the $4.5 million salary commitment but this will only count against their cap if DiPietro is healthy enough to resume his career as a number one goalie. That is highly unlikely and if it were to occur, it is not a bad problem to have. They also pick up a top prospect that is ready to play in the NHL today and will be a legitimate top two line center and possibly the partner for Phil Kessel.
Is this deal sellable to either team? Likely not, but it is the type of out of the box thinking that Burke will have to consider to move the team forward.
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
Leafs After Three Games
After an exciting pre-season the regular season has gotten off to a bumpy start for the Leafs. All three games have resulted in losses, but the interesting thing is that each game was different. That could show that the team has more problems with different deficiencies being exposed each time, or it could show that the team has the ability to correct the deficiencies and just needs to find a way to put it all together.
The biggest concern so far is the defense. Burke invested heavily in the off season with the acquisitions of Komisarek and Beauchemin. Together with Kaberle and Schenn they were supposed to be the big four and provide 45-50 minutes of solid defense each game. Komisarek got off to a rough start against Montreal but we can write that one off to over exuberance against his former team. Since then he has steadied his play and it looks like he and Kaberle could be a strong number one pairing with Kaberle leading the rushes.
The real disappointment has been the number two pair. Beauchemin has gotten off to a really bad start and does not look like a top four defender on a contenting team. Schenn has had an equally shaky start to the year and there is no chemistry between the two. It may be time for the Leafs to look at dropping Schenn back to the third pairing for a while and move a Finger or Van Ryn (when he is healthy) into the second pair to work with Beauchemin. The problems here are likely temporary. It is not unusual for a 19 year old defenseman to struggle in his second year and Beauchemin is too solid of a veteran not to find his game. The only real question is whether the two of them will make the solid pairing that was forecast as the season moves on.
Toskala’s shaky start gave the team an early opportunity to give Gustavsson his first start. So far Gustavsson has done absolutely nothing to disappoint or show that he will not be the number one goalie at season’s end. Granted he has only played five periods of regular season NHL action, but he shows the confidence, agility, positioning and rebound control that you need in your number one goaltender. The Leafs will likely delay such a proclamation for as long as possible since they need to help Toskala rediscover his game if only for the sake of him providing some value for him at the trade deadline.
In Toskala’s defense fans should remember that he is trying to modify his style under the tutelage of Allaire and the team did not play solid defense in front of him. The reality however is that at 32, and in the last year of his $4 million contract there is no future here for Toskala. The team would be just as well served with a 29 year old MacDonald earning under $1 million serving as back up.
The forward units are a bigger concern for the team. Stempniak, Mitchell, Stalberg and Stajan have played well so far. Grabovski shows flashes of speed and skill, but his inability to win face offs against top centers wastes half of each shift for his line since they need to spend that time getting the puck back. Ponikarovsky is his old steady self but is showing that he will not be on the team next year. The Leafs sorely need to get Kessel’s finishing touch into the lineup and it remains a question as to whether he will play with Stajan or Grabovski, or will Bozak will be in the lineup by that time.
The bottom six needs to be settled as well but we can expect quite a bit of shuffling here throughout the season. Rosehill and Orr can not play on the same line but both may find a place in the regular lineup. To compete, the Leafs need to roll four lines since they must rely on energy and fore checking for a full sixty minutes.
Three games in it is too early to panic but the pieces have to come together quickly. With the schedule for the balance of the month being very difficult this will not be easy but the Leafs can not afford to fall too far back of a playoff position.
The biggest concern so far is the defense. Burke invested heavily in the off season with the acquisitions of Komisarek and Beauchemin. Together with Kaberle and Schenn they were supposed to be the big four and provide 45-50 minutes of solid defense each game. Komisarek got off to a rough start against Montreal but we can write that one off to over exuberance against his former team. Since then he has steadied his play and it looks like he and Kaberle could be a strong number one pairing with Kaberle leading the rushes.
The real disappointment has been the number two pair. Beauchemin has gotten off to a really bad start and does not look like a top four defender on a contenting team. Schenn has had an equally shaky start to the year and there is no chemistry between the two. It may be time for the Leafs to look at dropping Schenn back to the third pairing for a while and move a Finger or Van Ryn (when he is healthy) into the second pair to work with Beauchemin. The problems here are likely temporary. It is not unusual for a 19 year old defenseman to struggle in his second year and Beauchemin is too solid of a veteran not to find his game. The only real question is whether the two of them will make the solid pairing that was forecast as the season moves on.
Toskala’s shaky start gave the team an early opportunity to give Gustavsson his first start. So far Gustavsson has done absolutely nothing to disappoint or show that he will not be the number one goalie at season’s end. Granted he has only played five periods of regular season NHL action, but he shows the confidence, agility, positioning and rebound control that you need in your number one goaltender. The Leafs will likely delay such a proclamation for as long as possible since they need to help Toskala rediscover his game if only for the sake of him providing some value for him at the trade deadline.
In Toskala’s defense fans should remember that he is trying to modify his style under the tutelage of Allaire and the team did not play solid defense in front of him. The reality however is that at 32, and in the last year of his $4 million contract there is no future here for Toskala. The team would be just as well served with a 29 year old MacDonald earning under $1 million serving as back up.
The forward units are a bigger concern for the team. Stempniak, Mitchell, Stalberg and Stajan have played well so far. Grabovski shows flashes of speed and skill, but his inability to win face offs against top centers wastes half of each shift for his line since they need to spend that time getting the puck back. Ponikarovsky is his old steady self but is showing that he will not be on the team next year. The Leafs sorely need to get Kessel’s finishing touch into the lineup and it remains a question as to whether he will play with Stajan or Grabovski, or will Bozak will be in the lineup by that time.
The bottom six needs to be settled as well but we can expect quite a bit of shuffling here throughout the season. Rosehill and Orr can not play on the same line but both may find a place in the regular lineup. To compete, the Leafs need to roll four lines since they must rely on energy and fore checking for a full sixty minutes.
Three games in it is too early to panic but the pieces have to come together quickly. With the schedule for the balance of the month being very difficult this will not be easy but the Leafs can not afford to fall too far back of a playoff position.
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
NFL Top 10 and Week 5 Picks
1 - NY Giants 4-0 (Last week 1)
The Giants ease to another workman like road victory against the Chiefs. A solid day for Eli with 292 yards and 3 TD passes.
2 - New Orleans 4-0 (Last week 3)
A two touchdown home win against the Jets where the defense held Mark Sanchez to 138 yards through the air. A bye next week leading up to the big game in two weeks when they host the Giants.
3 - Indianapolis 4-0 (Last week 5)
Peyton continues to dominate with 353 yards in the air in a very easy road victory against the Seahawks. So far they haven't missed a beat with the retirement of Dungy.
4 - Minnesota 4-0 (Last week 6)
The Vikings march on and Brett comes through with the win against his former team the Packers. Some concerns on defense where they gave up 384 yards through the air.
5 - New England 3-1 (Last week 7)
Patriots are rounding into form with a solid home win against the Ravens. Next week we get a reality check as they travel to Denver to play the surprising and undefeated Broncos.
6 - NY Jets 3-1 (Last week 2)
A loss at the Saints shouldn’t knock you down too much, but the offense was shut down on all fronts. Next week is important since a team led by a rookie QB needs to bounce back quickly.
7 - Baltimore 3-1 (Last week 4)
Ravens did not look all that bad on the road against in New England. The Patriots managed to control the game with ball control offense giving them a 10 minute edge in possession.
8 - Denver 4-0 (Last week unrated)
The Broncos finally crack the top 10 with a home win against the Cowboys. I’m not showing much respect for them yet, but next week’s game against the Patriots could change that, or knock them back out of the top 10.
9 - San Francisco 3-1 (Last week 10)
Frank Gore is still out with the ankle injury and Hill was held to 152 yards in the air. A problem? Nope. The Niners still cruise to a 35-0 win over the sad sack Rams at home.
10 - Chicago 3-1 (Last week 9)
We’ll drop them one spot due to a lack luster first half where they gave up three touchdowns to the Lions. They recovered nicely in the second half to win by 24.
Top Picks Week 5 (Last week 0-3, Season 6-6)
Ouch. A painful shutout last week dropping us back to .500 for the season.
New England minus 3 at Denver. Well I’m still not buying into Denver being a solid team. I’ll take the Patriots and give up 3 points on the road.
Houston plus 5 ½ at Arizona. I see both these teams as about even so I’m going to take 5 ½ points and go with the Texans on a short road trip.
NY Jets minus 1 ½ at Miami. Miami looked good against the Bills but this is an important in division bounce back game for the Jets so I’ll give up the 1 ½ points.
The Giants ease to another workman like road victory against the Chiefs. A solid day for Eli with 292 yards and 3 TD passes.
2 - New Orleans 4-0 (Last week 3)
A two touchdown home win against the Jets where the defense held Mark Sanchez to 138 yards through the air. A bye next week leading up to the big game in two weeks when they host the Giants.
3 - Indianapolis 4-0 (Last week 5)
Peyton continues to dominate with 353 yards in the air in a very easy road victory against the Seahawks. So far they haven't missed a beat with the retirement of Dungy.
4 - Minnesota 4-0 (Last week 6)
The Vikings march on and Brett comes through with the win against his former team the Packers. Some concerns on defense where they gave up 384 yards through the air.
5 - New England 3-1 (Last week 7)
Patriots are rounding into form with a solid home win against the Ravens. Next week we get a reality check as they travel to Denver to play the surprising and undefeated Broncos.
6 - NY Jets 3-1 (Last week 2)
A loss at the Saints shouldn’t knock you down too much, but the offense was shut down on all fronts. Next week is important since a team led by a rookie QB needs to bounce back quickly.
7 - Baltimore 3-1 (Last week 4)
Ravens did not look all that bad on the road against in New England. The Patriots managed to control the game with ball control offense giving them a 10 minute edge in possession.
8 - Denver 4-0 (Last week unrated)
The Broncos finally crack the top 10 with a home win against the Cowboys. I’m not showing much respect for them yet, but next week’s game against the Patriots could change that, or knock them back out of the top 10.
9 - San Francisco 3-1 (Last week 10)
Frank Gore is still out with the ankle injury and Hill was held to 152 yards in the air. A problem? Nope. The Niners still cruise to a 35-0 win over the sad sack Rams at home.
10 - Chicago 3-1 (Last week 9)
We’ll drop them one spot due to a lack luster first half where they gave up three touchdowns to the Lions. They recovered nicely in the second half to win by 24.
Top Picks Week 5 (Last week 0-3, Season 6-6)
Ouch. A painful shutout last week dropping us back to .500 for the season.
New England minus 3 at Denver. Well I’m still not buying into Denver being a solid team. I’ll take the Patriots and give up 3 points on the road.
Houston plus 5 ½ at Arizona. I see both these teams as about even so I’m going to take 5 ½ points and go with the Texans on a short road trip.
NY Jets minus 1 ½ at Miami. Miami looked good against the Bills but this is an important in division bounce back game for the Jets so I’ll give up the 1 ½ points.
Monday, October 5, 2009
Jays In Holding Pattern
What I would love to do this morning is look ahead to the Jays off season and play the game of trying to figure out what they will do to improve the team for next year. The problem is we really don’t know what the goal of the team will be for 2010 or what the budget will be.
The firing of JP over the weekend was expected. His credibility was spent with the fans and media and Rogers had no choice but to replace him. Overall I don’t think that JP did a terrible job. Competing with the Yankees and Red Sox is a no win situation and the Jays did as well as could be expected. The unbalanced schedule forces them to play 26 games with the Yankees and Red Sox each season. If the Jays were in the Central division they would have played these teams half as much and may well have been in a playoff race as often as not. JP also leaves the team with young talent that is already starting to mature.
For the moment, the GM of the team is Alex Anthopoulos but even he does not know if his position is permanent. The Jays have been in the process of hiring a new president and word now is that this will take place by the end of October. Once a new president is in place the GM position will be reassessed. Anthopoulos states that he has the authority to make player and managerial moves but do not expect anything significant to take place until the president’s position is finalized and a direction is set for 2010.
My guess is that Anthopoulos’ future lies with the future of Beeston. If Beeston stays highly involved with the Jays going forward then Anthopoulos may well get the chance to be the permanent GM. If a new president takes over all baseball operations then look for a proven GM to be put in place. Over the past few years Anthopoulos has made friends with the Toronto media and they will give him a chance to succeed. Whether the fans buy into this is less certain.
The big question regarding the future is whether the team will increase of decrease the player budget. While some in the media forecast a budget increase the signals do not look that way. The Jays recently laid off much of their marketing staff and that may well foreshadow budgetary cuts on the field as well.
The pressing matter player wise is Roy Halladay. Halladay wants to see that the Jays are committed to spending the money necessary to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox next year or he will not consider re-signing. The chances of this happening are remote. The likelihood is that Halladay will be moved this off season. Whether the Jays will be able to get more for him then they could have received at the trade deadline is an unknown. For future fan relations it may have been best to have let JP make the Halladay trade a couple of months ago instead of saddling the new GM with this responsibility and fan backlash.
On the field the team has promise. Hill and Lind had great years and if Snyder can take his game to the major league level the Jays have a strong young offensive core. Even without Halladay, the starting staff has potential with kids like Romero, Rzepcynski and Richmond, but they will need some veteran leadership. The bullpen does not have a true closer but has quality depth with Frasor, Camp, Accardo, Downs and League. The team will try to move Overbay over the winter and it is uncertain whether Scutero or Barajas will be back.
How the team fills the holes or uses the money available if Halladay and Overbay leave is impossible to forecast until Rogers decides on the budget and direction of the ream. For now any speculation would just be a guess. All we can do is hope that once a permanent president is announced the direction will be made clear as well. Hopefully this happens while fan interest in the team can be rekindled.
The firing of JP over the weekend was expected. His credibility was spent with the fans and media and Rogers had no choice but to replace him. Overall I don’t think that JP did a terrible job. Competing with the Yankees and Red Sox is a no win situation and the Jays did as well as could be expected. The unbalanced schedule forces them to play 26 games with the Yankees and Red Sox each season. If the Jays were in the Central division they would have played these teams half as much and may well have been in a playoff race as often as not. JP also leaves the team with young talent that is already starting to mature.
For the moment, the GM of the team is Alex Anthopoulos but even he does not know if his position is permanent. The Jays have been in the process of hiring a new president and word now is that this will take place by the end of October. Once a new president is in place the GM position will be reassessed. Anthopoulos states that he has the authority to make player and managerial moves but do not expect anything significant to take place until the president’s position is finalized and a direction is set for 2010.
My guess is that Anthopoulos’ future lies with the future of Beeston. If Beeston stays highly involved with the Jays going forward then Anthopoulos may well get the chance to be the permanent GM. If a new president takes over all baseball operations then look for a proven GM to be put in place. Over the past few years Anthopoulos has made friends with the Toronto media and they will give him a chance to succeed. Whether the fans buy into this is less certain.
The big question regarding the future is whether the team will increase of decrease the player budget. While some in the media forecast a budget increase the signals do not look that way. The Jays recently laid off much of their marketing staff and that may well foreshadow budgetary cuts on the field as well.
The pressing matter player wise is Roy Halladay. Halladay wants to see that the Jays are committed to spending the money necessary to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox next year or he will not consider re-signing. The chances of this happening are remote. The likelihood is that Halladay will be moved this off season. Whether the Jays will be able to get more for him then they could have received at the trade deadline is an unknown. For future fan relations it may have been best to have let JP make the Halladay trade a couple of months ago instead of saddling the new GM with this responsibility and fan backlash.
On the field the team has promise. Hill and Lind had great years and if Snyder can take his game to the major league level the Jays have a strong young offensive core. Even without Halladay, the starting staff has potential with kids like Romero, Rzepcynski and Richmond, but they will need some veteran leadership. The bullpen does not have a true closer but has quality depth with Frasor, Camp, Accardo, Downs and League. The team will try to move Overbay over the winter and it is uncertain whether Scutero or Barajas will be back.
How the team fills the holes or uses the money available if Halladay and Overbay leave is impossible to forecast until Rogers decides on the budget and direction of the ream. For now any speculation would just be a guess. All we can do is hope that once a permanent president is announced the direction will be made clear as well. Hopefully this happens while fan interest in the team can be rekindled.
Friday, October 2, 2009
Jays Player Revolt
The news is spreading this morning that the Jays players have turned on Cito and do not want him back next year. Normally I support management and am not in favor of the inmates running the asylum. However in this case I am not surprised at the feelings of the players and do think that its time for Cito to slip back into retirement.
The word is that the players find that Cito does not communicate and is constantly negative. What I have seen in this reincarnation of Cito is that his calm and experienced manner has tipped to the point of being arrogance. He seems to take pride in not showing emotion to the point that he looks like wins or losses have no effect on him. When I listen to him speak I see a man who’s pride does not let him admit that any problem with the Jays may be his fault. The blame from him always seems to fall on the players and that they are not adopting his plan.
When you manage, a big part of the job is teaching and communicating. Even if the lesson that you are teaching is correct, there is a problem if your students are not learning. A good teacher should not simply shrug his shoulders and blame the students for not learning. A good teacher should realize that learning is a two way street and it is also the teacher’s job to figure out a way to get through to his students. If the students are not learning, you have to find a new way to teach.
Cito appears to be lost in the past. When he was rehired last year he did not look to find the best new coaches. Instead he went back to his personal comfort zone and hired the coaches that were with him in the Jays glory years over fifteen years ago. These coaches had not gone on to greatness in the intervening years, but had largely been forgotten by baseball. They, like Cito, had chosen not to grow with the game but remained steadfast in their beliefs that their old ways are the best ways. Baseball is a grand old game, but time and people do move on and must continue to grow and learn.
You would think that Cito’s quiet confidence would be appreciated by veteran players. Maybe it can be accepted by a veteran team that is winning and has veteran leaders. But today that attitude is seen as one of detachment and arrogance. The manager does not seem to be part of the team and the manager does not seem willing to take any responsibility for the failures of the team.
While the Jays were spiraling down after their hot start much heat was put on the players and JP. When Cito was asked about his future he seemed to just assume that none of this was his fault, or even concern, and he mused on about his plans to manage in 2010 and then retire and spend more time with his grand children. His whole attitude was that his methods were beyond question and it would solely be his decision when he would choose to step aside.
Maybe it is Cito’s close relationship with Beeston that gives him this feeling of security. However, when he spoke he did not seem like a manager that was looking for ways to turn his team around. He was just going to carry on doing what he had always done until he did not feel like doing it any more. That attitude does not inspire the group of men that you are leading.
It is interesting that Cito used to be considered a players’ manager. Maybe in his day players wanted a manager that let them be. Today it appears that players want a manager that will lead them and be part of the team.
I believe that Cito’s best days are in his past and this off season it is time to go with a new and more aggressive approach to try and win games and win back fans.
The word is that the players find that Cito does not communicate and is constantly negative. What I have seen in this reincarnation of Cito is that his calm and experienced manner has tipped to the point of being arrogance. He seems to take pride in not showing emotion to the point that he looks like wins or losses have no effect on him. When I listen to him speak I see a man who’s pride does not let him admit that any problem with the Jays may be his fault. The blame from him always seems to fall on the players and that they are not adopting his plan.
When you manage, a big part of the job is teaching and communicating. Even if the lesson that you are teaching is correct, there is a problem if your students are not learning. A good teacher should not simply shrug his shoulders and blame the students for not learning. A good teacher should realize that learning is a two way street and it is also the teacher’s job to figure out a way to get through to his students. If the students are not learning, you have to find a new way to teach.
Cito appears to be lost in the past. When he was rehired last year he did not look to find the best new coaches. Instead he went back to his personal comfort zone and hired the coaches that were with him in the Jays glory years over fifteen years ago. These coaches had not gone on to greatness in the intervening years, but had largely been forgotten by baseball. They, like Cito, had chosen not to grow with the game but remained steadfast in their beliefs that their old ways are the best ways. Baseball is a grand old game, but time and people do move on and must continue to grow and learn.
You would think that Cito’s quiet confidence would be appreciated by veteran players. Maybe it can be accepted by a veteran team that is winning and has veteran leaders. But today that attitude is seen as one of detachment and arrogance. The manager does not seem to be part of the team and the manager does not seem willing to take any responsibility for the failures of the team.
While the Jays were spiraling down after their hot start much heat was put on the players and JP. When Cito was asked about his future he seemed to just assume that none of this was his fault, or even concern, and he mused on about his plans to manage in 2010 and then retire and spend more time with his grand children. His whole attitude was that his methods were beyond question and it would solely be his decision when he would choose to step aside.
Maybe it is Cito’s close relationship with Beeston that gives him this feeling of security. However, when he spoke he did not seem like a manager that was looking for ways to turn his team around. He was just going to carry on doing what he had always done until he did not feel like doing it any more. That attitude does not inspire the group of men that you are leading.
It is interesting that Cito used to be considered a players’ manager. Maybe in his day players wanted a manager that let them be. Today it appears that players want a manager that will lead them and be part of the team.
I believe that Cito’s best days are in his past and this off season it is time to go with a new and more aggressive approach to try and win games and win back fans.
Thursday, October 1, 2009
Leaf Dreams Before Game One
Before the first puck is dropped all teams are in a tie for first. Now is the time to dream a little as a fan so let me take a look into my blue and white crystal ball and see what surprises I would love to see for the Leafs as the year unfolds.
The biggest need for any playoff team is goaltending. The Leafs need rock solid goaltending this season for the team to contend. The chances are that Toskala is not the player to do this. For the team to succeed they need to have Gustavsson take over the number one job and pardon the pun, have a monster year. The best possible scenario is for Toskala to play well, but for Gustavsson to outshine him as a backup to the point that he takes over the starter’s job by the new year. Ideally, another team loses a starting goalie before the trade deadline and Burke can move Toskala for a pick and a prospect at that time.
Komisarek needs to show that he is fully recovered from the problems that he had last year. If he has, he will provide the solid partner that Kaberle needs and you will see Kaberle come back with a 60 plus point year. If Komisarek shows that he is back to his former self he may well be wearing the C on his chest before the first snow falls.
The number one power play unit should be very strong once Kessel returns. Kaberle and Beauchemin should be a great pairing on the points. Kaberle will quarterback the unit and Beauchemin has the one timer that will remind fans of McCabe. Stalberg has the quickness and size to work the corner but should also set up camp in front of the net where he can tip in shots and battle for rebounds. Kessel will have room to find open ice for his shot.
The bigger concern is the penalty kill and how much ice time it will see. The Leafs need to be tough, but they have to show restraint and can not lead the league in short handed minutes. If the goaltending breaks as we hope, then Wilson and his coaches should have the players now to provide much better penalty kill numbers. They have the solid defense pairs they need and Primeau, Wallin and Stalberg will be major new players on the unit up front.
Kessel needs to come on strong when he returns. As Burke put it, he isn’t sure that the team has the center that Kessel needs on his roster today, but he couldn’t pass up the opportunity to get the winger first. The immediate plan is to play Kessel with Grabovski or Stajan and see if the chemistry is there. If this fails and if Bozak starts off fast in the AHL look for him to be given the opportunity to see how he fits in with Kessel. My crystal ball shows a unit with Kessel and Stalberg flying on the wings with Bozak being the play making center. With the delayed start to his season and the lack of a true number one center, a 20-25 goal season for Kessel would be what the fans should be looking for.
If all breaks right for the Leafs their point total for the season could hit the mid nineties and land them somewhere in the fifth to eighth place range. At the moment they are still tied for first and all systems are go for a drive to the playoffs.
The biggest need for any playoff team is goaltending. The Leafs need rock solid goaltending this season for the team to contend. The chances are that Toskala is not the player to do this. For the team to succeed they need to have Gustavsson take over the number one job and pardon the pun, have a monster year. The best possible scenario is for Toskala to play well, but for Gustavsson to outshine him as a backup to the point that he takes over the starter’s job by the new year. Ideally, another team loses a starting goalie before the trade deadline and Burke can move Toskala for a pick and a prospect at that time.
Komisarek needs to show that he is fully recovered from the problems that he had last year. If he has, he will provide the solid partner that Kaberle needs and you will see Kaberle come back with a 60 plus point year. If Komisarek shows that he is back to his former self he may well be wearing the C on his chest before the first snow falls.
The number one power play unit should be very strong once Kessel returns. Kaberle and Beauchemin should be a great pairing on the points. Kaberle will quarterback the unit and Beauchemin has the one timer that will remind fans of McCabe. Stalberg has the quickness and size to work the corner but should also set up camp in front of the net where he can tip in shots and battle for rebounds. Kessel will have room to find open ice for his shot.
The bigger concern is the penalty kill and how much ice time it will see. The Leafs need to be tough, but they have to show restraint and can not lead the league in short handed minutes. If the goaltending breaks as we hope, then Wilson and his coaches should have the players now to provide much better penalty kill numbers. They have the solid defense pairs they need and Primeau, Wallin and Stalberg will be major new players on the unit up front.
Kessel needs to come on strong when he returns. As Burke put it, he isn’t sure that the team has the center that Kessel needs on his roster today, but he couldn’t pass up the opportunity to get the winger first. The immediate plan is to play Kessel with Grabovski or Stajan and see if the chemistry is there. If this fails and if Bozak starts off fast in the AHL look for him to be given the opportunity to see how he fits in with Kessel. My crystal ball shows a unit with Kessel and Stalberg flying on the wings with Bozak being the play making center. With the delayed start to his season and the lack of a true number one center, a 20-25 goal season for Kessel would be what the fans should be looking for.
If all breaks right for the Leafs their point total for the season could hit the mid nineties and land them somewhere in the fifth to eighth place range. At the moment they are still tied for first and all systems are go for a drive to the playoffs.
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