Toronto Sports Str8Talk

Second NHL Team in Southern Ontario

2009-11-11T10:15:00.002-05:00

Well the NHL is finally talking about putting a second team in Southern Ontario. Daly made the point that an objection from the Leafs would not stand in the way of such a move and MLSE responded by saying they would not stand in the way of such a move if it was shown to be good for the NHL and MLSE.

Daly also went out of his way to throw cold water on the idea of that team being located in Hamilton. His argument against Hamilton was that Copps Coliseum is not ready NHL ready. That argument is weak since it is the most NHL ready of any arena in the area and the cost to upgrade it to NHL standards is less then the cost to build a new arena.

The real anti-Hamilton stance is based on four points. First, Hamilton is the location that would most interfere with Buffalo’s fan base by drawing fans from the Golden Horseshoe. The second point is that Hamilton is not a known city south of the border and it would be another tough sell in the US. A minor third point is Hamilton’s friendliness with Balsillie and that a move into Copps may well require Balsillie as the owner. The fourth and major point is that Hamilton does nothing to increase revenues for MLSE.

Hamilton is a natural rival to Toronto so an NHL team there will not harm MLSE revenue. That however is not the point. The point is that a Hamilton franchise will do nothing to increase MLSE revenue. A one time territorial payment regardless of size is small potatoes.

What MLSE wants and will work out with the NHL is a strong new revenue stream in return for its support of the second franchise. Some mention a second NHL team playing out of the ACC. The problem with that is that the Leafs, Raptors, and a new NHL team all have overlapping seasons and that would not leave enough dates for other events.

MLSE thinks big and what would make more sense to them is a new development of condos, retail, restaurants, etc. surrounding a second GTA arena where the second NHL team would be the main tenant. That type of development would provide the immediate and long term revenue that MLSE expects and would increase MLSE and freeze out potential competition from another arena in the area.

Leading potential locations for this type of development are Downsview and Vaughan. Neither would be a threat to the Buffalo market and both would accessible to the GTA market. The NHL’s goal will be to maximize the payment for this franchise and the largest bids will come for a second team in the GTA. The second team will also likely be called Toronto since that has some name recognition in the U.S.

None of this is to say that a team in Hamilton or Kitchener/Waterloo could not succeed. The problem with those locations is that they will not maximize the revenue for the NHL, they will not add revenue for MLSE, and they would likely involve Jim Balsillie. Balsillie has burned many bridges with the NHL and it is difficult to imagine that he will be willing to work with MLSE and the governors to find a way into the NHL.

Another advantage to this type of deal is that it would work for a relocation of one of the southern U.S. teams that are currently in trouble. A troubled franchise has to be moved quickly so that local support is not further eroded. In this scenario the ACC could be used as a temporary home for a team while the new arena is being built.

Raps Wrap Pre-Season

2009-10-24T10:10:00.000-04:00

The Raps finished their pre-season with another loss and another game where Triano could not use his regular rotation. Turkoglu suffered a minor ankle sprain which limited him to 14 minutes and Evans is still out with his injury. The overall preseason for the team was pretty dismal, but then again the Leafs had a hot preseason and that did not translate well when the regular games began. The team will also benefit by having almost a week off before the first game.

Despite not having the full team to work with, some of Triano’s rotation is starting to come together. The most interesting aspect is how he plans to use DeRozan. The thought is to let the rookie start and then determine his playing time based on how well he does. Instead of giving him minutes later in each half he will start but will likely not see action as the first half and the game wind down. Initially he may only play 15 minutes a game.

This approach makes sense. It lets DeRozan get playing time with the first unit and allows him to play against the league’s best. It also saves him from having to be on the court at crunch time when a veteran like Wright is more useful. As long as the first unit plays well and keeps the team in the game, this approach will let DeRozan earn more minutes as the season goes on. His confidence should also grow by playing at a less intense time of the game. A very positive early sign is DeRozan’s desire to drive to the basket and ability to draw fouls.

With Evans on the shelf, the first players come off the bench will be Wright, Jack and Johnson. If Johnson can provide efficient energy minutes along with solid defense and rebounding, Nesterovic’s minutes will be limited to games where they need him to bump against some of the bigger centers. Evans will become a fan favorite and his toughness will be missed early. Once he joins the rotation the Raptors will have a nice diverse set of skills to be able to bring into the game depending on who is on the court for the other team.

From the early look of things the team will need Belinelli to provide outside shooting off the bench. The Raptors were terrible from the 3 point line during the preseason and need this to turn around to provide more room for the skilled big men.

The only item we haven’t touched on so far is Chris Bosh and he will be the story for the team this year. Physically he seems to be coming into form and finished with a strong 27 point, 14 rebound game. He realizes that he needs to take his game up a notch this year and I am confident he will start out that way.

If the team plays well and settles into a playoff position record wise they should improve as the season goes on. If on the other hand they start off slow there is a real concern that the team could implode by Christmas. If they are well below .500 after 20 games the Bosh free agency talk will escalate and it will be hard for him, and the team, to focus.

What has to be remembered is that this is largely a new team with a coach that is starting his first full season as an NBA head coach. While I like the pieces Colangelo has put together the team is entering a high risk year that could go either way.

The schedule does not do them any favors. They play 8 of their first 12 games on the road and their first two home games are against eastern conference powers Cleveland and Orlando. A 5-7 start through that stretch would be great and allow them to get on a roll when the schedule becomes easier in December.

Maybe I’m still shell shocked by the start of the Leafs this year, but I see them struggling towards a 40-42 season which should let them sneak into the final playoff spot. Let’s hope that I’m wrong and they push for 5 seed. For that to happen, the big three of Bosh, Bargnani and Turkoglu will have to mesh into a top front court quickly.

Burke Takes Bad Rap For Mortgaging Future

2009-10-20T14:51:00.000-04:00

Toronto is off to a horrid start and things are likely to get worse as they start a five game road trip on the west coast on Saturday. The blogs and radio waves are already filled with people attacking the moves that Burke has made. The most common refrain is that he has mortgaged the future of the team by trading away the team’s top pick the next two years as well as the second rounder in 2010/11.

While I would not have made the Kessel trade since I am not as aggressive as Burke, what I see is Burke fast tracking the team’s youth movement, not abandoning it. During the off season Burke did not just use the draft to pick up youth, he also pushed the Leafs ahead by adding youth in top ranked US college players and by signing Gustavsson from Sweden. Burke is using this approach to supplement the draft and will likely continue to proceed in this manner next year when he is without his top pick.

What Burke is trying to do is accelerate the growth through youth movement by expanding his strategy beyond conventional draft picks. He is willing to fight for top US collegians, top Europeans and by going after young RFA and UFA players.

Kessel is about to turn 22 and is coming off a 36 goal season. He will contribute more to the Leafs this year and next year then the number one pick in next year’s draft. Gustavsson will likely be the starting goaltender for the Leafs and he will likely have more value then the following year’s number one pick. Hanson is likely the equivalent of what the Leafs would hope to get with the number two pick in 2010/11.

While Burke did give up two number one picks and a number two this summer, he picked up Kessel, Gustavsson and Hanson which map to those picks. In addition, Burke also signed Tyler Bozak who should see quite a bit of playing time with the team this season.

The net result is that Burke added four under 25 year old players and has only given up two firsts and a second to achieve this. The top players that he added are more certain to have NHL potential then what may be available in the draft.

From my viewpoint he is not mortgaging the future, but is just fast tracking the addition of youth to the lineup.

NHL's Place in North America Sports

2009-10-16T14:42:00.001-04:00

Headlines today talk about the City of Quebec pushing for a new $400 million hockey arena to lure back NHL hockey. The city has volunteered to put up $50 million and is asking the provincial and federal governments to each contribute $175 million under infrastructure programs. Now let me do some quick calculations here and figure out how much they are expecting from the multi-millionaires that will own the team that plays in the arena. In quick ballpark figures, that number would be zero.

In reading the positioning of their funding request you shake your head when you read that they are requesting the $350 million from the other levels of government under what they term infrastructure payments. Are we to assume that the road, sewage, transit, health and education systems are all up to snuff and do not require any of these funds? Are we to assume that this is the “perfect” time in our economic cycle to ask for this money? Maybe I missed something but I thought that we were in a major economic crisis with unemployment at maximum levels and a deficit that is racing to levels that will result in major inflation even if the current economic crisis is solved. Is this really the time for any rational politician to look for $400 million to fund an arena that will be used by a privately owned hockey team?

This brings me to what else is wrong with this picture. Why is a $400 million hockey arena now considered to be the price of admission the NHL is demanding for a city to qualify for a franchise. It is not enough that a city like Quebec, Hamilton, or Winnipeg may have fans to sell out NHL games? But after meetings with Bettman, it appears that a prerequisite now is that the hosting city find $400 million of taxpayer money to fund an arena that is suitable for the NHL.

Now why does the NHL require a $400 million arena when a 16,000 capacity hockey arena could be built for roughly half that price? The answer of course is luxury boxes. Luxury boxes exist in the NFL, NBA and major league baseball, so the assumption is that of course they must exist for NHL teams. Why? Well, the owners have to find a way to generate the money to fund player salaries that run up to $8 million dollars and pay an average player $2 - $3 million.

Unlike the true major North American sports leagues, the NHL does not have a national television contract in the U.S. to help pay the freight. When the NHL pretends that it is a major league it is putting a financial burden on most cities that they just can not afford. There is only so much money that corporate citizens and fans have to spend. In Canada and some of the major northern US cities there is either enough love for the game, or the city is large enough that it can afford to support an NHL that prices itself as a major league sport. In many US cities this is not the case as we see in Phoenix, Miami, Atlanta, Dallas, Nashville, Tampa, etc.

The NHL sees the abyss that many of their franchises are heading towards in the southern U.S. They are now coming to Canadian cities in the hopes that will find desperate local governments. It is not enough that hard working fans exist in these cities to support the team, but the governments must also cough up $400 million to build the super arena that the NHL demands. Hopefully these cities have the sense to say “No”. The way the league is structured it has priced itself out of any city that does not have a vacant arena lying around, or a government that is willing to sacrifice other priorities for the ego boost of having an NHL team.

If cities refuse to be held for ransom it will not be long before the NHL is faced with two real options that are dictated by the marketplace. One choice will be to contract the league to cities that do consider the NHL to be a major sports league. The other, will be to change their pricing and salary structures to market driven figures. This likely means either the elimination of the salary cap with team salaries being dependant on the money generated by each franchise, or a massive revenue sharing arrangement where the rich franchises share with the poor.

Either way the end result would be that ticket prices and player salaries come down to what the market will truly support. The reality is that in most cities the NHL is B List entertainment and the stars of B List movies do not make what the stars of A List movies make.

NFL Top 10 and Week 6 Picks

2009-10-14T09:18:00.000-04:00

1 - NY Giants 5-0 (Last week 1)
Mercy move by the Giants when they pull Eli to go with Carr in the drubbing of the Raiders. Big game next week when they travel to New Orleans to face the undefeated Saints.

2 - New Orleans 4-0 (Last week 2)
We’ll keep the Saints at number two after the by week. Two weeks off to prepare to host the Giants will help.

3 - Indianapolis 5-0 (Last week 3)
The Titans defense could not slow the Colts as they cruise to an easy 31-9 victory. 309 yards in the air and 3 touchdowns for Peyton.

4 - Minnesota 5-0 (Last week 4)
You can only beat who you are scheduled to play. An easy win on the road over the Rams this week, but a big challenge coming up when they host the Ravens.

5 - Denver 5-0 (Last week 8)
All they do is keep winning. A very impressive come from behind overtime victory against the Patriots including a 95 yard fourth quarter drive by Orton who had 330 yards and 2 touchdown passes.

6 - Philadelphia 3-1 (Last week unranked)
McNabb returns from his injury with 3 TD passes and the Eagles from their by week cruising to a solid 33-14 win over the Bucs.

7 - New England 3-2 (Last week 5)
The Patriots played a solid game but let the Broncos fight back to tie the game late and then lose in overtime.

8 - Atlanta 3-1 (Last week unranked)
No problem for the Falcons as they shred the Niners defense. Ryan passed for 329 yards and 2 touchdowns while Turner had 97 yards and 3 touchdowns rushing.

9 - Cincinnati 4-1 (Last week unranked)
Another surprise team off to a good start. A road win against the Ravens last week gives them the lead in the division.

10 - NY Jets 3-2 (Last week 6)
Very unlike the Jets to give up 21 points in the fourth quarter. After two tough losses on the road hosting the Bills at home next week should be the perfect tonic.

Top Picks Week 6 (Last week 0-3, Season 6-9)

Chicago plus 3 ½ at Atlanta. This should be a tough game decided by a touchdown either way so I’m taking the Bears plus the points.

Houston plus 6 at Cincinnati. Maybe I’m late believing in the Bengals but I’m taking the Texans and the points in what I think could be an outright win.

NY Giants plus 3 at New Orleans. The big game of the week with two undefeated teams. I’m not ready to go against the consistency of the Giants so I’m taking them and the points.

Maybe A Way Out For Blake

2009-10-13T10:00:00.001-04:00

There is lots of talk about burying Blake in the minors but that is easier said then done. The problem isn’t just one of MLSE agreeing to swallow Blake’s contract while he plays for the Marlies. The bigger problem is what Blake’s attitude will be down in the minors and how that will effect the players there. Burying a player like Blake also creates a bad impression for the team among NHL agents.

An out of the box thought is trying to move Blake for a worse contract that you are willing to eat. The name that comes to mind is Rick DiPietro. When healthy he is an outstanding goalie. The question is whether he will ever be healthy again. The Islanders signed him to a crazy long term deal that still has over ten years to run at $4.5 million per season and would love to get out from under that commitment.

At present DiPietro is costing the team salary but not cap space since he is on injured reserve. The Islanders do not need the cap relief and they certainly don’t want to throw $4.5 million per year down the drain on a player that is not contributing. For them, Blake’s contract at a $4 million cap hit, but only $3 million in actual salary for the next two years, would look great compared to DiPietro’s.

The question here is; would the Leafs be willing to take DiPietro’s contract off the Islanders hands? If they are serious about being willing to eat a bad contract then maybe Toronto is willing to pick up his contract, pay his salary, and get cap relief if he can not return.

Because of the contracts, a straight Blake for DiPietro is stacked in the Islanders favor so this should allow Burke to expand the deal. The player that I’d be interested in picking up from the Islanders is Josh Bailey. Bailey has slipped to number three at center on the Islanders depth chart, but at 19 he still has the potential to be a number one center. Going the Islanders way would be either Stajan or Grabovski.

Why would the Islanders do this? They immediately pick up production by adding Blake and either Stajan or Grabovski while only losing their number three center. More importantly they get out from under the remaining salary commitment to DiPietro who may never be able to resume his career as a full time number one goalie.

The Leafs pick up the $4.5 million salary commitment but this will only count against their cap if DiPietro is healthy enough to resume his career as a number one goalie. That is highly unlikely and if it were to occur, it is not a bad problem to have. They also pick up a top prospect that is ready to play in the NHL today and will be a legitimate top two line center and possibly the partner for Phil Kessel.

Is this deal sellable to either team? Likely not, but it is the type of out of the box thinking that Burke will have to consider to move the team forward.

Leafs After Three Games

2009-10-07T12:38:00.000-04:00

After an exciting pre-season the regular season has gotten off to a bumpy start for the Leafs. All three games have resulted in losses, but the interesting thing is that each game was different. That could show that the team has more problems with different deficiencies being exposed each time, or it could show that the team has the ability to correct the deficiencies and just needs to find a way to put it all together.

The biggest concern so far is the defense. Burke invested heavily in the off season with the acquisitions of Komisarek and Beauchemin. Together with Kaberle and Schenn they were supposed to be the big four and provide 45-50 minutes of solid defense each game. Komisarek got off to a rough start against Montreal but we can write that one off to over exuberance against his former team. Since then he has steadied his play and it looks like he and Kaberle could be a strong number one pairing with Kaberle leading the rushes.

The real disappointment has been the number two pair. Beauchemin has gotten off to a really bad start and does not look like a top four defender on a contenting team. Schenn has had an equally shaky start to the year and there is no chemistry between the two. It may be time for the Leafs to look at dropping Schenn back to the third pairing for a while and move a Finger or Van Ryn (when he is healthy) into the second pair to work with Beauchemin. The problems here are likely temporary. It is not unusual for a 19 year old defenseman to struggle in his second year and Beauchemin is too solid of a veteran not to find his game. The only real question is whether the two of them will make the solid pairing that was forecast as the season moves on.

Toskala’s shaky start gave the team an early opportunity to give Gustavsson his first start. So far Gustavsson has done absolutely nothing to disappoint or show that he will not be the number one goalie at season’s end. Granted he has only played five periods of regular season NHL action, but he shows the confidence, agility, positioning and rebound control that you need in your number one goaltender. The Leafs will likely delay such a proclamation for as long as possible since they need to help Toskala rediscover his game if only for the sake of him providing some value for him at the trade deadline.

In Toskala’s defense fans should remember that he is trying to modify his style under the tutelage of Allaire and the team did not play solid defense in front of him. The reality however is that at 32, and in the last year of his $4 million contract there is no future here for Toskala. The team would be just as well served with a 29 year old MacDonald earning under $1 million serving as back up.

The forward units are a bigger concern for the team. Stempniak, Mitchell, Stalberg and Stajan have played well so far. Grabovski shows flashes of speed and skill, but his inability to win face offs against top centers wastes half of each shift for his line since they need to spend that time getting the puck back. Ponikarovsky is his old steady self but is showing that he will not be on the team next year. The Leafs sorely need to get Kessel’s finishing touch into the lineup and it remains a question as to whether he will play with Stajan or Grabovski, or will Bozak will be in the lineup by that time.

The bottom six needs to be settled as well but we can expect quite a bit of shuffling here throughout the season. Rosehill and Orr can not play on the same line but both may find a place in the regular lineup. To compete, the Leafs need to roll four lines since they must rely on energy and fore checking for a full sixty minutes.

Three games in it is too early to panic but the pieces have to come together quickly. With the schedule for the balance of the month being very difficult this will not be easy but the Leafs can not afford to fall too far back of a playoff position.

NFL Top 10 and Week 5 Picks

2009-10-06T08:40:00.002-04:00

1 - NY Giants 4-0 (Last week 1)
The Giants ease to another workman like road victory against the Chiefs. A solid day for Eli with 292 yards and 3 TD passes.

2 - New Orleans 4-0 (Last week 3)
A two touchdown home win against the Jets where the defense held Mark Sanchez to 138 yards through the air. A bye next week leading up to the big game in two weeks when they host the Giants.

3 - Indianapolis 4-0 (Last week 5)
Peyton continues to dominate with 353 yards in the air in a very easy road victory against the Seahawks. So far they haven't missed a beat with the retirement of Dungy.

4 - Minnesota 4-0 (Last week 6)
The Vikings march on and Brett comes through with the win against his former team the Packers. Some concerns on defense where they gave up 384 yards through the air.

5 - New England 3-1 (Last week 7)
Patriots are rounding into form with a solid home win against the Ravens. Next week we get a reality check as they travel to Denver to play the surprising and undefeated Broncos.

6 - NY Jets 3-1 (Last week 2)
A loss at the Saints shouldn’t knock you down too much, but the offense was shut down on all fronts. Next week is important since a team led by a rookie QB needs to bounce back quickly.

7 - Baltimore 3-1 (Last week 4)
Ravens did not look all that bad on the road against in New England. The Patriots managed to control the game with ball control offense giving them a 10 minute edge in possession.

8 - Denver 4-0 (Last week unrated)
The Broncos finally crack the top 10 with a home win against the Cowboys. I’m not showing much respect for them yet, but next week’s game against the Patriots could change that, or knock them back out of the top 10.

9 - San Francisco 3-1 (Last week 10)
Frank Gore is still out with the ankle injury and Hill was held to 152 yards in the air. A problem? Nope. The Niners still cruise to a 35-0 win over the sad sack Rams at home.

10 - Chicago 3-1 (Last week 9)
We’ll drop them one spot due to a lack luster first half where they gave up three touchdowns to the Lions. They recovered nicely in the second half to win by 24.

Top Picks Week 5 (Last week 0-3, Season 6-6)

Ouch. A painful shutout last week dropping us back to .500 for the season.

New England minus 3 at Denver. Well I’m still not buying into Denver being a solid team. I’ll take the Patriots and give up 3 points on the road.

Houston plus 5 ½ at Arizona. I see both these teams as about even so I’m going to take 5 ½ points and go with the Texans on a short road trip.

NY Jets minus 1 ½ at Miami. Miami looked good against the Bills but this is an important in division bounce back game for the Jets so I’ll give up the 1 ½ points.

Jays In Holding Pattern

2009-10-05T10:22:00.001-04:00

What I would love to do this morning is look ahead to the Jays off season and play the game of trying to figure out what they will do to improve the team for next year. The problem is we really don’t know what the goal of the team will be for 2010 or what the budget will be.

The firing of JP over the weekend was expected. His credibility was spent with the fans and media and Rogers had no choice but to replace him. Overall I don’t think that JP did a terrible job. Competing with the Yankees and Red Sox is a no win situation and the Jays did as well as could be expected. The unbalanced schedule forces them to play 26 games with the Yankees and Red Sox each season. If the Jays were in the Central division they would have played these teams half as much and may well have been in a playoff race as often as not. JP also leaves the team with young talent that is already starting to mature.

For the moment, the GM of the team is Alex Anthopoulos but even he does not know if his position is permanent. The Jays have been in the process of hiring a new president and word now is that this will take place by the end of October. Once a new president is in place the GM position will be reassessed. Anthopoulos states that he has the authority to make player and managerial moves but do not expect anything significant to take place until the president’s position is finalized and a direction is set for 2010.

My guess is that Anthopoulos’ future lies with the future of Beeston. If Beeston stays highly involved with the Jays going forward then Anthopoulos may well get the chance to be the permanent GM. If a new president takes over all baseball operations then look for a proven GM to be put in place. Over the past few years Anthopoulos has made friends with the Toronto media and they will give him a chance to succeed. Whether the fans buy into this is less certain.

The big question regarding the future is whether the team will increase of decrease the player budget. While some in the media forecast a budget increase the signals do not look that way. The Jays recently laid off much of their marketing staff and that may well foreshadow budgetary cuts on the field as well.

The pressing matter player wise is Roy Halladay. Halladay wants to see that the Jays are committed to spending the money necessary to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox next year or he will not consider re-signing. The chances of this happening are remote. The likelihood is that Halladay will be moved this off season. Whether the Jays will be able to get more for him then they could have received at the trade deadline is an unknown. For future fan relations it may have been best to have let JP make the Halladay trade a couple of months ago instead of saddling the new GM with this responsibility and fan backlash.

On the field the team has promise. Hill and Lind had great years and if Snyder can take his game to the major league level the Jays have a strong young offensive core. Even without Halladay, the starting staff has potential with kids like Romero, Rzepcynski and Richmond, but they will need some veteran leadership. The bullpen does not have a true closer but has quality depth with Frasor, Camp, Accardo, Downs and League. The team will try to move Overbay over the winter and it is uncertain whether Scutero or Barajas will be back.

How the team fills the holes or uses the money available if Halladay and Overbay leave is impossible to forecast until Rogers decides on the budget and direction of the ream. For now any speculation would just be a guess. All we can do is hope that once a permanent president is announced the direction will be made clear as well. Hopefully this happens while fan interest in the team can be rekindled.

Jays Player Revolt

2009-10-02T10:15:00.001-04:00

The news is spreading this morning that the Jays players have turned on Cito and do not want him back next year. Normally I support management and am not in favor of the inmates running the asylum. However in this case I am not surprised at the feelings of the players and do think that its time for Cito to slip back into retirement.

The word is that the players find that Cito does not communicate and is constantly negative. What I have seen in this reincarnation of Cito is that his calm and experienced manner has tipped to the point of being arrogance. He seems to take pride in not showing emotion to the point that he looks like wins or losses have no effect on him. When I listen to him speak I see a man who’s pride does not let him admit that any problem with the Jays may be his fault. The blame from him always seems to fall on the players and that they are not adopting his plan.

When you manage, a big part of the job is teaching and communicating. Even if the lesson that you are teaching is correct, there is a problem if your students are not learning. A good teacher should not simply shrug his shoulders and blame the students for not learning. A good teacher should realize that learning is a two way street and it is also the teacher’s job to figure out a way to get through to his students. If the students are not learning, you have to find a new way to teach.

Cito appears to be lost in the past. When he was rehired last year he did not look to find the best new coaches. Instead he went back to his personal comfort zone and hired the coaches that were with him in the Jays glory years over fifteen years ago. These coaches had not gone on to greatness in the intervening years, but had largely been forgotten by baseball. They, like Cito, had chosen not to grow with the game but remained steadfast in their beliefs that their old ways are the best ways. Baseball is a grand old game, but time and people do move on and must continue to grow and learn.

You would think that Cito’s quiet confidence would be appreciated by veteran players. Maybe it can be accepted by a veteran team that is winning and has veteran leaders. But today that attitude is seen as one of detachment and arrogance. The manager does not seem to be part of the team and the manager does not seem willing to take any responsibility for the failures of the team.

While the Jays were spiraling down after their hot start much heat was put on the players and JP. When Cito was asked about his future he seemed to just assume that none of this was his fault, or even concern, and he mused on about his plans to manage in 2010 and then retire and spend more time with his grand children. His whole attitude was that his methods were beyond question and it would solely be his decision when he would choose to step aside.

Maybe it is Cito’s close relationship with Beeston that gives him this feeling of security. However, when he spoke he did not seem like a manager that was looking for ways to turn his team around. He was just going to carry on doing what he had always done until he did not feel like doing it any more. That attitude does not inspire the group of men that you are leading.

It is interesting that Cito used to be considered a players’ manager. Maybe in his day players wanted a manager that let them be. Today it appears that players want a manager that will lead them and be part of the team.

I believe that Cito’s best days are in his past and this off season it is time to go with a new and more aggressive approach to try and win games and win back fans.

Leaf Dreams Before Game One

2009-10-01T08:58:00.000-04:00

Before the first puck is dropped all teams are in a tie for first. Now is the time to dream a little as a fan so let me take a look into my blue and white crystal ball and see what surprises I would love to see for the Leafs as the year unfolds.

The biggest need for any playoff team is goaltending. The Leafs need rock solid goaltending this season for the team to contend. The chances are that Toskala is not the player to do this. For the team to succeed they need to have Gustavsson take over the number one job and pardon the pun, have a monster year. The best possible scenario is for Toskala to play well, but for Gustavsson to outshine him as a backup to the point that he takes over the starter’s job by the new year. Ideally, another team loses a starting goalie before the trade deadline and Burke can move Toskala for a pick and a prospect at that time.

Komisarek needs to show that he is fully recovered from the problems that he had last year. If he has, he will provide the solid partner that Kaberle needs and you will see Kaberle come back with a 60 plus point year. If Komisarek shows that he is back to his former self he may well be wearing the C on his chest before the first snow falls.

The number one power play unit should be very strong once Kessel returns. Kaberle and Beauchemin should be a great pairing on the points. Kaberle will quarterback the unit and Beauchemin has the one timer that will remind fans of McCabe. Stalberg has the quickness and size to work the corner but should also set up camp in front of the net where he can tip in shots and battle for rebounds. Kessel will have room to find open ice for his shot.

The bigger concern is the penalty kill and how much ice time it will see. The Leafs need to be tough, but they have to show restraint and can not lead the league in short handed minutes. If the goaltending breaks as we hope, then Wilson and his coaches should have the players now to provide much better penalty kill numbers. They have the solid defense pairs they need and Primeau, Wallin and Stalberg will be major new players on the unit up front.

Kessel needs to come on strong when he returns. As Burke put it, he isn’t sure that the team has the center that Kessel needs on his roster today, but he couldn’t pass up the opportunity to get the winger first. The immediate plan is to play Kessel with Grabovski or Stajan and see if the chemistry is there. If this fails and if Bozak starts off fast in the AHL look for him to be given the opportunity to see how he fits in with Kessel. My crystal ball shows a unit with Kessel and Stalberg flying on the wings with Bozak being the play making center. With the delayed start to his season and the lack of a true number one center, a 20-25 goal season for Kessel would be what the fans should be looking for.

If all breaks right for the Leafs their point total for the season could hit the mid nineties and land them somewhere in the fifth to eighth place range. At the moment they are still tied for first and all systems are go for a drive to the playoffs.

Raptor Camp Preview

2009-09-29T06:54:00.002-04:00

The Raptors camp begins this week and this year is a pivotal one for the franchise. If everything comes together the team will make the playoffs, win a round or two, re-sign Bosh after the season and be a contender for years to come with Triano as coach. If the team starts off slow, the season could quickly become a disaster, the Bosh speculation will be a daily distraction with him leaving the team via trade or free agency, Triano’s run as coach will be short lived and next summer will be another massive rebuild.

To get ready for the season Colangelo performed a major makeover. Only three significant players are left from last year’s team. The job of the coaches during camp is critical and not easy. They have to construct a Raptor team that is tougher than any in recent memory. The team has to play defense every night, hit the boards and reduce uncontested shots and easy drives to the basket by the opposition. The team is eleven deep with players that are worthy of being in the rotation, but that number will have to be whittled down to a tighter rotation.

The biggest wildcard for the team is the first round pick DeMar DeRozan. For the team to reach its potential DeRozan should be the starting shooting guard. He adds athleticism that the team sorely needs at the wing positions. Even if his shooting touch does not develop in year one his physical skills should let him guard opposition guards straight up and he has the quickness to drive to the basket. The team will give him every chance to earn a starting job and he may even be able to guard some small forwards late in games. Should DeRozan not be ready to start Belinelli can, but he would be better coming off the bench and providing instant offense as part of the second unit.

Calderon appears to have recovered from the injuries that slowed him down last year and should be able to resume the play that made him a top point guard the previous season. Jack provides a very capable back up at the point and can fill in as a starter in the event of injury given Calderon time to fully recover. Calderon and Jack will also see court time together on occasion when the Raptors want to go small.

Up front the starters are Bosh, Bargnani and Turkoglu. If Bargnani can pick up where he left off last year he will provide more then most fans expect. Together, the three will provide defensive match up problems for the opposition but the question will be their rebounding and defense.

The conventional wisdom is that Evans and Nesterovic will be the main two bigs off the bench. Both are solid veterans, eat space, and Evans will add a touch of toughness that the fans have not seen since the Oakley days. Antoine Wright may be a defensive specialist late in games, but the surprise here could be Amir Johnson. Not much is expected of Johnson, but if the Raptors can bring out some of the potential that made him an NBA draft choice at 18 he could be a high energy player to play defense and pound the glass off the bench. Johnson may well disappear and fall out of the NBA but he could prove to be a diamond in the rough that Triano and Iavaroni may be able to reclaim.

This preseason most eyes will be watching Turkoglu to see how he fits and Bosh to see if he will emerge as a true superstar that can carry a team on his shoulders. While these will be the high profile stories of camp it will also be fascinating to see how ready DeRozan is, if Bargnani can pick up from where he left off last season, and how the rest of the rotation shapes up.

This is a big year for the Raptors and with the changes Colangelo made this off season there are no shortage of stories to follow.

NFL Top 10 and Week 4 Top Picks

2009-09-28T11:27:00.000-04:00

1 - NY Giants 3-0 (Last week 1)
Dominating defense by the Giants in a 24-0 win on the road against the Bucs and that was without two of their defensive stalwarts.

2 - NY Jets 3-0 (Last week 2)
A bigger test for the Jets with Tennessee visiting last week. The offense went into a funk for the middle part of the game but did enough to stay undefeated.

3 - New Orleans 3-0 (Last week 5)
A solid road win that was never really in doubt against a Bills team that is playing good football. A challenge next week when they host the Jets.

4 - Baltimore 3-0 (Last week 6)
Sure they were only hosting the Browns, but a dominating 34-3 serves as a warm up for next weekends trip to Foxborough.

5 - Indianapolis 3-0 (Last week 7)
Another easy win, but an impressive air show against the Cardinals on the road. 379 yards and 4 TD passes for Peyton, but they did allow 332 yards passing.

6 - Minnesota 3-0 (Last week 3)
A bit of a tumble down the rankings despite the win against a tough 49ers team. Does Favre have another miracle up his sleeve for next week when the Packers come to visit?

7 - New England 2-1 (Last week 8)
The Patriots may be rounding into form with their home win against the Falcons. Next week is the test against the Ravens.

8 - Philadelphia 2-1 (Last week unranked)
The Eagles have not missed a beat with Kolb at the helm filling in for the injured McNabb. Another 300+ yard passing day backed up by their top 5 defense.

9 - Chicago 2-1 (Last week 9)
A solid win on the coast at Seattle keeps them in the top 10 and ahead of the Packers. Not sure how they’ll do when the schedule starts to toughen up.

10 - San Francisco 2-1 (Last week 10)
A heartbreaking lost on the last second miracle by Favre. The loss of Gore will hurt but they still should be able to get past the Rams with the tough brand of ball they are playing under Singletary.

Top Picks for Week 4 (Last week 2-1, Season 6-3)

Take Green Bay and 3 ½ points at Minnesota. I see this game staying within a field goal so I’m jumping on the early line to take the Pack against Favre.

Take Dallas and give the 2 ½ points on the road in Denver. The Broncos are 3-0 but I’m looking for that to end against a Dallas team that needs to keep pace with the Giants and Eagles.

Take San Diego and 6 points at Pittsburgh. Hard to bet the Charges at Pittsburgh, but so far the Steelers have done nothing to impress and 6 points are too hard to reset with Rivers playing great early in the season.

NHL East Projections

2009-09-25T09:39:00.001-04:00

With less then a week to go until the puck drops its time to make our projections for the coming season. I break the conference into four teams with the Bruins and Penguins as the class of the East. Both have solid teams with no apparent weaknesses and solid goaltending. Not much to pick between the two but I’m ranking the Bruins first on the basis of superior defense, team toughness and coaching with the Penguins a very close second.

The next pack of four teams should all be locks for the playoffs but each has a nagging question or two. The Capitals have the most dominant player in hockey in Ovechkin and his hunger alone should carry the team to third place. The questions here for me are team depth and unproven goaltending where Varlamov only had six NHL games under his belt before his playoff run. The Flyers could challenge for the top spot in the east with Pronger solidifying the defense and a solid top two lines lead by Richards and Carter. This team will be as tough as any to play, but the gamble as always with the Flyers is in goal. Emery is their wildcard and the reason I am picking the team to finish fourth.

Carolina and Jersey had a great playoff series this past spring and will battle all year in the standings. I’m giving the edge to the Hurricanes for fifth with the Devils in sixth. There isn’t much to pick between these two team first clubs, but I see the Devils on a bit of a slide despite Lemaire coming back to coach. The Hurricanes came on strong with the switch to Maurice behind the bench and I see their energy and no name approach being enough to hold off the Devils.

The battle for the last two playoff spots is between five teams and may well go down to the last week of the season. The Sabres are my surprise pick for seventh on the strength of Ryan Miller and a team that is improving from within. The Sabres made the least number of changes and would have been a playoff team last year without Miller’s injury. A homer call here maybe, but I’m calling the Leafs for eighth. They now have the deepest top four defense in the conference and will rely on that strength to improve the league worst goals against average. To make the playoffs, Toskala must rebound and Gustavsson may have to be ready to assume more of the workload as the season moves on. Another advantage often overlooked is Wilson being a superior coach to those teams that I’m calling to miss the playoffs.

The next two are a toss up, but I see the Senators squeezing into ninth with the Canadiens for tenth. The additions of Michalek, Kovalev and Cheechoo will outweigh the loss of Heatley. The weakness of the team is defense and Murray did nothing to address that need while focusing on the Heatley mess. That should keep the Sens out of the playoffs, but if Leclaire is healthy he should be the long awaited answer in goal. The Canadiens have a new coach and gutted the nucleus of their team. There are just too many changes and questions on this team to call them for a playoff spot. Neither Gomez nor Gionta have previously shown that they can lead a team and Price has to show that he has regained his confidence. The Rangers are in the group that can challenge for a playoff spot but I’m calling them for eleventh. Yes they have Lundqvist in net, but they also have Avery as the number one left winger on the depth chart and Graborik has missed big parts of the last two seasons with injuries. I’m calling for them to tumble out of the playoffs.

The Panthers are a nice team with improving youth that could challenge if all breaks their way, but I look for the loss of Bouwmeester to push them back to twelfth. The team’s future is also a distraction as they go without a permanent GM. The Lighting are improving but have a long way to go, so a solid thirteenth is their likely spot. Stamkos will continue to improve and should benefit from Tanguay on his wing. The addition of Ohlund will be great for Hedman and look for this team to make strides next year if they are financially stable.

Kovalchuk has not signed for next year, Lehtonen is coming off back surgery and Antropov was signed to a 4 year $4 million contract. Things do not look good for the Thrashers who should finish second last in the conference and may have to entertain trade offers for Kovalchuk if it becomes clear that they will not be able to resign him. Too many questions for the Islanders to be anything but the pick for last. Tavares will be asked to carry much of the weight on his shoulders and the expectations of him being the next one might be way too high.

Early Leaf Decisions

2009-09-24T10:06:00.000-04:00

The most positive development from this pre-season has been seeing the young players that are ready for a spot on the Leaf roster. Coach Wilson put it very well when he said that many of these players have earned a job on the Leafs with their play during camp, but they had not stolen a job. This leaves Burke with some work to do this season to see if he can obtain value for some of the veterans that will be pushed aside by next season. This task is made more difficult during a season where the Leafs goal is to battle for a playoff position. Finishing lower in the standings will be especially difficult to stomach for Burke since he traded away next year’s number one pick in the draft for Kessel.

The excess on defense is the easiest piece of the puzzle. The top two pairings are a lock for the next two years so a proven top four defender like Van Ryn is a luxury they do not need. Van Ryn is in the final year of his contract and will not be on the Leafs next season. If he can show that he is healthy, he will be a commodity that is attractive to a western conference playoff contender that suffers an injury. White can also help a playoff contender needing offense from the back end. With the emergence of Gunnarsson, White will likely not be retained when he becomes an RFA at the end of the season. If Burke can move these two, the third pairing and back up will be handled by Finger, Exelby, Frogen and Gunnarsson. The salary anchor there is Finger earning $3.5 million for three more years and that is a salary that Burke would love to dump.

Up front you have the three college kids and Rosehill ready for Leaf jobs now, with Kadri a year away. The difficulty here is determining who on the current roster will be a part of a winning team going forward.

The right side may be easiest to project with Kessel, Hanson and Orr being three of the four long term. Hanson could play on the second or third line depending on whether the Leafs keep Hagman as a solid third line player, or if Kulemin shows that he can be a skilled number two winger. Stempniak does not fit long term but the only choice may be to let him play out the final year of his contract. Even without Hanson a log jam occurs when Kessel is ready that could force a trade or send Kulemin to the Marlies.

Stajan and Ponikarovsky look to be entering Antropov type years. Both are useful, but neither are top six forwards for a contending team. If the Leafs were not shooting for the playoffs both would likely be moved at the trade deadline for second round picks since they will be UFA’s next year. One or both could still be moved if Bozak and Stalberg show they are ready within the first few months of the season. Though signed to a new contract, Grabovski is also not untouchable though a trade involving him may be a multi player deal for a top center on a non contending team.

Tlusty is at the crossroads this year. Are the Leafs ready to give up on the former number one pick who is still only 21? Does he deserve a spot on the Leafs ahead of Stalberg? There does not seem to be much to be gained by him spending another year with the Marlies so look for these questions to be answered fairly soon.

Primeau, Mayers and Wallin are useful in the bottom six. They are low maintenance players that can even sit in the press box and wait for spot duty. None may be on the team next year, but each is a reasonable piece at around $1 million.

Burke put himself into a tougher position when he traded his two number ones for Kessel. Trades now are not only for long term growth, but must also not detract from the goal of the playoffs this season.

Kadri Quandary

2009-09-23T17:05:00.000-04:00

The play of Nazem Kadri has the Leaf fans excited with hopes that he may be the missing number one center for Phil Kessel. Expectations increased last night when he roofed the tying goal with the Leafs net empty and then scored a beautiful shootout goal which proved to be the game winner. He shows great composure, can skate, handle the puck, make the imaginative pass and has the shot of a goal scorer.

What Kadri reminds me of right now is that great new bike that you were waiting for and finally received on Christmas morning. The bike is shiny and new and it is what you’ve been waiting for. You picture yourself riding the bike all summer. You are tempted to take the bike out right away and take it for a spin even though there is snow on the ground. Your parents may let you sit on it in the rec room right away, but they are not going to let you take it outside and risk damaging the gift before the summer has even begun.

That is what it is like with Nazem Kadri. So far he has showed that he may be exactly what the team needs. But for now, the best place for him to show that promise is training camp and the exhibition season. Kadri will be a Leaf for years to come and he may well one day be the center for Kessel. The reality however is that he is still 18 years old and is less than 180 pounds. There is no reason to risk his long term development by exposing him to the rigors of regular season NHL play where he will be a target and be playing against men weighing 30 pounds more.

The reality also is that right now he is not a better hockey player then Grabovski, Stajan or Mitchell. He also is not as far advanced as Tyler Bozak at this point in his career. Kadri will likely be a center for the top two lines, but right now he is at best fourth on the list of candidates for that role with the Leafs. To showcase his skills he needs to play with skilled players. It would be a waste of his skill and development to find minutes for him on the fourth line.

Despite the temptation to see how he would do in the NHL, the best thing for Kadri is to have a great year in junior hockey where he is the star of a franchise. That will give him a confidence and winning attitude that he will be able to bring to the Leafs in a year or two. He should also have the chance to play a significant role with Canada’s team at the world juniors and work on building his strength. These experiences build character and are invaluable to a true blue chip prospect. They greatly outweigh the benefit of playing a third or fourth line role against NHL grinders on a team scraping to make the playoffs.

The other complication for Toronto is that they have a depth of NHL players up front that are on guaranteed contracts. Many of them are on the final year of their contracts and will not be part of the team next year, but you can’t just make them disappear. Instead, as injuries occur and as Burke finds an opportunity to trade some for futures their positions will be filled by Bozak, Stalberg, Hanson, Rosehill and eventually Kadri.

Maybe a spot will be found for Bozak or Stalberg at the start of the season, but it is more likely that their opportunities will occur during the year. The first 15 games of the season will let Burke evaluate his team and other managers to do the same. At that point Kessel will be ready for action and that might be a time for Burke to make some moves to open a few additional spots.

So far Kadri looks like a great number seven pick and shows nothing but promise. I don’t see Burke taking the gamble and rushing him ahead of schedule.

NFL Top 10 and Top 3 Picks for Week 3

2009-09-22T14:49:00.000-04:00

1 - NY Giants 2-0 (Last week 3)
A solid win on the road spoiling Jerry Jones big unveiling was fun to see. The defense did a great job keeping Romo to 127 yards passing. Defense should be stronger as they get health.

2 - NY Jets 2-0 (Last week 6)
This may be temporary, but two very strong wins in a row for the Jets to start the season. Sanchez has played solid as a rookie and the Ryan defense is everything you hoped that it would be.

3 - Minnesota 2-0 (Last week 8)
Another slow start for the Vikings but Favre continues to play a control game. The defense was strong again though they only had to contain the Lions.

4 - Pittsburgh 1-1 (Last week 2)
The Steelers were unable to get a running game going allowing the Bears to focus on Roethlisberger. A late loss on the road doesn’t drop them down too much.

5 - New Orleans 2-0 (Last week unranked)
Saints offence and Drew Brees carry the day with 48 points on the road against the Eagles defense. The concern is that they gave up 391 yards to Kolb filling in for McNabb.

6 - Baltimore 2 - 0 (Last week unranked)
A good win on the road in San Diego was saved by a last minute defensive play by Ray Lewis. Maybe they should be ranked higher and look for them to continue winning as they travel to Cleveland next week.

7 - Indianapolis 2-0 (Last week 9)
Hard to win usually when you only have the ball for a quarter of the game, but a win on the road is always a good thing. Vintage Peyton Manning.

8 - New England 1-1 (Last week 1)
Two lack luster performances in a row. Has Brady lost his magic? Is Belichik finally running out of horses? A test next week when the host the rising Falcons.

9 - Chicago 1-1 (Last week unranked)
Yes they beat Pittsburgh and yes I’m ranking them lower then the Steelers. The lack of a running game worries me and it took a fourth quarter rally to get this win.

10 - San Francisco 2-0 (Last week unranked)
Two strong wins to start the season and a second week of dominating defense. Their first real test of the season is next week when they travel to Minnesota in a battle of unbeaten teams.

Top 3 Picks for Week 3 (Last week 2-1, Season 4-2)

Jets minus 2 ½ at home against Tennessee. Maybe I’m buying into the Jets too early, but with only 16 points against in two games I’ll put my money on their defense at home.

Green Bay minus 6 ½ at St. Louis. Green Bay has yet to roll, but this should be the week when they travel to play a very weak Rams team.

Pittsburgh minus 4 at Cincinnati. The Steelers are already one game behind the Ravens so look at them to make a statement with a division game against the Bengals.

Looking In the Leafs Cupboard

2009-09-21T09:57:00.002-04:00

With the Kessel trade done, some of the Leaf knockers can’t resist chanting that this is the same old Leaf organization. Trading away picks for a short term fix thus mortgaging the future is the same old refrain. So, let’s have a look and see how the team projects over the next few seasons at each position.

Right wing seems to be set for years to come with an internal succession plan in place. Kessel and Kulemin are two skill players who will be 22 and 23 at the end of the season and likely mainstays on the top two lines. Colton Orr is set on the fourth line as the main enforcer and can take regular shifts without hurting you. Stempniak’s $2.5 million cap hit expires at the end of this year and Christian Hanson is ready to step in for him on either the second or third line. Further out is Mikhail Stefanovich who had 49 goals in 56 games last year in the QMJHL and is still only 18.

On the left side Blake likely has three more years with the team due to his contract. While the $4 million cap hit hurts, he still has speed and can score giving him some value if the Leafs are a playoff team. Ponikarovsky is in the last year of his contract and will likely be replaced by the cheaper, younger and faster Stalberg on one of the top two lines by the start of next season. Hagman can step into a top two line role when needed, but he is more likely a fixture on a solid third line. Rosehill could crack the team on the fourth line this year with his solid camp, but will most likely claim that spot next year. Robert Slaney is a year or two away, but projects to be a solid second or third line player. For this year Wallin, Primeau and Tlusty all can see time on the left. They are all on the last year of their contracts and Tlusty may have some trade value if the Leafs decide his future is elsewhere.

Center is a concern with the biggest whole for this year being the lack of a true top line center to play with Kessel. Grabovski will fill the top line role by default and will likely be followed by Stajan and Mitchell on the second and third lines. The immediate wild card here is Bozak who could start the season with the big club but will more likely get a couple of months seasoning with the Marlies. The fourth line will be centered by Wallin or Primeau. Botha are competent and Primeau will bolster the PK. Kadri looks to have the talent to be a top line center, but is one or two years away from earning that spot. This could be the spot for a free agent or trade by Burke, though Bozak, Kadri and Mitchell look like a very solid group of young centers two years out. Grabovski and Stajan could be assets the Leafs are willing to move here.

On defense the top two pairings are set with Beauchemin, Schenn, Kaberle and Komisarek. The strength of these pairings will likely leave only twelve minutes of ice time for the third pair. The excess depth is there for this year with Gunnarsson already ready to assume one of the spots when needed. At 18 Jesse Blacker will play another year with Windsor and be ready for the team in two years. Burke has an excess of defenders that he will try and move to restock some draft choices and possibly use in a package deal with Stajan and or Tlusty. If the Kaberle / Komisarek pairing jells look for Burke’s focus to turn to signing Kaberle to an extension instead of trading him. Kaberle and Beauchemin already appear to be solid as the top point pairing on the power play with Beauchemin taking over McCabe’s role in that spot.

Goaltending is an unknown long term until we see Gustavsson play. Ideally he becomes the number one goalie next year and Toskala’s expiring $4 million cap number can be used towards a proven top center. Reimer may be a nice surprise for the future with a full season in the minors and the chance to work with Allaire. If Gustavsson becomes the number one goalie, then I would like to see the Leafs go with an experienced backup like MacDonald for a couple of years

To me, the future looks pretty bright for the Leafs and the cupboard is anything but bare.

Two Too Much For Kessel?

2009-09-19T09:43:00.000-04:00

As the Kessel pursuit wound on my position was that two first round picks was too much to give up for Kessel and I would not have pulled the trigger. Fortunately for Leaf fans Burke is running the team, not me.

Burke set his sights on Kessel back during the draft and yesterday he got his man. He played tough with Boston and paid a fair price, though slightly less than what the compensation would have been had he signed Kessel to a $5.4 million offer sheet. By letting Kessel go to RFA status the Bruins lost control of him, and where he would be traded. As an RFA Burke was allowed to talk to Kessel and to let him know what the Leafs would pay. The Bruins did not want to trade him within the division especially for only futures, but Kessel was not going to sign with any other team. The Bruins hands were tied and Burke got him for basic CBA mandated compensation without having to play the offer sheet card.

Are two first round picks too much for Kessel? As I look at it this morning I think not. Toronto should be a middle of the pack team the next two years and the drafts coming up are not projected to be deep. This year, Peter Holland and Nick Leddy were picked in the middle of the first round. I’d rather have Kessel as a 22 year old fixture on my top line then gamble on prospects like Holland and Leddy who are still years away from establishing what type of players they will turn out to be.

This move also sets the immediate direction of the team. Fans and players can eliminate the loser mentality of wondering if the team should tank the season for a better first round pick next year. Those days are gone. Burke is about winning and the players better get on board and realize that the culture of this team has changed. Burke will be bold and play hard to make his team better. That is the mentality that he wants to see on the ice and throughout the organization.

Kessel’s start with the Leafs may be slower then fans might hope. The team does not have a true number one center for him to play with. At the latest this will be addressed next summer when several Leaf contracts expire and they can go after a playmaking center. If things break right, this might not be necessary and the answer might come from within. I would not be surprised to see Bozak given a shot at that role as the season moves on. For the future a top line of Bozak, Kessel and Stalberg could be in the cards for 2010/11. By then, or the following year, Kadri should have filled out and be ready to step in as the skilled number two center.

In addition to having some excess defense to trade, this growth from within likely signals the end to Leafs like Stajan, Ponikarovsky and Stempniak. All three will move down to third line status for next year, and all three will be too expensive for those roles. The scenario with these players should play out like it did for Moore last year and Burke will look to convert some of these assets into draft picks.

Burke has given a clear signal as to the direction of this team. The time for excuses is over and the time to compete is now.

Leaf Pre-Season Kicks Off

2009-09-17T09:20:00.002-04:00

After following the Coyotes legal case all summer it was great to finally see some action on the ice last night. Sure it was only the first exhibition game, but there were some positive signs last night.

The two players that impressed me most were Stalberg and Bozak. Stalberg’s speed and size stood out throughout the game. He outplayed Tlusty at left wing but a part of that may have been that Stalberg benefited by playing with Bozak while Tlusty was stuck on a line with Allison. Stalberg makes Tlusty very expendable in a potential Kessel trade and would not look out of place on the Leafs this year. I do think that he will likely start the season with the Marlies, but become a fixture when the contracts of Ponikarovsky and Primeau expire and open up room on the depth chart.

Bozak’s game really impressed me and he does have the look of a top six forward of the future. He showed maturity, a very high skill level and surprising speed. The Leafs do have Grabovski, Stajan and Mitchell ahead of him on the depth chart, so he may also start the year with the Marlies since I don’t think they want to play him on the fourth line. Though a little behind those two, Hanson did not look out of place playing with them and I can see that being the top line on the Marlies as we start the year. The good news is that all three should be with the Leafs next year as the contracts of Stajan, Stempniak and Mayers also come off the books.

The Leafs took a cautious approach with Kadri and started him off with Orr and Primeau riding shotgun on his line. Kadri looked a bit out of place with that line but picked up his game when Kulemin and Tlusty joined him as wingers. Kadri seemed to relax at that point and showed the skill level that Leaf fans had hoped to see. He should see a few more exhibition games and will then return to London for his final year of junior hockey. Look for him to have a good junior world tournament this year, spend most of next year with the Marlies and then be ready to join the big team for the 2011/12 season.

On a lower expectation level I liked the controlled play of Colton Orr last night. He showed that he can play a solid game of hockey while providing the physical presence that you want on the fourth line. The Leafs were involved with five fights last night, but none involved Orr as he just focused on solid hockey and finishing his checks.

Jason Allison did nothing to show he deserved to be on the team. On a night where Bozak and Kadri impressed with speed and skill at center, Allison just reaffirmed his image as being too slow for today’s game. I think the Leafs want to treat him with respect but he will hopefully be out of camp after a couple more outings.

Beauchemin was solid on defense and it will be great to see him on the ice for 20 plus minutes a game once the season starts. It was disappointing not to see him play with Schenn last night, but hopefully we will see them together soon. Exelby came as advertised and provided grit when he was on the ice while Ian White seemed to fade into the background. I think White may well be on the outside, or on another team, when the season starts in two weeks.

To me it looks like Burke has the depth of youngsters to be able to start moving some of the incumbent forwards as trade opportunities arise. He has about five forwards that are penciled in as starters this year that will not be with the team next year. Burke will not want to see them leave for nothing, so look for trades even for draft picks as the year moves on.

Training camp will race by now with eight more exhibition games in the next twelve nights. Tonight its off to London to play the Flyers and we should see the debut of Komisarek, Kaberle, Schenn, Grabovski and Stajan along with juniors Slaney and Stefanovich.

NFL Top 10 and Week 2 Picks

2009-09-15T09:46:00.000-04:00

1 - Pittsburgh 1-0 (Last week 2)
The defense picked up right where it left off last year. A slow start on the offensive side of the ball but its hard to look impressive against Tennessee.

2 - New England 1-0 (Last week 1)
Painful to watch if you are a Bills fan but somehow you just knew that the Patriots would find a way to win. Two very impressive touchdowns by Brady in the last three minutes to steal this one.

3 - NY Giants 1-0 (Last week 3)
A workman like win against the Redskins to start the season. Nothing at all flashy here, but all of the top teams got off to slow starts.

4 - Philadelphia 1-0 (Last week 5)
Losing McNabb won’t help them next week, but an easy win over the self destructing Panthers in week 1 is a nice way to start the year.

5 - Green Bay 1- 0 (Last week 7)
They didn’t blow out the Bears, but the defense sure made Cutler look terrible. Still an important division win to start the season and they avoided the type of tight losses that hurt them last year. The season could not have started off worse for the Bears with a terrible game by Cutler and the loss of Urlacher out for the year.

6 - NY Jets 1-0 (Last week unranked)
Have to reward the Jets for the best first week performance. A very solid debut by Sanchez and they totally handled the Texans on the road.

7 - Dallas 1-0 (Last week 8)
A comfortable win against Tampa in the first week. Great performance by Romo with 353 yards and 3 touchdowns.

8 - Minnesota 1-0 (Last week 9)
They started off very slow against a very bad Cleveland team but took control in the second half. Farve played a backseat role in the offense with only 110 yards passing while Peterson broke some big runs on route to 180 yards and 3 touchdowns.

9 - Indianapolis 1-0 (Last week 6)
Another blank of a game but the Colts came away with the win over Jacksonville. The Colts need to find some balance in their attack with Addai being held to 42 yards on the ground.

10 - San Diego 1-0 (Last week 4)
We’ll keep the Chargers in the top 10 this week, but they have to do better then squeaking out a win over the Raiders even if it is on the road.

Top 3 Pics (Last week 2-1 against the spread)

Take Pittsburgh minus 2 ½ at Chicago. Chicago’s season started off as bad as it could against the Vikes so this games worries me a bit as a bounce back. The Steelers will miss Polamalu, but I’ll give the points and look for Pittsburgh to overpower the Bears without Urlacher.

Houston plus 7 at Tennessee. Houston had a terrible start against the Jets at home but they are better then that. I look for them to stay within a touchdown of Tennessee whose offense does not impress me.

New Orleans plus 2 at Philadelphia. I hate to bet against Philly’s defense at home, but without McNabb and Vick I see Gregg Williams defense shutting down the Eagles enough to allow Brees to lead his team to victory.

Heatley Gets His Move

2009-09-14T10:28:00.000-04:00

The Heatley trade saga came down to the last minute but Murray finally pulled the trigger on the first day of camp. The deal to San Jose actually looks great for both Heatley and the Senators.

The Senators had to move Heatley. Rumors were already spreading about the real reason that Heatley demanded the trade and the situation was just going to get worse if he was not moved. The net result for the Sens is that they lose Heatley, but pick up Cheechoo and Michalek to go with the free agent acquisition of Kovalev. Add this to Spezza and Alfredsson and you have a wealth of top six forwards.

Since their playoff run of a few years back, the Senators have been stagnant and in decline. While Spezza and Heatley were a great combination, the team was relying on them too much. Though Heatley is the best player in the deal, you could argue that this trade even makes sense from a hockey perspective.

Michalek could be the biggest piece of the puzzle. At 24 years of age is he is already a proven 25 goal scorer and could easily be a 30 goal a year man on the top line. He also has size, speed and is responsible at the defensive side of the game as well. He should fit in well with Spezza on the top line and contribute to the first power play unit. With Alfredsson or Kovalev on the other wing I don’t expect the team to lose much production from their first line.

Cheechoo is a bit of a wild card and fans may be expecting a bit too much. He did win the Rocket Richard award in 2005/06 when he had 56 goals, but its been downhill since then. He was never fast, but after his sports hernia surgery he lost some of the jump he once had. Don’t look for Cheechoo to be a top scorer with the Sens and he may well be slotted in to a third line role. The net result however is a deeper team with more of the scoring spread out amongst the top three lines.

For Heatley, the move to San Jose is perfect. The team is a perennial winner, but being in California he will not be exposed to daily media glare. For a goal scorer you can not ask for more then to be paired up with Joe Thornton so he can expect another 50 goal season. Heatley should also be very motivated to confirm his standing as a top player so I see him coming out of the gate fast and earning a spot on the Olympic team.

From San Jose’s perspective, their GM promised to remake the team after another disappointing playoff performance and this trade qualifies as a bold move. Heatley adds flash and will add goals, but I really don’t see this as a move that makes them a stronger playoff team. Look for San Jose to have another good regular season but I don’t see them making it past the second round of the playoffs.

Conventional hockey wisdom states that the team that gets the best player in a trade wins the deal. While Heatley is the best player, I’m going to give this trade to Ottawa. They eliminated a distraction, shook up a team on a downward slide, and netted Kovalev, Michalek and Cheechoo to replace Heatley. A good move up front, though I would have liked to see them strengthen their blue line.

Jays Adrift

2009-09-10T10:55:00.000-04:00

Last night the Toronto Blue Jays hit a new attendance low for the Rogers Center. The announced attendance was 11,159 and that certainly looks small inside that stadium.

The sad part of this figure was that Halladay was pitching last night. During the Halladay trade talk so many fans said that if you trade the Doc I’ll never go to another Jays’ game. Well the Jays didn’t trade Halladay and still the fans do not show up.

Listening to the talk shows you hear so many people blame JP for the lack of interest. I am definitely not a JP booster, but that is just a cop out. If you are a baseball fan and you really care about the team keeping a pitcher like Halladay you have to go out and support the team, especially when he’s pitching. The only thing last nights game showed the owners was that the fans are not willing to support Halladay with their wallets.

At this point of the season I’m not laying the blame on JP for lack of attendance. The major fault now has to be laid at the feet of Rogers. JP has overstayed his welcome and the fan base in Toronto has tuned him out. Years of lies and arrogance has put JP in this position. Once the trade deadline expired and a Halladay deal could not be worked out Rogers should have fired JP right then. Granted it would not help the team for the balance of the season, but it would be tangible proof that the times are changing for the Jays. It would have been a bold statement, and a problem with the Jays is that they are anything but bold.

The fans have no idea what the future of the Jays is. Some information has been leaked that next year’s budget may jump up to $120 million, but there is not one shred of evidence that supports this. If there is any credence to that rumor I can not see any reason for Rogers not making that public. It would provide hope for the fans and give them some reason to believe. At present they are saying nothing and hiding behind the excuse that they are in the process of hiring a new president. Sorry that just doesn’t wash and the 11,159 fans in attendance last night bare that out.

The other bit of reality here is that Toronto is not a true baseball city. The stadium is in a perfectly accessible location and last night was a great night to see the game with fan favorite Halladay on the mound. The reality is that the fans are no longer paying attention to the Jays and there are very few true baseball fans in Toronto who even knew that Halladay was the scheduled pitcher. If they did know, not many showed up.

If disinterest is the major issue here, part of the blame must also fall on the manager. Cito is a player’s manager and his total focus is on the players on his team. He stands by them through thick and thin, but he does not appear to be an inspirational leader nor does he seem to think that getting the fans excited is his job. In Toronto we need that. We need someone running the team that inspires the fans and gives them a reason to believe. We are not Boston where baseball is so deep in our blood that we appreciate every nuance of the game. To attract crowds of 30,000 plus we need to be motivated and excited by the GM and manager of the team. That is especially the case when the team on the field is not producing results.

I really think that Rogers is perplexed by the attendance figures and is reevaluating their commitment to the team. I’m not saying the team will leave Toronto, but I would not be surprised to see it sold in the not too distant future.

Argo Nots & Top 3 NFL Picks

2009-09-08T09:31:00.000-04:00

Though I have yet to write about the Argos I am still a big fan of the team. Let me correct that, let’s say that I still want to be a big fan of the team. Yesterday’s Labour Day Classic performance by the Argos was simply ugly.

While Pinball likely saved the franchise with his personality and spirit, he started the slide by his push to sign Kerry Joseph a few years back. At the time the team was growing with a developing quarterback in Michael Bishop. Pinball pushed Rita to sign Joseph off his Grey Cup win with Saskatchewan. This created a division within the team and Joseph has never been the quarterback that Pinball envisioned. The signing created a buzz at the time, but CFL watchers could see disaster all over this move.

The coaching side has also been on downward spiral. Stubler was a great defensive coordinator for the team, but he was a bust when he was promoted to head coach after Pinball’s retirement. Maybe he would have grown in his new position, but the team panicked quickly last year and fired him after only 10 games. What to do next? Do you go with an old retread CFL coach, or do you try the “new” way and hire an NFL type that is new to the league since that worked for Montreal. Well for some reason the Argos did both.

First, they hired Dan Matthews who was one of the best CFL coaches ever, but had burned out a few years ago. He no longer had the drive and his record was 0-8 to finish the season. Then they hired Bart Andrus with no CFL experience and he has the team off to a 2-7 record this year.

While I like Andrus’ no nonsense approach, he does not understand the CFL and he did not hire assistants with CFL experience. The team’s game plan is based on perfect execution and that makes no sense with a rookie QB and inexperienced receivers. In the last two games Pickett has had a great completion percentage, but there is no attempt to stretch the field and defenses find it all too easy to disrupt any drive. Without the threat of going deep, defenses can stuff the run on first down and then focus on short passes on second down. Even if you complete 2 out of 3 passes, your drives die.

Another example of mismanagement is that for the last game the Argos wasted an import spot by having two import kickers on the roster. This is even more ridiculous when they had Prefontaine on their roster and he was more than capable at both punting and kicking before they let him go to Edmonton. The team is a pure mess and likely needs both a new GM and coach.

Top 3 NFL Picks

Take Philadelphia minus 1 ½ at Carolina. I think the Eagles may implode a little once Vick is activated, but I like them coming out of the gate fast and Carolina will not have a strong year.

Take Minnesota minus 3 ½ at Cleveland. I love the Browns, but this could be a very sad year for them. The Vikes have the defense and way too much offense for Cleveland. Look for a blowout.

Take Houston minus 4 ½ at home against the Jets. The Texans are on the way up while the Jets try to break in a rookie QB on the road.

MLSE Territorial Veto

2009-09-04T10:46:00.000-04:00

One of the biggest areas of confusion in the Coyotes case is the alleged MLSE veto over a second NHL franchise coming to Southern Ontario. This veto is seen as something MLSE will use out of fear of competition to protect their Toronto area monopoly at all costs. The possibility of MLSE suing the NHL to protect this veto power will likely be central to a Balsillie anti-trust action against the NHL if they purse that route.

The reality is that MLSE does not fear competition from a second NHL team in its area. The Leafs are the Leafs and their legion of fans has supported them when all rational people would have abandoned the team. A Hamilton Blackberry franchise would have little effect on Leaf fans and would not put a dent in MLSE revenue.

A larger fear for MLSE is what effect a second team would have on the Raptors, on arena bookings and on television rights. The Raptors could feel some effect in terms of fan support and corporate marketing dollars, but the basketball fan base is quite separate from hockey fans. Likewise marketing dollars exist for both in the region.

A bigger concern is the possibility of a second arena drawing concerts and events away from the Air Canada Center. To this end the Hamilton franchise would not be a bad thing for MLSE since the arena already exists and no new competition is added. The television pie is already split with numerous Canadian franchises and it is not likely that a new team would take away from the mystique of the Leafs. By and large the Toronto market will not be clamoring for more Hamilton hockey games. If a second NHL team in the area forces more Leaf games off network television, MLSE will be more than happy to accommodate those games on Leaf TV.

From all these perspectives a Hamilton franchise may well be the best possible scenario for a second NHL team from MLSE’s point of view. So, why are they threatening to play the veto card and why are they not in favor of the Hamilton franchise?

The reason is that MLSE is not a defensive organization, they are an offensive one. They view this alleged veto as an asset. They are not willing to give that asset away, nor are they willing to sell it for some $25 – 50 million in indemnification fees.

They realize that a second team will eventually come to the GTA and they realize that their veto is likely not enforceable in court. What they want to do is maximize this veto asset and they will only give it up for a lucrative business opportunity.

What they likely want to do is forge a business partnership with the second GTA team and leverage that into a massive development. They envision a second arena with a surrounding development of condos, restaurants, stores, etc. with the new hockey team being the core tenant in the arena that MLSE will own. That type of project will generate the type of revenue that they will demand for agreeing to a second GTA hockey team. At that point you will see them welcome a second team for Southern Ontario hockey fans and join that team in its submission to the NHL.

The only problem for MLSE with Balsillie or Hamilton is that it doesn’t satisfy the one question that we hear all too often today. “What’s in it for me?”

Komisarek Leafs Biggest Gamble

2009-09-03T11:49:00.000-04:00

Most of Burke’s moves this off season have little risk. Gustavsson, Bozak and Hanson are all no risk, high upside signings. Colton Orr at a million a year is fine as a fourth line player and enforcer. Exelby, Wallin and Primeau all have only one year remaining on their contracts and as such have no ongoing liability if they prove that they are not part of the future. The Beauchemin signing involved more years, but he is in the prime of his career, recovered from his injury, and is a great addition for top four minutes on the blue line and a likely defense pairing with Luke Schenn.

The one big question is the signing of Mike Komisarek. At age 27, 6’4 and 240, he should be exactly the type of defenseman that you pair with a player like Tomas Kaberle. He is a punishing player with very good defensive skills that can keep the crease clean and provide confidence for those on the ice with him. At his age he should still be improving and should just be entering the prime of his career.

The question mark surrounding Komisarek is whether he will rebound to be the player that he was before his two fights with Milan Lucic last year. Komisarek took a battering in both those fights and also likely sustained lingering injuries. He never returned to the form he had and appeared to have lost his confidence and commanding presence on the ice for the rest of the season and playoffs.

He was definitely dumped on by some of the fans in Montreal and took the heat as part of the reason for the first round blowout by the Bruins. The Canadiens evaluated their situation after the season and did not really give up on him. Reports were that they offered him a $4 million contract to re-sign as a UFA but would not go higher. Burke jumped in and lured Komisarek to Toronto with a 5 year contract at $4.5 million per season.

The term of the contract is not a stretch for a 27 year old, but at $4.5 million a season Komisarek has to return to a dominant physical presence on the blue line to justify the dollars. The Leafs do not need him to be the policeman for the team, but with his limited ability to handle the puck his role is to intimidate the other team inside the Leafs blue line and he must be worthy of top pair minutes.

The one additional factor that makes you think the gamble is worth it is that Burke knows Komisarek from his involvement with the US hockey program. He should have the inside story and know whether last year’s decline was largely due to injury. Komisarek definitely has the character that Burke loves and the Leafs need. The fans just have to hope that the off season has allowed any physical and psychological scars to heal and that Komisarek will be back to his usual physical self. If he is, a partnership with Kaberle and his puck moving skills will be great for both players.

I think we have to trust Burke with this move, but at 5 years at $4.5 million a season it is the Leafs biggest gamble of the off season and one that could handcuff the team if it does not pan out.

NFL Pre-Season Top 10

2009-09-02T08:49:00.001-04:00

My version of the NFL top 10 will be updated each week. Here’s how I see it heading into the season.

1 - New England
Brady’s back at the controls and that makes the Patriots just too hard to defend. Combine that with the brilliance of Belichik and the Patriots are the team to beat once again.

2 - Pittsburgh
The defending champions will remain hungry with Tomlin in charge. The defense is as tough as it gets and Roethlisberger will continue to play a more controlled game as the Steelers look to repeat.

3 - NY Giants
The NFC is still the poor cousin to the AFC, but the Giants combination of a pounding defense and pounding running game make them the most consistent team in the conference. Eli has grown up and knows how to manage an offense.

4 - San Diego
Playing in the easy AFC West almost gives them a bye to the playoffs. LT and a solid defense are the plusses, but can Norv Turner match the top coaches in the league?

5 - Philadelphia
On talent this team could be the class of the NFC, but the loss of Jim Johnson will be a big blow to the defense. Vick adds talent and a new look, but his playing gives McNabb another excuse for bad play.

6 - Indianapolis
I might be rating the Colts too high, but I have a lot of faith in Peyton’s will not to lose. The change from Dungy to Caldwell may actually give the Colts a wakeup call and eliminate some complacency that has been creeping in.

7 - Green Bay
This is my surprise team coming off a 6-10 season. Look for a breakout year for Aaron Rodgers and Packer pride beating the Vikings out for the division title. The new look defense will also help.

8 - Dallas
The Cowboys may be a top 5 team, but they play in the toughest conference. I look for the Giants and Eagles to beat the Cowboys down and Romo has not shown me that he can lead a team all the way.

9 - Minnesota
The favorite by most to win their conference, but I think the addition of Favre will be more of a negative as the season wears on and the body breaks down. Their defense and running game makes them tough to bet against however.

10 - Arizona
You have to show a bit of respect for a Super Bowl team so we’ll start them at the 10 spot. I’m not confident that their air attack and aggressive D can lead them back but they do have an easier conference to play in.

Others to watch: Chicago (addition of Jay Cutler finally gives them a starting QB), New Orleans (Gregg Williams magic can transform the D), Tennessee (loss of Haynesworth keeps them out of my top 10), Atlanta (solid team on the rise), Baltimore (I hate when teams lose a top defensive coordinator)

Super Bowl: New England beats the NY Giants to make up for the lost “perfect” season.

Leaf Camp Questions

2009-09-01T08:59:00.000-04:00

What better way to spend the first morning of September then to look forward to the start of the NHL season. The players will soon be arriving at camp and the Leafs have many questions that need to be answered. Let’s have a look at some of the most pressing issues.

Who will be on the third defense pairing? Barring injury Kaberle, Komisarek, Beauchemin and Schenn have the top four defense spots locked up. That leaves the Leafs with five more NHL ready defensemen competing for the final pairing and the reserve spot. Frogren was a starter last year, but he will likely be on the outside looking in. Van Ryn should be on the final pairing and may also be trade bait for Burke. White’s flexibility should land him the spot as the seventh defenseman with his ability to quarterback the second power play unit and help up front if needed. That likely leaves the battle for the final spot between Finger and Exelby. The Leafs love Exelby’s grit, but it will be hard swallow Finger’s $3.5 million salary if he is sent down to the minors. I see Burke trying very hard to move either Van Ryn or Finger prior to the start of the season to ease the log jam, though that Finger contract may well be impossible to move.

Is Gustavsson ready for the NHL? Burke spent lots of time and effort to land Gustavsson this summer with the idea of him starting the season as Toskala’s backup and hopefully being the number one man next year. The exhibition season will show whether he is ready to step right into the NHL, or if some seasoning with the Marlies is necessary. The signing of Joey MacDonald gives the Leafs a proven backup should Gustavsson need a little more time, but my guess is that Gustavsson will start the year as the Leafs number two goalie.

Is Bozak ready? Hanson and Bozak were two big college signings the Leafs made at the end of last year. Hanson played a few games with the Leafs, but Bozak was kept out of action due to an injury. Bozak is likely the one with the biggest chance to jump right into the NHL and will be given a chance by the club to make the team out of camp. I’d rate his chances as high as 50/50, but seeing him crack the lineup would be great news for the future.

Can Tlusty finally claim a top six spot? While a top six spot on the Leafs isn’t exactly the pinnacle of hockey success, the hope is that Tlusty finally discovered something during his last stint with the Marlies. While it seems as if he’s been trying to crack the lineup for years, he is only 21. If he earn a full time spot on one of the top two lines that would be a big step for him and the team.

Will Kulemin build off his rookie year? Kulemin had a strong rookie campaign with 15 goals and will be given a shot to play right wing on the top line. He showed plenty of skill during his first year and a jump to 25 goals would not be out of reason. Can he and Grabovski find chemistry on the top line?

What will Primeau’s role be? Little was made of the pickup of Wayne Primeau, but I think he may have an important role to play for the team this year. He may well center the fourth line, but he may also see time on the top lines when some size is needed. He has a history of playing for Wilson so look for the team to make good use of his 6’4, 225 pound size if he manages to stay away from injuries.

How will the PK develop? Penalty killing was a major weakness of the team last year. With new size on defense the team should do a better job of clearing the front of the net which will help the goalies. Primeau will also help with his size and reach, but improvement here will be a major focus of camp.

Training camp is less then two weeks away and the season starts in just one month. These chilly mornings are helping us get into the mood.

NHL In Conflicting Positions

2009-08-27T09:43:00.001-04:00

It sure does not look like the NHL is used to being in a situation where it is not in control. With their bid for the Coyotes they are now in several positions of conflict of interest and have an unfair advantage over other bidders.

First of all the NHL is the second largest secured creditor of the Coyotes. As a result they have a right to help determine which bid is most acceptable to the creditors. The NHL is also in charge of approving proposed owners, so they believe they have the right to determine who is in the auction. Now, the NHL is also a bidder for the Coyotes. This would mean that one bidder believes they can control who the other bidders are and also have the right to help determine who the winning bidder is.

According to the NHL, a bankruptcy judge isn’t really required is it?

One of the interesting elements here is the Ice Edge bid and how they have no problem with the NHL now being a bidder. This speaks to both the credibility of the Ice Edge bid and also to the backroom discussions that must be in place between Ice Edge and the NHL. The NHL Board of Governors has yet to formally accept Ice Edge as approved owners and they have yet to approve Ice Edge’s plan to play five home games a year in Saskatoon. If Ice Edge were truly an independent bidder they would have a major problem with the fact that a competing bidder will be the one that approves their suitability for ownership and their business plan.

When we take this a step further, we look at the NHL’s motion to vacate the Balsillie bid. With the NHL now in the role of a bidder in the auction, they are asking that the judge to vacate a competitive bid. This may well give Balsillie’s team further ammunition in its attempt to invalidate the NHL’s vote of him being an unacceptable owner, and therefore bidder.

Since the NHL’s bid states that the Board of Governors has approved their bid, the question that begs to be asked is; when did they approve this strategy? The bid is very detailed so the strategy was not approved yesterday. Was this in fact a strategy when they voted to reject Balsillie as an owner? Is that not a further conflict of interest and grounds to invalidate the vote?

From Judge Baum’s perspective this could well be viewed as an attempt to pre-empt a fair and competitive auction. The NHL launched its bid only after Reinsdorf pulled out and is basically stating that their bid is there just in case a bid that they don’t like may win. The NHL also expects Judge Baum to be fine with the NHL being the entity to approve who can bid in his auction (their claim that only NHL approved owners can bid), help determine a winner (their status as a secured creditor), and be a competitive bidder all at the same time.

The NHL’s bid only contains a one year commitment to Glendale and the comment that the Glendale lease is not workable for a local owner. They further state that they may have to sell the team to a relocating buyer in a year with a percentage of those gains going to the NHL. Why would this be acceptable to the bankruptcy judge since his job is to secure the best deal today for the creditors, not to approve a deal to a party that plans on selling the asset in a year at a profit when there already is such a relocation bid on the table?

The judge may well ask himself the following questions. Is the NHL truly committed to Glendale as they originally stated? Was the NHL truthful in its claim of having numerous local buyers? Is the NHL trying to prevent a relocation bid today which would provide more money for the creditors and current owner, with the intent of selling to a relocation bidder a year down the road when they will reap a profit? In view of the preceding, was the NHL acting impartially when it voted against Balsillie being a suitable owner?

It will be very interesting to see how Judge Baum reacts to the NHL’s bid when the hearings resume next Wednesday.

NHL Bids For Coyotes

2009-08-26T09:42:00.000-04:00

With the spotlight shining bright on lease negotiations between Reinsdorf and Glendale the talks fell apart and Reinsdorf pulled out of the auction for the Coyotes. At the same time the NHL jumped in with an offer to purchase the team. No details of the NHL bid have been released, but their stated intent is to try and sell the team to a third party that will keep the team in Glendale.

The reality is that such a buyer will not be found. When this bankruptcy was declared the NHL stated they had four interested parties. The reality is that with the possible exception of Ice Edge, no bidder could be found with a long term commitment to Phoenix. Reinsdorf was likely fronting a bid to keep Balsillie out of the game, but he was not willing to risk real money on this venture, or to accept a lease with Glendale that was not more favorable and did not come with an out clause. The Glendale council met on Monday to review the lease negotiations and on Tuesday Reinsdorf dropped out of the bidding.

This left the NHL with the possibility that the only bidder standing at the time of the auction could be Balsillie. There was real concern that Balsillie may have been successful in challenging the NHL’s position that he could not be allowed to purchase the franchise. That possibility became more real with Reinsdorf dropping out. If Balsillie did succeed, the only way the NHL could block him would have been through launching an appeal. That process would have unknown costs and may have exposed them to liability in regards to the other creditors that were denied payment. The NHL’s solution was to launch bid themselves and pull the team out of bankruptcy.

Where the NHL has an unfair advantage, and where Glendale is exposed, is that NHL is in a conflict of interest. They are the second largest creditor. They are the organization that approves potential owners. They are the organization that derives revenue from expansion. Now, they are also the bidder for the franchise.

All other bidders must be relatively honest in their bids. If they desire to operate the team in Glendale they must negotiate a lease with Glendale that they can live with. If they want to relocate the team they must do that as part of the bankruptcy process so that they know what their liability to Glendale is. The NHL has to do neither.

What the NHL can do is purchase the team in bankruptcy and state their goal is to find a local buyer. If this is impossible, the NHL can walk away from Phoenix by declaring Chapter 7 bankruptcy after this season. Sure any other buyer can do that as well, but then that buyer would lose their investment. What the NHL can do however is auction off a new expansion franchise to recover their Phoenix costs while using Chapter 7 to shield them from ongoing liability towards other creditors and Glendale’s lease.

The “cover story” for this will look quite pretty for the NHL. They will blame Balsillie and Moyes for poisoning the Phoenix market to the point that no buyer could be found. They will boast about how they stepped up to the plate and took losses for a year in an attempt to be loyal to Phoenix. Then they will reluctantly disband the franchise under Chapter 7 bankruptcy.

As a totally unrelated event, they will declare a new expansion franchise for the GTA with the full blessing of MLSE. MLSE will build and manage the new arena and surrounding development and welcome the new team with open arms and wallet. The NHL will then use the $400 million or so expansion fee to cover the Phoenix costs, provide indemnification payments to MLSE and Buffalo, and disburse the remainder to the other loyal governors.

All in all it’s a pretty interesting strategy. Will Glendale go along with this plan, or will they see that a quick deal with Balsillie in the $50 million dollar range may be the best way to protect their investment?

This and That

2009-08-24T09:27:00.001-04:00

Well Dany Heatley finally spoke about his desire to leave the Senators. Somehow he feels that he’s a loyal fellow and a great teammate. He says that his problem with the Senators is that his role has been diminished. This argument doesn’t appear to hold water since neither his ice time or production have not gone down with the new coach. He pointed out that he didn’t want his trade demand to become public, but that does not take away from the fact that he did demand to be traded after signing a contract that included a no trade clause that he asked for. He said that he loves Edmonton as a hockey town, but he wanted to have more options and choices. Strange isn’t it, you demand a trade, but in his case I guess that means the team must find several trades for you so that you can choose which one you, the player, like the best. Of course Heatley is not about to walk away from all his money out of principle, so if a trade that he likes isn’t made, he’ll show up with the Senators at training camp anyway. It seems to be all about Dany in his world.

Balsillie probably made a big mistake by including Melnyk in his court filings. Melnyk was one person that may have been an ally to Balsillie if the NHL’s stand against him started to break down, but now he may have lost that ally. Melnyk certainly took exception to being drawn into the court case, but I was surprised by him wanting to make this more public. I think everybody is pretty bored by the details of Balsillie’s legal filing and Melnyk’s OSC settlement is old news so nobody really raised an eyebrow when Balsillie included him in the filing. I think he would have been smarter to just let this slide by instead of taking shots back at Balsillie. Maybe the NHL nudged him into making the public statement, though I really don’t see the point.

The Rogers tennis tournament produced some good tennis and upsets. Normally upsets are great, but you always have to wonder about them when it happens at this tournament. Serena Williams seemed particularly disinterested in her semi-final loss on Saturday. The reality is that many of the top players use this tournament as a tune up for the US Open and do not plan on a long stay here so the top seeds going down quickly has become the norm. All said though I must admit that I can’t complain too much about watching Maria Sharapova make it all the way to the finals in her comeback bid. There is something about her game that I just like.

Also in the world of woman’s sport we had the Solheim Cup in golf which pitted the top US golfers against those from Europe. This year’s version not only produced some great golf, but the enthusiasm of team golf is a great change from the routine tournaments that we see each week. For me, the Ryder Cup, President’s Cup and Solheim all compare right up there with the majors as must see TV. The US women’s team featured a changing of the guard with Creamer, Pressel, Kim, Wie and Gulbis all involved. Michelle Wie had a great weekend and seemed to rediscover some of her fire for the game. Hopefully her success in this tournament puts her career back on track. The tournament was also likely a finale for Julie Inkster and Laura Davies on the world golf stage.

Lastly, let’s congratulate Toronto’s newest champions. A champion in Toronto you ask? Yes, the Toronto Nationals won the 2009 Major League Lacrosse Championship in their first season. For those not familiar with this league, it is outdoor lacrosse played on the equivalent of a football field. Somehow I managed to find it on television and witnessed the last two minutes. As of yet I have not heard of a planned parade on Bay Street but I’ll let you know if anything gets planned.

Teachers Increase MLSE Stake

2009-08-22T09:58:00.000-04:00

While the Balsillie battle escalates, the Ontario Teachers Pension Plan quietly increased its ownership in MLSE by buying out the 7.7% stake of CTVGlobemedia. The understanding is that CTVGlobemedia wanted to pay down some of its debt from the CHUM acquisition and strengthen its bottom line due to the general softening in the media market.

The knee jerk reaction is to shudder at the teachers obtaining more control of MLSE. They have been vilified for a long time for not caring about the performance of the teams that they owned and only caring about the financial results. This view was not totally wrong, but I have seen a new approach over the past few years which is encouraging.

The problem a few short years ago was that Richard Peddie had a tight control over the sports operations of the Leafs and the Raptors. Peddie is no doubt a great businessman, but he likely craved some of the media spotlight that is associated with running the prime Toronto sports franchises. Instead of hiring experienced managers to run the teams, Peddie hired people like Babcock and Ferguson Jr.

These managers were not sought by other teams to run their franchises and were very indebted to Peddie for getting the change to run teams here. They did not have the strength to run the teams as they saw fit, and were very susceptible to influence from Peddie and the board. A player like Domi could go to an owner and the resulting pressure from above would effect the team. With weak managers in place, Peddie continued to be the face of the franchises and was constantly in the media spotlight. While the spotlight was not flattering, it still allowed Peddie more fame and recognition then a business executive would normally receive.

The results on the ice and on the court were however a disaster. Both the Leafs and Raptors became more of a laughingstock as the ineptness of the managers was revealed. Peddie stayed loyal to them as long as he could but soon the situation became untenable and risked his position.

The Raptors suffered first because they were new and needed to be perceived as a winner to build a following. The bungled Carter trade was an embarrassment and made the team the butt of jokes across North America. This low, was likely the catalyst that MLSE needed to realize that it had to hire professionals to run their sports teams. Their concern was not so much that they wanted to win, but they had to protect the “Maple Leaf” brand since they were using that to sell condos and develop other projects. If MLSE was perceived as a joke, then the brand would suffer and the value of their overall investment would start to crumble.

Colangelo’s hiring brought instant dividends. The team improved on the court, but more importantly the image improved. The Raptors were no longer a joke in the NBA and by extension MLSE gained credibility which can be translated as brand loyalty. This forced Peddie off the court so to speak and last year MLSE followed that successful model by handing the hockey operations over to Brian Burke. With two articulate professionals running the teams the credibility and image of MLSE is back on the rise.

With salary caps in effect in both leagues, MLSE can not be asked to outspend other teams. The only thing they can be asked to do is spend to the cap and to hire the best possible managers to run their teams. With Colangelo and Burke they have finally not gone the cheap route and have done exactly that.

I believe that MLSE has finally come to realize that for financial success their teams can no longer be allowed to become jokes. If that is the case, then the increased stake of the teacher’s pension fund is not the bad news that some would think.

Burke Brewing Big Acquisition?

2009-08-19T11:25:00.001-04:00

The Fan 590 had a very interesting interview with Burke this morning. He stated that he was not interested in pursuing any of the free agents still on the market, but would more likely use the Leafs remaining cap space to make up the salary differential in a trade for a top flight forward.

What that means is that Burke would look at trading an excess defenseman for a prime forward on a team that wishes to save or open some cap space. This type of trade would not be an even talent for talent trade, but would be as much about the other team moving a contract that they no longer like.

Looking at the possibilities with this type of trade is interesting. An immediate team that comes to mind is San Jose who has just taken the captaincy and assistant-captaincy away from Marleau and Thornton. These players have led the Sharks to great regular seasons but the constant playoff flops has soured the team on both of them. Marleau is on the last year of his contract earning $6.2 million, Thornton has two years left at $7.2 million and the Sharks have no cap space left. The Leafs obviously do not have talent on defense to match up with those players, but a Van Ryn or White coupled with a high draft pick might give the Sharks something to think about. For the Leafs it would mean taking on an oversized contract for soon to be free agents, but those are the type of players that would look great on the front line and could be resigned.

The other thought that keeps popping up is Phil Kessel. Training camps are less then a month away and Kessel still remains an unsigned RFA controlled by the Bruins. The Bruins have stated that they will match any offer made to Kessel, but they have less than $2 million of cap space available. The Kaberle/Kessel trade did not work out this summer, but might the Leafs and Bruins be interested in a trade that sends Kessel to the Leafs for White and the Leafs number one pick next year? Kessel is likely a $4 - $5 million player and that appears to be more then the Bruins are willing to commit to him. The Leafs could make that trade, sign Kessel to a long term deal and pen him in on their number one line for the next five years. Spending a number one pick for him makes sense since there are no sure things in the draft and Kessel will only turn 22 at the start of the season.

One other situation that could involve the Leafs is the eventual trade of Heatley. While the Leafs do not have interest in Heatley, they could become involved as a third team in a trade where they pick up a pricey young forward allowing the other team to afford the Heatley contract.

Other teams worth keeping an eye on include Chicago, Los Angeles, Phoenix and Pittsburgh. All these teams have an excess of young talent up front and could either use back end help or additional cap space.

Johnson More Than An Expiring Contract

2009-08-18T08:39:00.001-04:00

Colangelo has completed almost a full makeover of the Raptor team that started last season. Twelve new faces join the team, with only Bosh, Bargnani and Calderon remaining from the group that gathered last year at training camp. Last season was a major disappointment for Colangelo and it was interesting to watch his calm demeanor at the end of the season. He did not talk about blowing the team up, but that is exactly what he did. He just did it very quietly and he did it without announcing it first.

The trade of Delfino and Ukic is another one of his trades that works on a couple of levels. With this summer’s moves neither player was going to see meaningful playing time with the team. Ukic still has potential to grow into a solid NBA player, but with Calderon and Jack already on the team he was not going to see court time. Instead of letting him rot at the end of the bench, Colangelo packaged him off to Milwaukee where he should get to see more playing time. Delfino may well start for the Bucks, but he required a multi year commitment and here he would have only been the fifth guard. The depth he would have provided would have been offset by cluttering up the rotation and taking playing time away from DeRozan, Jack and Belinelli.

The acquisition of Amir Johnson is interesting. He was one of the last high school players that jumped directly to the NBA and was buried on the Pistons bench. His development has been slow, but at age 22 I think he is more than just an expiring contract. He has the physical skills and attitude to rebound and play defense and may be able to provide some athletic minutes in the rotation. His natural position is power forward but he can also play some center and provide a different look then Nesterovic off the bench if more athleticism is required for a particular match up.

If Johnson can develop under Triano and Iavaroni he could be part of the future if Bosh decides to leave after next year. His upside in that scenario could see him play with Bargnani and Turkoglu in 2011 where he would provide a nice athletic compliment to their skill games. Should Johnson not pan out, both he and Weems are in the final year of their contracts so there is no financial commitment beyond this year.

During this makeover Colangelo has done an almost perfect job of not taking on any bad contracts. The only contract that he would like to get rid of is Banks who will be making about $4.5 million this season and next. While that contract is likely not movable now, it will be next year when it becomes an expiring contract.

Another angle that I am curious about is whether these moves are intentional in trying to balance the makeup of the team between international and US players. Turkoglu and Belinelli are both skill European players and their additions fit along nicely with Bargnani and Calderon. The lack of grit that hurt the team last year has been addressed by bringing in Evans, Jack and Johnson, and the drafting of the athletic DeRozan. This provides the team with a change of pace off the bench which they did not really have last year.

This team looks very exciting, but it will be a new starting five, a new rotation and a new coaching group so training camp will be critical. I think that Triano and Iavaroni may be the perfect coaches for this group with the ability to organize, teach and think outside the box.

Colangelo has put together a very interesting team and if all the pieces fall in place they could be ready to move up the ladder fairly quickly.

Kaberle Stays, Playoffs the Goal

2009-08-17T09:52:00.000-04:00

Despite the hype on draft night, the Kaberle trade window came to a close on the weekend with Kaberle still a member of the team. Burke views Kaberle as a premier defenseman and was not willing to move him unless he could get a top six forward that fit into the team’s long term plans in return. The problem is that Kaberle is coming off a couple of average seasons and will need a strong showing this year to regain his trade value.

Kaberle remaining on the team is by no means all bad. The team has added grit and toughness on defense so his ability to move the puck, generate offense and quarterback the power play is a great need. This year he will likely be paired with 6’4, 240 pound Mike Komisarek. Komisarek is a tough player and good defender, but has trouble moving the puck under pressure. With this pairing his game will be simplified and all he has to do is get the puck over to Kaberle. Kaberle too should see an improvement in his game since he will have Komisarek to watch his back and clear the front of the net.

It was good for the team that Kaberle agreed to waive his no-trade clause at the last trade deadline. This established a level of trust with Burke which will be good for the overall team. If the Leafs are playoff contenders this year Kaberle will play a key role. If the team struggles, it would not be surprising to see Kaberle again waive his not trade clause at the trade deadline with a deal more likely.

With Kaberle staying, the roster will not change much prior to the start of the season. Burke will try and move an excess defender, but the deal may well be one for prospects or draft choices. At this point of the summer we can finally start trying to figure out if the Leafs have a realistic shot at the playoffs this season.

Last year they were 12 points and 4 spots out of the playoffs. To make it this year, they have to pass Ottawa, Buffalo, Florida and either Montreal or New York. This will not be easy, but none of those teams enters the coming season without question marks.

The Senators still have the Heatley situation hanging over their heads, have done nothing to improve their defense and are counting on Leclaire to finally be the answer in goal. Buffalo stood still over the summer and Florida will feel the loss of Bouwmeester. With Toronto’s strengthened defense they may well be able to pass these three teams if they get solid goaltending from Toskala and Gustavsson.

That leaves Montreal or the Rangers as the other team the Leafs have to pass to get into the playoffs. The Canadiens may well be the team that will slip this year. Montreal has completely rebuilt their roster and brought in a new coach. Gone are Koivu, Kovalev, Higgins, Komisarek, Tanguay, Lang, Schneider, Dandenault and Brisebois. Montreal did bring in new players to fill the spots but the new skill players are very small and the back end does not look like it will be as strong. Jacques Martin has never been known as a communicator so trying to mold this group into a team under the glare of the Montreal media might be too much of a challenge. Price will also need a quick start so that he can regain his confidence.

The big challenge for the Leafs will be having players grow into offensive roles on the top two lines. What Burke did manage to do this summer was build a defense that will be among the very top in the East. At this point it looks like they should be able to make a run at a playoff spot and maybe even push the Rangers for seventh.

Las Vegas Tigers of Hamilton

2009-08-13T09:34:00.001-04:00

This is being written tongue in cheek but with the upside down world of reality in the NHL you have to wonder some days.

Jim Balsillie wants to put a team in Hamilton and Gary Bettman would love to have a team in Las Vegas. Are we at an impasse? I say no. Why don’t they put their heads together and come up with a solution that gives both of them what they want. I say they come out of these negotiations and announce the “Las Vegas Tigers of Hamilton” who play all their home games in Hamilton.

Ridiculous you say? Well the NHL Board of Governors has encouraged the Ice Edge group to move ahead and make a bid that includes playing some of Phoenix’s home games in Saskatoon, so they have set a precedent that they would consider this type of arrangement. I’m just saying that we take it a step further and play all of Las Vegas’ home games in Hamilton. Yeah, that’s the ticket!

We’re borrowing the concept of the team name from MLB. They already have the Los Angeles Dodgers of Anaheim. On the schedule and in the standings the team is already just being referred to as Los Angeles. Originally the team was the Anaheim Angels and contractually they have to keep Anaheim in the team name, but MLB thought it would be better to promote the name Los Angeles so voila, they accomplished both.

The NHL can just take this one step further. Jim would have his team. Hamilton would have NHL hockey. Gary can ignore the tiny detail of where the games are being played and sell the new “Las Vegas” franchise to the television networks. This will even provide some logic to the idea of having the NHL awards ceremony in Vegas each year.

Can’t you just see the team winning the Stanley Cup and Gary handing them the trophy at Copps Coliseum. He would then smile that big smile of his and say, “Gee, hockey sure looks like it’s doing well in Las Vegas!”

The more you think about it, this could be a match made in heaven. Even the Tigers name is perfect. It has tradition in Hamilton and even makes sense for Vegas. As a compromise the tiger could be white in honor of Siegfried and Roy. That would give it that Vegas connection and to respect the fans of Hamilton it would of course be set on the base colours of black and gold.

I don’t think Gary would have any ethics issues here, but if that were the case, then maybe one or two home games could be played in Vegas as a compromise. All the games would likely be sell outs and this “Las Vegas” franchise would be a sure fire success.

I think we better get this idea over to the boys at league headquarters right away.

Leafs Net Work

2009-08-12T08:20:00.001-04:00

The trade of Pogge and signing MacDonald puts the Leafs in solid shape in goal with plenty of options for the future. The MacDonald addition seems like a trivial signing but it is a smart move for Gustavsson’s development because of the insurance factor.

Toskala will be the starting goalie and this should be a bounce back year for him. He is coming off groin surgery and that hurt his play last year. There is some concern however in that Toskala is not a goalie built for a super heavy workload. He can wear down and he has a history of nagging injuries. Ideally he will play a solid 55 games this year which would leave plenty of games for Gustavsson to work his way into the league.

The point of exposure the Leafs had is what happens if Toskala goes down. One thing you do not want to do is rush Gustavsson into a heavy workload as a starter before he is ready for it. I have got great hopes for Gustavsson, but until he has a chance to prove himself in the NHL you can not just assume that he is an NHL starting goalie. MacDonald played just under 50 games for the Islanders last year and had a solid save percentage. He provides the Leafs with a goalie that can step in for Toskala if he gets injured and still allow Gustavsson to work his way into the NHL without being rushed.

Should Gustavsson live up to expectations and show he is ready to start by the mid point of the season, MacDonald gives you a proven backup should the opportunity arise to trade Toskala at the deadline. This is a long shot, but if Toskala plays well and if a contender suffers a goaltending injury, then Toskala and his expiring contract become a pretty attractive option. Failing that, you let Toskala leave as a UFA at the end of the season and MacDonald can be resigned as your experienced backup next year.

The other nice thing about MacDonald joining the depth chart is that Gustavsson will now be pushed. MacDonald does not want to spend the year with the Marlies so he will be busting his butt for playing time. This type of competition is nothing but good news for Gustavsson’s development in that it will provide him with extra motivation. MacDonald’s presence also allows the Leafs to move Gustavsson to the Marlies for a short time period should he require a bit more playing time then he is ready for at the NHL level.

All three goalies are on the last year of their contracts so Burke can evaluate the situation at the end of the season. The Leafs have control of Gustavsson as an RFA, so if he performs as expected they will sign him to a long term contract. If Gustavsson is not ready to be the number one next year Burke will have the option of resigning Toskala or entering the free agent market to pick up a replacement.

Adios Rios

2009-08-11T08:11:00.001-04:00

The numbers that matter with Rios are not his declining batting average or home runs, it is the salary commitment that the Jays had for the next five years. Beginning next year, his salary will jump to $9.7 million in 2010 followed by salaries of $12 and 12.5 million the following four years.

Those numbers aren’t crazy, but they are a big risk for an outfielder that has only hit 20 home runs once in his career and has never had a 90 RBI season. Rios makes up for some of that by being a very good defensive right fielder with a great arm, but he also is known for brain cramps during games and an apparent lazy attitude. While you can’t always tell what a player is thinking, Rios does not come across as a player whose head is always in the game. He also has that easy going style that makes you wonder how committed he is to hard work and just how much he cares about winning. I do not mean to be hard on Rios since he is a decent ballplayer with plenty of upside, but there is a great risk that he is not a $12 million per season player.

It is becoming very evident that the Jays will tighten with their payroll and they have holes to fill on their team. They also have two very important players in Scutaro and Barajas that will be free agents after this season. If the Rios money is used to help resign those players and fill another need then letting Rios go makes sense for the team. He may well thrive in Chicago, but with the budget that Rogers appears to be setting for the Jays he is no longer a luxury that they can afford. This team is no longer just making baseball moves. Each player transaction is now also a budget move and at this moment budget needs trump baseball needs.

An unfortunate thing when looking at the Jays and where they are going is that I have lost complete faith in JP Ricciardi. I do not necessarily mean that as in his ability to judge baseball players, but more in his desire to tell the truth to the fans. I have documented his dishonesty before, but the Rios case was another prime example.

When Rios was claimed by the Sox a few days ago Ricciardi claimed it was a non story. He hid behind the truth that many players go on waivers this time of year and that Rios was no different. It is true that many players go on waivers, but what was not true was that Rios was no different. The truth was evident when Ricciardi stopped his statement there and let the issue hang over the weekend. If it was business as usual, Ricciardi would have added that Rios would only be moved if a good baseball trade presented itself. Instead he let the half truth hang in the air and it was sad to see that Rios was surprised when the Jays let him go. Sad in that Ricciardi is obviously not being honest with his players and that is not the way to build loyalty.

Ricciardi now talks about the flexibility this salary dump gives the Jays. Of course he does not use the term salary dump, but at the moment that is exactly what it is. Maybe they will use the money in the off season to resign Scutaro and Barajas and pick up another bat for the outfield, maybe they won’t. We just don’t know and that makes it harder to care.

The problem is Jays fans no longer have someone speaking on behalf of the team that they can trust.

NFL Pool Coming UP

2009-08-09T12:15:00.001-04:00

We’re just about a month away from the start of NFL season and I plan on adding NFL commentary as we get into the season.

Also, I’m interested in running a little pool for anybody that would like to take part. No cash or prizes, just pride and I’ll keep track of the results. What I plan on doing is sending out the lines for the following week once they are set and then anybody that wants to take part can just email me back their picks before the first game each week.

Instead of having people pick all the games, I’m thinking that maybe people just pick their top 5 games, but let me know what you think. If the majority would rather pick all games then we’ll do it that way.

Feel free to pass this idea on to your friends and please have anyone interested in taking part send me an email to jplaudis@rogers.com

When you send me the email please let me know if you prefer a Pick 5 approach or whether you'd rather pick all the games. I will not publish anyone’s email address and will only use the address for this purpose.

Just to let you know about my football leanings, my top three teams are San Francisco, Cleveland and Buffalo. With the Niner’s I go back to the John Brodie days and with the Browns I was cheering through all the heartbreak of the Brian Sipe years. As for the Bills, they’re just the closest to a local team that we have so they’ve kind of grown on me.

Bettman's Slippery Slope

2009-08-07T16:22:00.000-04:00

I think Bettman took a major hit this week when Judge Baum ruled that Jim Balsillie can take part in the September 10 auction for the Phoenix Coyotes. Bettman still has a couple of cards to play but Balsillie has progressed much further then he ever thought possible.

The major advantage that Balsillie had was that this sale was put in the hands of the judge and he rejected the NHL’s initial request to invalidate the bankruptcy. That forced Bettman to play his game in public and it also called his bluff on there being four potential purchasers interested in keeping the Coyotes in Phoenix.

The judge has tried to respect the NHL’s desire to keep the team in Phoenix and the Glendale lease. His ruling was to hold an auction for only those interested in keeping the team in Glendale first, and only if that failed would he permit an auction for those wishing to relocate the team.

What possibly surprised Bettman was that no suitable bid came forward to keep the team in Phoenix by the deadline for that auction. The Reinsdorf bid was basically a no cash offer that did not pay off the major creditors and required concessions and an out clause from Glendale that they can not give. As a result the major creditor, SOF Investments, did not back that bid and all parties requested that the first auction be delayed.

At the same time Bettman had the NHL’s board reject Balsillie’s application to be an owner. With that rejection he sought to have the judge remove Balsillie from any auction and even suggested that no second auction was necessary since there were no longer any qualified buyers for a relocation auction. The judge didn’t exactly go along with this idea and he has now consolidated both auctions into one and has specifically permitted Balsillie to participate. One of the reasons he agreed to Balsillie taking part in that auction is that the major creditor has stated that at present Balsillie’s bid is their preferred choice.

If the bids stand as they are today the judge may well have to select Balsillie’s bid since it is the only one that will pay off the major creditors. I can not see how Bettman or the NHL will let it get to that point. At that point the NHL could not block Balsillie without entering into a long and costly legal battle during which time they would likely have to fund the team. Getting into that fight would not be smart for the NHL since Balsillie would have nothing to lose while the NHL would have everything to lose.

What would not surprise me is to see a new relocation bid enter the auction for either Kansas City or Las Vegas at the last minute. Such a bid may even involve Reinsdorf as an owner. The NHL would pre-approve the owner of the new bid in the same manner as it already approved Reinsdorf. If this new bid was close to Balsillie’s it would likely be accepted by the judge since it would provide less uncertainty for the creditors. Bettman would be able to duck responsibility for abandoning Phoenix since it would be the judge, not the NHL, that selected the bid.

The hearings next Tuesday will be interesting to see what issues the judge wants resolved prior to the September auction. My guess is that one item will be an agreement on a relocation fee. That requirement would scare the heck out of the NHL and may force Bettman to start looking for that second relocation bid, or to look at a way to make a deal with Balsillie.

This situation is far from over and gives us something to watch during the dog days of August.

Character Over Skill

2009-08-06T09:14:00.001-04:00

It was sad to see the Rangers walk away from the Nikolai Zherdev arbitration ruling and not have anyone jump up to sign him. On paper, Zherdev is exactly the type of player that the Leafs would love to add to their team. He’s young (24), has the size (6’2, 205), has tons of speed, one on one skills and scoring ability. On paper he would be a perfect fit as a first line winger.

The only problem is that Zherdev appears to lack the character and drive to be part of a winning NHL team. It was telling that Russia chose to invite the Leafs Nikolai Kulemin to their summer Olympic camp but left Zherdev off the list. At 24 you have to wonder how deep the character flaws are that prevent even the Olympic squad from inviting him to take part in their camp.

I would think that Burke has taken a close look at Zherdev and may well be shaking his head at how such a talent can just let it slip away. If there is any way that he believes that Zherdev can turn his attitude around under the guidance of Wilson you know that he would love to add him to the team. Hopefully Zherdev can find that drive, but it doesn’t look like the Leafs think their tough love approach would work with him.

I enjoyed listening to Burke this week talking about the team and how he approaches players. I like that he believes in treating players fairly, but that does not mean that he believes in treating players equally. Now that Pogge has fallen down to number four on their goaltending depth chart he will do whatever he can to move him to a team where he will have a better opportunity. The reason for doing this is that Burke described Pogge as a good kid with a good attitude. For that type of person Burke has shown that he is willing to make moves to help the player. Burke also said that if a player is an “a-hole” then he would not care and would have the kid tough it out. That approach is not equal to everyone, but I agree that it is fair and it builds loyalty.

I am having a hard time keeping a pessimistic view of the Leafs this year. Since we are only in the first year of the rebuild we should be looking at another out of the playoff season and a high draft pick, but I don’t feel that is going to happen. It looks like Burke and Wilson will have a team that will have players motivated to perform to keep their roster spots. Burke keeps talking about eliminating the sense of entitlement that the Leaf players have felt for years. That will make them a hungry team and therefore a tough team to play against.

A part of me would like to see them swing a deal for a top six forward, but I also see the wisdom of keeping room on the roster to give the younger players something to shoot for. This year we will see if Tlusty and Kulemin are top six forwards, and if Grabovski really belongs as a center on one of the top two lines. We will also start to see where Bozak, Gustavsson and Hanson fit in as NHL players. A bit further away are Stalberg, Stefanovich, Didomenico and Kadri who all have potential to be major contributors in two to three years.

With this depth of forwards on the rise you can see why Burke would be very hesitant to take a flyer on a player like Zherdev. Neither Burke nor Wilson will tolerate a player that tries to float by on skill alone. I believe that this year we will see a team that we can not only cheer for, but also be proud of.

Coyotes Auction, Clearer or Muddier?

2009-08-04T08:33:00.001-04:00

Not much happening in the world of sports during August so we’ve been following the Coyotes sale a bit closer the last few days.

Things did get interesting Friday when leaked confidential information provided us with insight into the concessions that Reinsdorf is looking to get from Glendale. The first part of the concessions is the desire to create a special tax zone around the arena which will hopefully bring in $23 million per year in additional revenue for the Coyotes. This revenue would be generated by a special 11% sales tax in the area which would go to the Coyotes. One of the first objections to this proposal came from the owners of the Phoenix Cardinals NFL team since their stadium is in that area as well and their fans would be hit by the tax when they go for pre or post game meals. It appears that the strategy of an additional tax on the public is way for Glendale to get around directly subsidizing the Coyotes. With the economic climate in Phoenix you have to wonder what effect an additional 11% tax would have on the businesses in the area. In addition there has been some talk that Glendale may have to makeup any shortfalls in this additional revenue if the sales taxes fall short.

The other part of the Reinsdorf bid is that he is asking for an out clause should the Coyotes not be profitable after five years. The reported request is that if the Coyotes are not profitable after that time, then Glendale would subsidize up to $15 million per year of losses, or permit the team to be sold and moved. The idea of subsidizing future losses will not be an easy sell to the taxpayers so the out clause may well have to be moved up to a shorter period of time.

The other big difficulty with the Reinsdorf bid is that he is not offering cash to the creditors, but instead is only willing to assume and restructure the debt. The largest creditor, SOF Investments (owned by Michael Dell), stated that they are only interested in being paid out in full and oppose the Reinsdorf bid as it is currently structured.

The NHL is now making noises that Reinsdorf may be frustrated in the process and may pull out due to the obstacles of Moyes and Balsillie. Glendale is also positioning the leak of this confidential information as potentially causing Reinsdorf to pull out. To me it appears that Reinsdorf may pull out because the creditors won’t accept his no cash bid and the Glendale concessions that he was looking for are not attainable. Glendale may well realize this and are now setting up Moyes for a damages law suit due to the leak of information.

The Ice Edge boys are still plugging along, but there approach makes no sense to me. Gretzky being a cornerstone of their bid and their interest in giving him a longer term coaching contract makes no sense. They also state that they are not looking for an out clause in the Glendale lease and again that does not suggest a well thought out plan.

Despite the NHL voting Balsillie down as a potential owner, the judge referred to Balsillie’s bid as the “highest and best” bid he has seen so far. On Wednesday the judge is supposed to rule on what will happen with a relocation auction, or if he will combine both auctions into one.
Right now the “keep the team in Phoenix bids” are not looking strong so it may be time for Bettman to get additional relocation bids in place to compete with Balsillie. We should know more about how the judge views Balsillie’s status in these proceedings in a couple of days.

Raptors Roster Almost Set

2009-07-31T09:44:00.001-04:00

Colangelo’s signing of Nesterovic and trading for Belinelli this week have the Raptors down to one roster spot to fill before training camp.

The Nesterovic signing makes complete sense for the team. Rasho is a true professional and brings the team an experienced backup for Bargnani. He will also be able to mentor Bargnani on the nuances of playing center and it will help Bargnani develop by practicing against Nesterovic every day. Rasho will only be asked to contribute 6 to 12 minutes a game and at this point of his career this is a role that he will be very comfortable with. The fact that Rasho loves the city is a positive as well.

The trading of George for Belinelli makes sense in that you are trading an older player that will be leaving after the year for a young player with potential. It does however worry me in that we now have to find a back up for Turkoglu at small forward. I liked George as a chance of pace defensive presence to sub in for Turkoglu. With his departure we no longer have that.

One thing that I have heard talked about in the media is that Bargnani may see some minutes at the small forward spot. I think would be a terrible mistake. Bargnani succeeded last year when he was finally cemented into the lineup as a center. He needs to learn that position and develop that mindset. Jerking him around by sliding him into the three spot on occasion would be a major step back in his development.

What I do like is that I believe Colangelo sees the need for a tough back up three and will try to fill it instead of trying to bring Delfino back. Delfino would have been excess depth for the team and with Belinelli on board that is even more the case now.

Belinelli is an interesting addition to the team. The Raptors now have a glut of depth at the two spot with DeRozan, Wright and Belinelli. Jack is also expected to play some minutes there so it will be interesting to see if DeRozan or Wright will be looked at for minutes at the three.

Belinelli has been a target of Colangelo for the past year so I am sure that he has plans for how the team will use him. At the very least he will give the team a shooter that will change the look of the offense when he subs in for DeRozan. Wright is also on the last year of his contract so the plan may be for Belinelli to be the backup two once he leaves. That would leave the team with Calderon, Jack, DeRozan and Belinelli to share the minutes at the guard positions once Wright is gone and that looks like a pretty solid and deep backcourt.

My worry for this year is how Triano works out the rotation, but having too much depth is better then being short as the Raptors were last year. Let’s see what the final piece of the puzzle is and then we can start trying to figure out the rotation.

Rogers Jays Views Clearing Up

2009-07-29T09:53:00.001-04:00

All you had to hear yesterday was the comment from Rogers that their objective is to bring costs more in line with the revenue that the Jays bring in. That statement says that Jays will not be increasing their budget and in fact are looking to decrease their budget to bring it more in line with revenues.

Rogers appears to be taking the view that the Jays are just another business division and want to improve the look of the financial statements. This approach sheds an additional bit of light on the buyout of BJ Ryan. Granted Ryan had lost the ability to be a closer and was no longer of value to the club, but it did seem strange that they would just pre-pay the balance of his contract and allow him to sign with another team instead of trying to rehab him themselves.

However, when you look at it from the perspective of corporate financial statements it begins to make sense. On the financial statements the buyout of BJ Ryan is treated as a one time expense and your salary figures magically decrease. When an investor or potential buyer looks at the financial statements they discount one time expenses and are more concerned about how ongoing expenses such as salary compare to projected revenues. This really is no different then a company laying-off a division which is treated as a one time expense and therefore improves the look of projected expenses.

In the grander scheme of things this speaks volumes of how Rogers plans to run the Jays in the future. We can expect the salary budget to decrease and the team to move to a small market model.

As this approach becomes more obvious you hear the fans scream that Rogers is being greedy. They point out that Toronto is the number four market in US/Canada and the budget should be set accordingly. What the fans are choosing to ignore is that Toronto is not really a baseball city. While the Jays are in the fourth largest market, they only have the 23rd best attendance in baseball. In attendance, the Jays are four spots behind Arizona and are just ahead of Kansas City and Tampa.

The reason I’m comparing the Jays attendance to those teams is that they are markets that we as Canadians consider not being able to support a hockey team. Those areas almost define the term “small market”. In the world of baseball, Toronto is really in that group of cities. The reality is that the Jays are not supported by the fans in a way that would let them compete budget wise with the Yankees and the Red Sox.

Some argue that if you spend the money and improve the product the fans will come out. Well the Jays had a tremendous start to this season but that was not reflected in team attendance. If it were your money would you take that chance? The owner, Rogers, is a publicly traded company and as such they have to answer to their investors. It is looking quite clear that they are not prepared to take that chance.

Right now Rogers appears focused on sprucing up the balance sheet. The fans will not like this, but the investment analysts will and that is who Rogers is choosing to please when it comes to managing the Jays.

For Jays fans, the best hope for success on the field might well be new ownership. If we want to dream, the ultimate hope may for a new ownership group led by Paul Beeston.

Primeau Pickup

2009-07-28T08:05:00.001-04:00

The Leafs trade adding Wayne Primeau and a second round pick for Stralman, Stuart and a seventh round is a solid trade that begins to clear a bit of the log jam on the backend.

The biggest part of the trade is the Leafs sending Stralman to Calgary in return for their 2nd round draft choice next year. With this summer’s additions Stralman was the 9th or 10th defenseman on the depth chart so he was not going to see much time with the big club. At 22, I still like his offensive potential but he was not part of the long term plans. Picking up a 2nd round pick for him is a good move and it replaces the 2nd round pick that Toronto sent to Montreal for Grabovski.

Up front Toronto sends Stuart and their 7th round pick in 2011 to Calgary for Primeau. In flipping Primeau for Stuart the Leafs add size, experience and flexibility. At 6’4, 225 he has the size that Burke likes and he can either center the checking line or move over to left wing to add size and grit where needed as the season moves on. Primeau is also a strong penalty killer so that helps the team improve in an area that was a big concern last year. It also helps that he has experience playing for Wilson and is looking forward to working for him again.

With the youth that Toronto is working into their lineup a player like Primeau makes quite a bit of sense. He will be good in the dressing room and he can mix into any line that needs added size from time to time. The deal works long term as well since he is on the last year of his contract. Should he remain healthy and have a solid year he may well be an attractive commodity for Burke to move to a contenting team at the trade deadline if the Leafs are sellers. If he is not moved, he joins the long list of Leaf forwards with expiring contracts giving the team flexibility at the end of the year.

Burke would still like to move one of his defensemen to get down to eight. By moving Stralman I see the Leafs holding on to White for his offense.

The deal was minor, but it works for the Leafs on several levels.

This and That

2009-07-26T09:49:00.001-04:00

A few thoughts from the past week in the world of sports.

If Tom Watson had won The Open last Sunday I think that would have been the most amazing sports accomplishment that I have ever seen. It was sad to see Tom lose, especially since he hit a perfect 8 iron to the green on 18. The thought that comes to mind however is; what does Tom’s success this year and Norman’s run last year say about golf at The Open? My thought is that golf at The Open is golf at its truest, but it is not as much of an athletic competition as the other majors are. Here golf is not about who’s physical skills are at their best during the week. At The Open, golf is not so much a game of pure physical skill as it is an examination of a player’s experience, character and composure. The physical component is of course important, but it is not so much about who hits it the best, but more about who hits it the smartest.

I’ve already written about the Halladay situation, but I for one am looking forward to a trade. I don’t think the Jays will ever decide to compete financially with the Yankees and Red Sox, so I’m looking forward to watching young prospects develop. That takes me back to some of the purity of the sport that is often only evident in spring training when you see players battle for the last roster spots on the team. I find it interesting to watch a player progress through the minors and see them finally make it to the big leagues. Halladay’s own journey was a joy for Jays fans to watch where he overcame various hurdles to develop into an all star and the most sought after target at the trade deadline. If the trade does happen, Halladay will be one of the former Toronto players that I will root for no matter where he goes.

It appears that the Leafs are more set for the coming season then I had thought. I tend to believe Burke and this week he stated again that Kaberle is unlikely to be moved. His goal now is trading a couple of the Leafs lesser defensemen for futures. This type of strategy is less exciting for fans to talk about and me to write about, but it does make quite a bit of sense. Keeping Kaberle leaves Toronto with one of the best groups of defensemen in the conference. Their top two pairings will be Kaberle and Komisarek, followed by Schenn and Beauchemin. Regardless of which two defenders they trade, they will still be left with two competent proven NHL players for the third pair and experienced depth behind them. From a value perspective, the two most likely players to be traded are Van Ryn and White. If the Leafs keep Kaberle, neither of the two figure in the long term plans and both are in the final year of their contracts. Picking up draft picks for these two would put the Leafs in a great position for next year’s draft and give them depth in picks for future trades. By not adding to forward depth now, the Leafs will get to evaluate what their youngsters can do. Next year will likely be makeover time for the forward unit with Stempniak, Ponikarovski, Stajan and Mayers all entering the last year of their contracts.

A quick tip of the hat to Argo coach Bart Andrus for telling Arland Bruce to stay home. Its nice to see a coach stand up to a star player when their behavior is not in the best interests of the team. Sad however not to hear a word from Adam Rita backing up his coach. I have no doubt that Burke would stand up for Wilson, or Colangelo for Triano.

Ricciardi Going Down Ugly

2009-07-24T10:10:00.001-04:00

You really have to wonder about Ricciardi sometimes. Ok, you should wonder about him often, but his performance regarding Halladay is disgusting.

This is not the first time that Ricciardi has displayed a lack of common sense and arrogance. Last summer he angered many Canadian baseball fans by calling Scott Richmond up from the minors just a few days before he was to be part of Canada’s team at the Olympics. The Jays were not in a pennant race and it would have been a great experience for Richmond to represent his country at the Olympics. It also would have greatly helped Canada’s Olympic chances.

Ricciardi’s defense was that it’s the dream of any kid to be in the majors. That’s true, but also very insensitive to the country that he is a GM in. Ricciardi was not ignorant of the Olympic Games since he had been a member of the US Olympic baseball selection committee and he should have had some sense as to how important Olympic success could have been for Canada. He shrugged his shoulders and gave his arrogant response. Within three weeks of being called up to the majors, and missing the Olympics, Richmond was returned to the minors.

That episode came a couple of months after Ricciardi embarrassed Toronto with his comments about Adam Dunn on a call in show. Instead of offering a classy response to a fan questioning whether the Jays had interest in trading for Dunn, Ricciardi attacked the fan and Dunn by stating that Dunn did not really like baseball and did not have passion to play the game. Interesting comments when you consider the signing of players like Wells and Rios, but I digress. Ricciardi’s comments on a simple call in show embarrassed the organization and made the Jays look like a backwoods small time operation. He ended up apologizing to Dunn, who responded by saying that he didn’t even know who Ricciardi was. At the moment, Dunn is batting .274 with 24 HR and 65 RBI (which is tied for 5th and 10th respectively in the majors).

Now Ricciardi is trying to make Halladay look like the bad guy by inferring that Halladay forced the Jays hand by stating that he was going to explore the free agency market after 2010. This revelation came a week after Ricciardi chose to start all the trade speculation by going public with the comment that he would listen to trade offers for Halladay. Of course a week ago he stated that nothing had changed and that was just business as usual. But now the story is that Halladay started this process and in a sense infers that Halladay is not being loyal to the Jays.

Where is Ricciardi’s grip on reality if he thinks that he has a chance of being believed? Halladay has been a loyal soldier for the Jays for years and has been the ace on a team that has never had a chance at the playoffs without complaining. He is now nearing his final contract and he wants a chance to pitch for a team with a chance to compete. Do the fans find this unreasonable, or Halladay is disloyal? Not in the slightest, but that’s not stopping Ricciardi from trying to cast a shadow over Halladay.

What Ricciardi’s arrogance does not accept is that he has no credibility left in the Toronto market. He basically sold much of that credibility with his famous quote a few years ago when he was caught in a lie. At that time his explanation was that “It’s not a lie, if I know the truth”. Sounds like Clinton doesn’t it? He likely should have been shown the door at that moment, but for some reason Godfrey defended him.

With his comments about Halladay, Ricciardi may well have started a firestorm that will force him out sooner rather than later. Of course in his arrogance, Ricciardi is trying to spin a story that he is not sure whether he even wants to remain with the Jays past his current contract.

Are his comments true, or are they a lie? The sad thing is we don’t care anymore when it comes to Ricciardi. It is time for Beeston to do something about him before this feeling spreads and the fans stop caring about the Jays.

Dominic Moore: A Case Study

2009-07-23T09:02:00.001-04:00

The handling of the Dominic Moore situation has been a great illustration of how Brian Burke looks at building a hockey team and how he evaluates players.

Dominic Moore is a great hockey player to have on your team. He is a solid checking center that brings energy to your team and has a great work ethic. His style quickly makes him a fan favorite and when given the opportunity he can put points on the board. Last season he had a “breakout” year with the Leafs and put 41 points on the board in 63 games. He was about to become a free agent at the end of last season and as the trade deadline approached Burke had to decide whether they would re-sign him.

Under past management this decision would have been a slam dunk. A 28 year old fan favorite coming off a career year would be guaranteed a big raise. Burke offered Moore in the range of $1.5 million a year on a three year deal while Moore was looking to get between $2 and $2.5 million per year. Why not bite the bullet and sign Moore to the contract he wanted since his career is on an upswing and the difference is less then $1 million per season?

The reason is that Burke is building a cup contender.

Burke realized that Moore’s “breakout” season came on a bad Leaf team when Moore was playing center on the second line. This meant that he was playing with wings that could score and he was also seeing time on the power play where he scored 4 of his 13 goals. On a contending team Moore would not be close to a top six forward and his numbers would slide back to where they usually were. In fact when he was traded to Buffalo at the deadline he went back to being a bottom six player and his point production dropped to 4 points in the last 18 games.

This is not to suggest that Moore is a bad hockey player. The point is that he is a responsible energy player that could center a third or fourth line on a contending team. I use the term “could” center that line because there are many players that can fill that role. That role however is not worth $2 million plus per year on a three year deal.

Instead of signing Moore to an inflated contract or just letting him walk at the end of the season, Burke traded him to the Sabres for a second round draft choice. The Leafs then went out this off season and signed Rickard Wallin to fill that spot. With Wallin they only had to make a one year commitment which gives them flexibility should one of the kids develop and be ready to take a roster spot. If that doesn’t happen it will not be hard to find a replacement for that role next summer.

Was Burke correct in his assessment of Moore? Well it appears the other NHL teams agree since Moore has yet to find a team to sign with for next year. Moore and his agent will likely have to end up agreeing with Burke’s assessment of his worth and sign a contract with some other team that might not be as attractive as what he was offered by the Leafs.

The end result is that Leafs received the Sabres second round pick which they used to draft Jesse Blacker, a tough 18 year old defenseman from the Windsor Spitfires. They then signed Wallin to a one year contract replacing Moore without committing valuable cap space on an inflated three year deal.

A small move overall and one not noticed by many, but that is exactly how you go about building a contender.

Jack Filling Out Roster

2009-07-22T07:55:00.000-04:00

The signing of Jarrett Jack is not a blockbuster, but it may well be the piece that solidifies a playoff spot for the Raptors this season. Jack is the perfect piece to provide depth for the backcourt and insurance for the Raptors most vulnerable position.

First off Jack is a competent starting point guard that came into his own last season. He began last year as the backup point for the Pacers and beat out TJ Ford to become the starter as the season wore on. Jack is a quick and physical point that will provide a good change of pace from the more controlled style of Jose Calderon. Jack is a better defender then Calderon so he is pretty much the perfect complement at the point. He is also a quality person and just the type of person that Colangelo likes to add to the organization.

At 6’3 Jack can also play the two spot so we can expect to see him and Calderon share the court at times during the season. He will be the first guard off the bench and should put in 25 to 30 minutes a game.

The other important thing about this signing is that the Raptors now have a fall back plan if Calderon gets injured. Last year the team fell apart without Calderon in the lineup and he was rushed back from injury. As a result he never fully recovered physically and the team suffered even when he came back into the lineup. Should Calderon get hurt again this season Jack is fully capable of running the team for a three or four week stretch.

Ukic was rushed last year and will take a step back in playing time. For the Raptors he would only be the third point so Colangelo is exploring trade options for him. With four year commitments to Calderon and Jack there really is not a long term fit for Ukic here. I could see him develop into a solid player with a non-playoff team where he can earn serious minutes as the back up point guard.

Colangelo would love to find someone to take Marcus Banks’ salary off his hands but that will be a challenge since he has two more years left on his contract. Douby is the other player without a role but would be a fine third point guard if Ukic and Banks are moved.

From my perspective this signing further decreases the need to bring Delfino back and I would hate to see the Raptors tie up future cap space by signing him to a long term deal. The last word form Colangelo is that he would like to bring Delfino back, but he would rather overpay a little on a one year deal then commit to a multi year deal.

The last piece is another big man and Nesterovic is still in the Raptors sights. He would be a very important for the team and be able to chip in 8 to 12 minutes a game, grab some rebounds, play defense against some of the bigger centers and eat up some fouls. If he is not signed by the end of the month look for the Raptors to make a move to sign another back up big man.

A minor side point in the Jack signing is that he and Bosh are former teammates at Georgia Tech and still good friends. Jack’s signing will not be the tipping point in trying to retain Bosh, but it definitely does not hurt.

Canucks Work Hard to Stand Pat

2009-07-21T07:45:00.000-04:00

The big story of free agency was Vancouver’s battle to keep the Sedins at a reasonable price and term. The Canucks declined the initial Sedin request for a twelve year deal and the twins finally agreed to identical five year deals just before free agency was set to begin.

This signing commits the Canucks to having the twins as the cornerstones of their top line for the next five years. What this likely does is guarantee the Canucks a playoff team, but it does not help them climb the next hurdle. While they managed to re-sign the twins, they lost their top defender Mattias Ohlund who had been the anchor of their defense for the past decade.

Even with that loss the top two defense pairings will be very competent for this season. A player to watch here is Alexander Edler who signed a four year extension last fall. He is only 23 and could develop into a puck moving two way defender with an offensive flair to replace Ohlund. Shane O’Brien will also be given the opportunity to crack the top four as the season progresses and could eventually replace Willie Mitchell who is a UFA after this season.

Upfront we have much the same team as last year. The Sedins will continue to be the face of the team and Gillis is counting on them to continue to grow and become a more dominant force up front. The Sundin experiment really wasn’t much of a success and talk about his potential return is refreshingly non-existent. The Canucks are hoping that Cody Hodgson can make the jump to the big team and take over his spot as the second line center. Hodgson was the Canadian junior hockey player of the year, but the jump to a top six forward spot in the NHL is never a sure thing.

Kessler, Burrows and Demitra fill out a solid top two lines. Wellwood is also available as the second line center if Hodgson is not ready to take on that role from day one. Mikael Samuelsson was a good pick up and together with Steve Bernier gives the team depth down the right side. Darcy Hordichuk fills the role of agitator and enforcer for Vancouver.

Still left on the to-do list for Gillis is signing Luongo to a contract extension. Luongo has one more year left on his contract, but they want to get the extension agreed to before it becomes any sort of distraction. The back up role is interesting and may see some movement. The Canucks already have Cory Schneider who is projected by most as a number one goalie and could either serve as backup, play another year in the minors, or be used as trade bait since the team signed Raycroft to a one year deal this off season. I would not be surprised if Schneider is being shopped, but in all likelihood he will not be moved until Luongo’s contract extension is done.

Overall Vancouver is a team that is hard to define. They are a hard working team and have a franchise goalie that can cover many shortcomings. On special teams they are right in the middle on both the power play and penalty killing. The defense will miss Ohlund so as usual much will depend on the Sedins continuing to grow and whether Hodgson can make an impact as a rookie.

The Canucks seem a lock for the playoffs but could fall behind the Flames in their division. Gillis should try to lock up Luongo this off season so that a slow start does not scuttle his efforts to resign him.

Oil Change Delayed

2009-07-20T09:06:00.000-04:00

The biggest story this off season for Edmonton is the trade that wasn’t, or at least isn’t yet. Once Heatley’s trade demand gathered momentum it was the Oilers that came up with a trade offer that the Senators found acceptable. The trade would have moved Heatley to the Oilers in exchange for Cogliano, Penner and Smid. This trade would have moved out the large contract of Penner though it would have cost them a highly valued player in Cogliano. The trade could have helped both teams.

Heatley however continued his selfish behavior by finally refusing the trade and as of now that trade is dead. What is unfortunate is that the three young Oilers know that they were on the verge of being shipped out by their team. The Oilers are a team that relies on cohesion and you hope that this almost trade is not a distraction for the team.

Upfront the team is solid and has young players on the way up. Gagner and Horcroff give the team a solid one two punch and will likely be the core centers for the next few years. Cogliano at 22 is the number three center and like Gagner he is a small high skill center that is growing into his potential. The problem for the Oilers is that both are RFA’s after this season and both will command serious salary increases. The Oilers are a budget conscious team and that is what made Cogliano expendable in the Heatley trade talks. Cogliano has very high value and I can see the Oilers still being willing to move him for that reason.

On the wings they have a nice mix with O’Sullivan and Hemsky as fast scoring wingers. Penner and Moreau add grit with a scoring touch and there are still hopes that Nilsson develops into an offensive force. If Heatley was in the mood to play here, he would have been a great fit for this fast, young, exciting team that despite the talent had problems scoring goals.

The concern on defense is that they do not have true stay at home defensemen in the mix. What they do have are players that move the puck up the ice quickly so the Oilers remain an offense first team first. Considering the offensive focus of the defense it is surprising that the Oilers only ranked 22nd on the power play last year. Special teams are a big concern for the team since their penalty kill was 4th worst in the league.

The one big free agent signing that the team did make was to sign Khabibulin to replace Roloson in net. This signing is really a wash as far as performance goes since you can not knock the goaltending that Roloson has provided. The risk here is that Khabibulin is 36 years old and Edmonton signed him to a 4 year contract at $3.75 million per season. That’s quite the long term commitment to a 36 year old goalie that relies on reflexes and acrobatics.

The Oilers should be an exciting team to watch again and are loaded with young talent that will continue to develop. To move up in the standings they need to improve their special teams and pick up a stay at home defenseman.

As they sit today, I do not see them cracking the playoffs in the tough Western conference.

Flames Pour on More D

2009-07-19T08:08:00.001-04:00

Calgary made the biggest move of free agency by jumping ahead of the line to swing the deal with Florida to obtain a few days of exclusive negotiating rights with Bouwmeester. Sutter has to be congratulated for his courage to take that gamble and then successfully negotiating the contract before July 1. At 25 Bouwmeester is the new breed of young free agent and he would have been the most sought after one this year.

What Sutter has done is add top notch depth to the area where the Flames already were the strongest. In an era where teams are looking for one or two top flight defenders, the Flames now have four quality horses back there. Bouwmeester, Regehr, Phaneuf and Sarich give Calgary the deepest defense in the NHL. These four will eat up the minutes in a dominating fashion with the smallest of the group standing at 6’3. Bouwmeester and Phaneuf give each pair an offensive edge while Regehr and Sarich are rocks on defense.

While there is nothing negative to be said about the makeup of this defense, the only concern is whether Sutter is investing too much of his cap on the back end. Including Kiprusoff’s salary, the Flames have $26.5 million of the cap committed to five players focused on keeping the puck out of the net. What does that leave them with up front?

Iginla has always been the focus on offense, but with that amount of money committed to the back end there is precious little left to provide him with support. The team was already thin up front last year, but the signing of Bouwmeester made it impossible for the Flames to keep Cammalleri or to sign a skilled replacement for the top two lines. Cammalleri was a great compliment for Iginla and his 39 goals will be missed.

The Flames can still put together a strong first line but there is not much left to provide a threat from any of their other lines. This allows the opposition to focus on shutting down Iginla’s line. The problem is intensified in that Iginla does not have a true playmaking center to play with so he often has to create his own scoring chances as well as put the puck in the net. With Iginla’s style of play the season becomes long without a threat from the other lines and he can get pretty worn down come playoff time.

While very thin at the wings, the Flames do have Jokinen and Langkow as their top two centers. Jokinen was a late addition last year and the team is counting on him to take some of the scoring pressure off Iginla. He has the size and skill to be a great fit for Calgary and should be motivated since he will be a UFA at the end of the year. Langkow will also be counted on to provide scoring and he is the only center with a contract beyond this year so expect changes next year.

Kiprusoff is still one of the top goalies in the game but he could use more rest during the season. While the Flames may not be able to cut back much on the number of games he plays, the defense should be able to make his life a little easier between the pipes.

Brent Sutter takes over the coaching of the team so you know that he will be in step with his brother.

While it appears that the Flames are set with the big four on defense, I would have liked to see Sutter try to move Phaneuf for additional scoring up front. The Flames will again rely on Iginla to drive the offense and hope that Jokinen can take some of that burden off him.

Calgary should not have a problem making the playoffs this year, but with the strength of the conference I do not see them cracking the top four.

Major Hab Makeover

2009-07-18T08:20:00.001-04:00

Montreal’s centennial season went from hopes of a Stanley Cup run to one where they barely squeezed into the playoffs and then were blown out in the first round. The result has been a complete makeover this summer. The changes do not end with the players, but Gainey brought in Jacques Martin to coach the new team.

The makeover began just before the trade deadline with Montreal making a trade with the Rangers to pick up Scott Gomez. That move is as a tremendous gamble for the club since that ties up over $7.3 million of cap space for the next five years. When Gomez signed with the Rangers it was a surprise since he was not considered to be a player that craved the spotlight. In Montreal, the pressure on him will only increase.

In free agency the Habs added Cammalleri and Gionta to bolster the offense. Both have flair and speed, but at 5’9 and 5’7 they join Gomez at 5’11 leaving Montreal with extremely small skill players. The three also tie up over $18 million in cap space for the next five years. You have to wonder if Gainey would not have been better off trading for Lecavalier and his $10 million per year salary. Their next skilled center is Tomas Plekanc who is 5’10 and leaves them small up the middle. The only grit on the top two lines will come from Latendresse and he may well have play on the top line to provide some balance.

Yes the Habs added firepower with the signings, but they lost Koivu, Kovalev and Higgins and will not be bringing back Tanguay or Lang. Some of the poison from last year’s dressing room has been removed, but I am not sure if the overall changes are an improvement.

On defense they continued with the change of personality by letting Komisarek go in free agency and will not be resigning Schneider. Spacek and Mara have been brought in and should help offensively, but neither is a defensive standout. To help with the penalty kill and deal with bigger forwards 6’7 Hal Gill was added, but at over $2 million per year you are paying quite a bit for a third pair defenseman.

In goal Montreal will again go with the young duo of Price and Halak. Going without an experienced back up was a big gamble for Gainey that did not work well last year. The pressure got to Price and his confidence disappeared. His glove side weakness was exposed and he did not have the veteran back up that he could lean on, or learn from. No changes have been made in goal and Montreal is hoping that Price is over last year’s shakiness and can lead the team. In Montreal, that’s quite a bit of pressure for a youngster that will turn 22 later this summer. If Price doesn’t rebound Halak will take over. I can see one of these two being moved and a veteran back up brought in over the next year.

This season has more questions then answers for Montreal. They have totally remade the roster and dressing room, and have a new coach to run the team. The talent up front suggests a small, fast, skill team bringing back fire wagon hockey. The coaching however suggests a more conservative approach so it will be very interesting to see how this new mix comes together.

Gainey is taking a very big gamble with this year’s team. The gamble is also a long term one since very few contracts will expire at the end of the season and Montreal will have little flexibility if the pieces don’t fit. That is not good position to be in since the cap will be going down next year.

Leaf Fans, a Tainted Love

2009-07-17T09:04:00.001-04:00

Reading articles and listening to the media you constantly hear about the Leaf fans. Many paint them as pathetic in that they follow the Leafs no matter how much they lose and they pack the seats at the ACC pouring money into MLSE’s coffers no matter what the product is on the ice.

First off, Leaf Nation is not just the people that pack the ACC. Most in Leaf Nation can not get to the games, or afford the tickets. Most true Leaf fans have inherited their love of the team from parents, or from their early childhood years. For us, the Leafs are a true love, but like true love, in many cases it can be blind.

The biggest obstacle faced by the person that runs the Leafs is not the board of MSLE, but it is the blind love of many Leaf fans towards their players. In the past, we have had managers of the team that gave in to that passion of Leaf fans. The fans would fall in love with a Domi, Tucker, or McCabe, and the manager of the day would overpay to keep that player on the team. As an old manager once said; if you listen to the fans, pretty soon you’ll be sitting with the fans.

For years we have watched the Leafs go through another disappointing season and the first thing that happens is that 90% of the team gets re-signed, many with rich new contracts. The fans love their Leafs and the players become heroes whether they win or lose. Many players succumb to this adulation and start to become complacent. They become used to being treated like heroes even when they lose. Losing becomes acceptable. They may still talk about the fire they have, but they turn down trades to playoff contenders and when given the choice of where to play they choose a relaxed lifestyle in Florida as opposed to a perennial playoff contender in New Jersey.

Another type of situation is what happened with Darcy Tucker. He was a heart and soul player, but it became obvious that at age 33, and being only 5’10, he could no longer play his style effectively. The Leaf fans still chanted Darcy, Darcy and would have loved the team to keep him. Fortunately management in Toronto is changing and Tucker was bought out last year. Colorado management went for the reputation of what once was and signed Tucker for two years at an average of $2.25 million. For that they got 8 goals and 8 assists last year. Funny that Colorado finished dead last in the west last year and both the GM and coach are no longer with the team. Of course that wasn’t Tucker’s fault, but it shows what happens when you pay for reputation and past performance.

The Leafs are changing and the fans have to get used to the idea of letting their favorites leave. The days of overpaying a player by 20% because the fans love him are over. It may seem trivial to pay a player $1.2 million instead of $1 million because he’s a fan favorite. But when you spread that approach over the whole team, $40 million in salaries becomes $48 million. The costs your team the ability to sign an $8 million player and that is a very big deal.

Instead of paying a premium for players, in Detroit players often take a home town discount to stay with the team. They see the privilege of playing for the Wings and realize that if they demand a premium they will be gone. That allows Detroit to keep their nucleus and gives them the ability to add quality players to the mix.

Burke understands this approach and will manage that way. Playing for the Leafs is a privilege. Sure the Leafs have not been winners, but if you retire as part of Leaf team you will be part of a legacy that matters long after your playing days are over. Players who care about the game see that and those are the players you want on your team.

The times are a changing Leaf fans so keep an open mind as you watch some of the roster turnover as the Burke makeover continues.

Sens Up Against It

2009-07-16T08:07:00.000-04:00

From outward appearances the Heatley saga has died down, but its like that pot you forget on the back burner. The burner is still on and the water is getting pretty hot beneath the cover. Ignore it as much as you want, but its going to boil over sooner or later is you leave it too long.

Heatley blindsided the Sens in June with the trade demand and he made it worse by limiting the teams with which Murray could deal. The Sens had a very good deal worked out with Edmonton, but Heatley hummed and hawed and finally turned it down. Ottawa missed out on the start of free agency and finally made the move to pick up Kovalev to replace Heatley. The problem is that Heatley is still on the books. Now with Kovalev added, the Sens are just over the cap and have no room to move.

Can Heatley return to the team? Sure. The players would likely accept him after an apology, but Heatley has likely burned too many bridges with management, ownership and the fans. He would be under a microscope if he returned and I do not think that is something that Heatley wants to experience. You can pull this type of move in a non-hockey market, but once you do it in Ottawa I think you are pretty much done.

Heatley has also knocked down his trade value since many teams see him with a big red flag now. Strangely, it looks like the Oilers still want him, but if that deal can’t be brought back to life I do not envy the Ottawa situation.

Without Heatley the Sens have three top six forwards. That number includes Spezza who will be without his star winger and two very opposite people in Alfredsson and Kovalev. Both are 36 and we will have to see how they co-exist on the same team. Alfredsson is a heart and soul player, but his body is starting to show wear and tear. Kovalev is a talented enigma and Sens fans can only hope that he feels he has something to prove after his questionable departure from Montreal. Despite Alfredsson’s apparent excitement about Kovalev’s addition, these two may not mix well as the team hits bumps in the road. Spezza is not known as a team leader so you can not count on him being the glue of the team. His reaction to this summer’s team Canada snub will be worth watching to see if it pushes him towards a fast start to the season.

On defense they do not have a top pair defenseman on the roster. They have some serviceable players that appear to have already reached their potential, but they lack an identity. Young players like Lee and Campoli need to develop quickly and begin to take leading roles with this group.

Pascal Leclaire is the big gamble as the team’s star goalie of the future. He definitely has the potential and is young, but he has yet to put two strong back to back seasons together.

After seasons of great promise and getting close to the cup, the reality is that the Sens finished last year out of the playoffs. Having lived through decades of misplaced Leaf expectations I see some of the same delusions creeping into the world of the Sens. They are not just a tweak away from getting back to their former glory.

They need to deal with Heatley and they need to find a way to free up some cap space. Right now they appear to be gambling that things will just work out. For me that’s too big a risk to take.

Let it Blow

2009-07-15T09:44:00.001-04:00

One of the classics of the sports year begins tomorrow morning with the start of the British Open. For fans of the game, it is simply called The Open.

First off I love golf, but I also love tradition and I love nature being such a big part of this event. The other classic of golf is The Masters. It is also full of tradition and I love it in its own way. The Masters however, is a manicured tradition and was bred from a private invitation only tournament. Not only is the course and the setting manufactured to perfection, the men that run the tournament control every facet of it. At the Masters there are no fans, they are patrons, and there is no rough, it is the second cut. If a commentator makes the mistake of using the wrong word there is a good possibility that he will never be allowed back on the premises. The Masters has that controlled feeling that you might find in a museum of art. The Open, is more like a day at the frozen tundra at Lambeau Field.

The Open is golf brought back to its basics. The weather is a big part of the game and often the biggest star of the tournament. Though held in July, summer in Great Britain is usually quite different from what we see here. We have images of wind howling over the exposed course as players brace themselves for each shot. The wind becomes a factor in where you aim your shot and imagination is brought into play. Players no longer hit high shots like darts into a soft green. They must ride the wind or hit low into the wind, but they must always consider the wind and beware of the contour of the land facing them.

When we play golf here we look at the forecast and hope for a sunny day. For the Open we expect and even hope for some rain. We want to see the golfers bring out their rain gear and caps and brace down for a true fight with nature and themselves. I had my first golfing trip to Ireland a couple of years ago and was almost disappointed by the lack of “terrible” weather. As golfers, I think there is a bit of a masochist in all of us. We want to be faced with the impossible shot and we play for the feeling of conquering that moment even it is only one time out of ten.

Today’s golf pro seldom faces these challenges. They usually play on courses that have been set up perfectly for the week of the tournament. Yes those courses are long and have many man made obstacles, but usually the fairways, bunkers and greens are almost too perfect. Landing in a bunker is seldom much of a penalty and greens are almost always receptive to a shot hit at the pin. At The Open, the rules of engagement change.

The Open golf course rotation features courses that have more been carved out of nature then manufactured. The fairways are not framed by trees and they are not flat. They are hard and rolling and your ball will bounce and run in ways that you do not expect. The bounces will not always be fair. The imagination and character of the player is tested. Here the golf course is not manufactured. Here the player who must manufacture their golf shot. The low bump and run, hitting an iron on a long hole off the tee for position, battling out of knee high wild grass, putting from off the green and playing escape shots away from the hole all become part of the game.

Turnberry, where The Open is played this year, is a true classic. Located on the south west coast of Scotland it is a natural masterpiece. It is the history of golf and it is the history of the land. Turnberry was used as an airfield during WW II and it still retains that feel.

If you can find the time, sit back and slip back to the basics of sport and enjoy this weekend at The Open.

Shhh.. Big Day in Phoenix

2009-07-13T09:16:00.001-04:00

Sometimes the big days in a court case are the ones that nobody talks about. Today could well be such a day in the Coyotes case. Today is largely about where the public spotlight will be allowed to shine as the bankruptcy proceeds.

Moyes wants the Reinsdorf bid to be fully disclosed. He wants all the details of the discussions with Glendale and the NHL to be made public. As the Reinsdorf offer is about to be structured there is no money for Moyes. The Reinsdorf bid is largely about restructuring the lease with Glendale and making a deal with the outstanding creditors. Reinsdorf’s position is that neither Moyes nor Gretzky are creditors, but are in fact equity owners of the Coyotes, and as such they have no claim to the proceeds of the sale. The NHL and Glendale want Moyes and Gretzky’s records made public so that the court can determine whether Moyes and Gretzky have any claim as creditors.

The fact that the NHL is willing to accept an offer that does not pay Moyes a penny is the reason that Moyes declared bankruptcy in the first place and is why he is backing the Balsillie bid.

Balsillie and his bid are not dead yet. His bet is that nobody is willing to purchase the Coyotes with the long term intent of keeping them in Glendale. Normally he would not have a chance to make this gamble work since the NHL has been known for making backroom deals and providing future considerations for parties that it wishes to deal with.

Moyes and Balsillie won the first big battle of this case when the court ruled that the bankruptcy petition was valid and took control of the sale. This has prevented the NHL from steamrolling ahead with their plan.

What I find interesting is that the US Trustee has now entered the proceedings and is very interested in finding out what, if any, side deals are in place with the Reinsdorf offer. What sparked their interest was Bettman’s initial comment about there being three other groups interested in purchasing and keeping the team in Phoenix, followed by Daly’s big mistake in stating that the other three bids coalesced around the Reinsdorf bid. This smacks of collusion and immediately got the Trustee involved. The Trustee now wants full disclosure of who the other bidders were, why they decided not to pursue their bid and whether the NHL was involved in promoting one consolidated bid by Reinsdorf. That type of activity compromises the integrity of the bankruptcy process, undermines the concept of an open auction, and hurts the creditors. Sounds like the beginnings of some anti-trust concerns doesn’t it?

If the judge rules that the NHL, Glendale, Reinsdorf, etc. must submit to full disclosure of all matters, I think that the whole Reinsdorf offer may fall apart. I do not believe that Reinsdorf, or any other purchaser, is willing to commit to Glendale long term. I also doubt that a respected businessman like Reinsdorf will be willing to submit to such public scrutiny of his offer.

If this bid falls apart, the Phoenix only auction will likely fall apart as well. The next step in the process that the judge laid out is the September auction for parties wishing to relocate the Coyotes. That is when Balsillie steps back into the fray and that is when other legitimate bidders may pop up as well.

If on the other hand the judge rules that Moyes and Gretzky are not creditors and denies Moyes’ full disclosure motion, then the NHL, Reinsdorf and Glendale may well get to work out a deal and keep the team where it is, for a couple of years.

Let’s see what happens. Today could be a very big day.

Leafs Up Front

2009-07-11T10:24:00.000-04:00

Well I think we all like what Burke has done to rebuild the defense this off season. So while he heads off for his annual fishing week with other NHL execs, let’s have a look at where the Leafs stand up front at this moment.

The forwards are still a work in progress so we’re not sure who we will see at camp. The Leafs will trade a defenseman or two, and may well sign another free agent. Skill players like Tanguay and Afinogenov have fallen through the initial free agency frenzy and may see their price be lower then they had hoped. On the trade front players like Kessel, Sharp, Backes, Pominville, or even Vanek might be available in a deal involving Kaberle as the center piece from the Toronto side. I put Vanek on this list because he might be a salary that the Sabres may wish to get rid of, and the Leafs may be willing to pay for a 25 year old 40 goal first line winger.

With some moves yet to be made, the Leafs already have an interesting group of forwards coming to camp. At center, the current top four are Grabovski, Stajan, Wallin and Mitchell. If the Leafs feel good about Bozak stepping right in, or if they pick up a top center, I can see them moving Stajan this summer. Wallin and Mitchell should be competent third and fourth line centers. For the future we have Kadri and Didomenico though they are likely a couple of years away.

On the left side we have Ponikarovsky, Hagman, Blake, Tlusty and Stuart. I see Stuart making the team and being part of a grinding fourth line with Mitchell and Orr. Blake can still play the game, but his age and contract are the problem. He may not be movable, but after this year his actually salary drops down to $3 million (with the $4 million cap hit) so he could become more attractive come trade deadline time to a team looking for short term help and needing someone to eat up cap space while drawing a lower salary.

As things stand now, Kulemin will be given the shot to be a first line right winger. Behind him are Stempniak, Mayers and Orr. Hanson and Mitchell are the best known prospects here, but the player I am interested in seeing develop is Mikhail Stefanovich. Last year in Quebec junior hockey Stefanovich had 49 goals in 56 games, was a +30 and at age 19 he’s already 6’2 and 202.

With the exception of Blake, the contract situation looks good up front. Stempniak, Stajan, Ponikarovsky and Mayers are not part of the future. Poni and Stajan are likely immediate trade bait and may fit into a Kaberle package. The good news is that all four have contracts that expire at the end of this season. That represents $8 million of cap space that will be freed up. These players moving out of the organization will open up ice time for the kids coming up, and their salaries coming off the books open up cap space for another top six forward.

With Burke, the Leafs will stop the love affair with players that are really not part of a championship mix. Matt Stajan is a great example. I love him for his character and he’s a fine hockey player. But, is he a top two center for a championship team? No. Does he have the grit you want centering your third or fourth line? Not really. Unfortunately he’s just the type of nice kid that plays on a perennial Leaf team that keeps missing the playoffs and becomes a fan favorite.

These are the type of tough questions that Burke will ask at each roster spot. We will lose some of our favorite players over the years, but finally the goal is to build a cup contender.

Delfino? Maybe No.

2009-07-10T09:14:00.000-04:00

I think that we may be looking the wrong way when we consider Delfino to be a slam dunk to return to the Raptors. Instead of just worrying about team depth, what the Raptors also have to watch for is becoming too deep with players that need to be in the rotation.

NBA teams are based on a rotation and players function best when they know where they fit into the rotation. One of the strengths that Triano brought to the team was a commitment to a rotation so that players knew when they would be playing and what their role was. This gave a player like Bargnani a solid understanding of what his job is. Under Mitchell he was constantly being moved between different positions and he could not establish a mind set as to what he was supposed to be. It is very difficult to go out with your role being a finesse outside player one moment, and then go back out the next time and be an inside banger.

In some ways putting together an NBA team is simple. You only have five players on the court at one time and there are 48 minutes in a game. If you assign your starters an average 36 minutes a game each, that does not leave much playing time for your bench. Let’s break this down a little.

In the backcourt you can pencil Calderon in for 36 minutes a game playing the point. Wright and DeRozan will share the shooting guard spot eating up the 48 minutes there. This leaves Ukic to play the remaining 12 minutes. Douby ends up sitting on the bench and is an emergency player for injuries.

In the frontcourt Bosh, Bargnani and Turkoglu will average 36 minutes each. This leaves only 36 minutes to be shared by the remaining team. I think Nesterovic will be back with the Raptors since they do need an experienced big man to bang with the big boys. If he plays12 minutes and Reggie Evans adds his grit and rebounding for another 20 minutes a game, you are left with very little playing time for anyone else. Devean George can easily eat up those minutes without hurting your team.

While Delfino can fit into many roles, my worry is that he will demand more playing time to be effective, and without that his play and effort will start to drift. I believe that was his problem last time with the Raptors and I see that as a concern with bringing him back.

Colangelo is very aware of the salary implications going forward and what the team will need in budget room next year. As he has stated, he would be willing to overpay for a player that is willing to take a one year contract. I expect him to take his time and not jump on Delfino. If something happens quickly, I would not be surprised to see him make a last minute pitch to Anthony Parker for a one year deal at a bigger number then Cleveland is willing to offer. Parker could be a solid role player for the team and will not need the coddling that Delfino will to keep him positive. Parker can even play some point, especially when you can now run the offense through Turkoglu.

I like the look and rotation of the Raptors with the addition of Nesterovic, which I think will happen. I think Colangelo will be careful in picking up back end rotation pieces since you do not need attitude problems on the team.

The biggest exposure right now is Calderon going down with a nagging injury since I do not see Ukic starting for an extended time period. I see the Raptors going for a more experienced point guard that is capable of filling the starter’s role.

Hats Off to Colangelo

2009-07-09T09:55:00.001-04:00

Details of Colangelo’s dealings with Turkoglu and Marion are just coming out but from the sounds of it, Colangelo has played this beautifully. Yes, we already knew that Turkoglu was coming and Marion was leaving, but by engineering sign and trades for both players the Raptors regain the salary flexibility and bench depth that it appeared they would lose.

If Colangelo had let Marion leave without managing to do a sign and trade, and if he had just signed Turkoglu as a free agent, the Raptors would have had to renounce Parker and Delfino and they would not have been able to sign replacements at more then the NBA minimum. This would have forced the team to start DeRozan earlier then they would have liked, and left the team without experienced back ups for DeRozan and Turkoglu. As I mentioned on Monday, I think this was a risk worth taking, but Colangelo has now managed to take the risk out of the equation.

For starters, the sign and trades allow the Raptors the flexibility to re-sign Delfino if they choose to. They will likely also have the mid-level salary exemption left which will allow them to sign another quality depth player.

The moves however do not just end with this increased salary flexibility. The Raptors were also able to pick up Antoine Wright and Devean George from Dallas while giving up Humphries and Douby. Neither of the new players are stars, but they happen to fit specific Raptor needs. Antoine Wright can start at shooting guard giving DeRozan time to work his way into the NBA more gradually. Wright also is a change of pace to DeRozan in that he is a good outside shooter. At 6’7 he can also help out on the boards. Devean George plays small forward. He is a good defender and rebounder, so he fits as a back up to Turkoglu when defense is needed. If the Raptors bring Delfino back he is a back up at both wing positions and can serve as an emergency starter.

The other great thing about this move is that both Wright and George are on the last year of their contracts. Colangelo was not forced to pick up a bad contract with these moves. With Bosh’s unknown status after this year it is impossible to guess what the team’s needs will be a year down the road. We will also have a much better idea of the needs after we see how Ukic and DeRozan develop this year.

The loss of Douby and Humphries will not be noticed. Douby would have been the third point guard on the team and was really undersized to fill in at the two. Humphries is a nice player, but Evans will be taking his spot off the bench and Evans is not a “nice” player. When he comes on the court he will add the rebounding and toughness that the Raptors have lacked for years. Humphries also had two years left on his contract so his departure gives the team more cap flexibility next year. It would also not be surprising to see Nesterovic return to the Raptors in a reserve role at a very reasonable price. He loves Toronto and fits a need as a solid professional back up center.

In summary, great job Colangelo! In other Toronto sports news; Jays eat $15 million by dumping B.J. Ryan and receive nothing in return.

Halladay Future

2009-07-08T08:16:00.001-04:00

Lots of talk yesterday about Halladay’s Blue Jay days being numbered. J.P is confirming that he would listen to offers for Halladay, but he’s saying that this is just business as usual. In this case, I think it is anything but business as usual.

Roy Halladay is the professional athlete playing in Toronto that I have the most respect for. He is one of the very best pitchers in the majors. He is a no nonsense guy with a professional attitude and he loves playing in Toronto. He’s never complained when the team has gone bad and he’s been the anchor of our pitching staff for years. Without Halladay on the Jays, the stature of the team diminishes.

Having said this, I think the chances are great that Halladay will be moved before the trade deadline. As usual these days, the problem is economics.

In his interviews yesterday Halladay confirmed that he loves playing in Toronto, but he also wants to play for a winner, soon. Halladay is a free agent after next season, so that means that the Jays would have to show the potential to be a winner this season, or next. To me, the chances of that happening look very slim, in fact non-existent.

This year the Jays have overachieved. Yet at this moment they sit in sixth spot in the wild card race and are a full seven games behind. Last night they were forced to start another rookie pitcher, Rzepczynki, and got another surprising great start. The result unfortunately was another loss. They simply do not have the horses to make a playoff run. On the Jays staff Halladay is really the only proven major league pitcher. The others are kids with great promise who have done a super job, but Halladay stands alone as the only true major league starter on the roster.

The problem for the Jays is that they can not afford to improve the team and Halladay becomes a free agent after next season. With the state of the economy, it is doubtful that the Jays will be increasing their budget in a meaningful fashion over the next couple of years. What will be happening however is that Rios’ contract will go from $6.4 million this year, to $10.2, $12.5, $12.5 and $13 million the next four years. Worse, Wells will go from $5.1 million this year, to $16.2, $26.6, $24.6 and $24.6 million the next four years.

With B.J. Ryan’s annual salary of $12 million coming off the books after next season, the Jays can afford to match a Yankee type offer and sign Halladay. But how do the Jays build a winner while they are stuck with Rios and Wells earning 25% of the team’s salary? If the Jays did re-sign Halladay, they will have half of their payroll committed to three players and Halladay will be a 34 year old pitcher when that contract starts. Does that make any sense?

If the Jays hope to keep Halladay, JP will be beating the bushes for any team that is willing to take the Wells and Rios contracts off his hands. Rios has picked up recently and his contract is likely moveable as a salary dump. Wells however, at roughly $25 million per year starting in 2011, will likely be an albatross around the franchise’s neck for another four years.

I will hate to see Halladay go, but I can not see how the Jays can compete within their current budget with both Wells and Halladay on the roster in 2011. Fans do not like to think that far ahead, but I think that JP has to look at finding the perfect deal for Halladay that will get the Jays a quality young player and two can’t miss prospects in return. Those kids and the current crop of young pitchers can develop while we watch Wells play out his contract.

This is not the future for the Jays that I want to see, but that is where I think this road is taking us.

Leafs Build Foundation

2009-07-07T08:09:00.001-04:00

The first week of free agency has seen the Leaf signings focus on building a solid foundation for the future. Sure they took a run at Camalleri and likely were hoping the Sedins would test free agency, but when it came to putting pen to paper the focus has been on building the defense.

There are several things I like about this strategy. First, if you want to build a team with toughness and grit, building your defense like this makes great sense. You will now have either the likely Beauchemin / Schenn pairing, or Komisarek, or Exelby on the ice at all times. This means that you don’t necessarily have to worry about toughness on each forward line since you will always have someone on the ice to back them up.

With this type of defense your goaltending also improves. Opposing forwards have to keep their heads up as they head into the Leaf zone and the team’s crease now becomes a no parking zone. The goalie will have a better view of the puck and will be able to focus on the first shot. There will be less deflections in front of the net and rebounds will be quickly cleared. These defense upgrades should also improve the chance of the Leafs landing Gustavsson, maybe later today.

From a development and culture point of view, having players like Beauchemin and Komisarek in the dressing room will help create a professional and gritty team. While Schenn’s natural defensive talents would have let him play with an offensive player like Kaberle, there is so much more for him to learn at this level. If he is paired with a player like Beauchemin this should be great for his development.

At the moment the Leafs have an excess of quality defensemen. While some look at this as a problem, isn’t that a nice statement for Leaf fans to finally hear?

As we look to the next step we have to consider where the Leafs are in their rebuilding process. With these changes I can see the Leafs making a run at the playoffs next year, but the goal of a long playoff run is still likely two or three years away. With that in mind Kaberle is likely the best bet to be moved. This is not a slight at Kaberle and he would fit in great with these additions. However, he is the one player that could likely obtain a young top six forward that would still be in his prime in three years. The Kaberle / Kessel trade talk is not dead yet and this is the type of deal that the Leafs should be looking at making.

The other defenseman that I would love to move is Finger. I like Finger, but at $3.5 million per year, for three more years, he is too pricey as the 6 or 7 defenseman. They will need that cap space as they look to add skilled forwards during the next two years. Trying to move him will be a big challenge, but I would be happy to move him for a draft pick to get his contract off the books.

There has been talk of moving Van Ryn, but I like the fact that he is on the last year of his contract and would free up $2.9 million of cap space at the end of next season. He is also the type of player that a cup contender would look to add at the trade deadline so I would keep him for now.

If the Leafs can swing a Kaberle trade, I still love the look and depth of the defense. The pairings would be something like:
Van Ryn - Komisarek
Beauchemin - Schenn
White - Exelby

Your primary depth players would be Finger, Frogen and Stralman. I like this group today, and it is a defense that you can fine tune over the years.

With the foundation in place, let’s see what happens as Burke turns his focus to the offence.

Signing Turkoglu

2009-07-06T08:26:00.000-04:00

Turkoglu’s signing is both a big gamble by Colangelo for 2009 and a solid building block for the future. The downside of this move is that the Raptors will be stripping the team of much of the depth that Colangelo has always had on the team. They will be saying goodbye to Parker, will not be able to bring back Delfino, and DeRozan will likely be thrust into the starting rotation sooner then they would like. This also means goodbye to Shawn Marion.

The plan for the off season was to add grit to the team and athleticism to the wing positions. The addition of Evans and DeRozan were good moves in that direction while the Turkoglu signing is a step back. The move does however add a proven NBA veteran from a successful team. He is also a player that can create his own shot and is not afraid to take it with the game on the line. Both of these attributes were something that the team desperately needed and were skills that Marion could not bring to the table.

The other big issue this off season is the future of Chris Bosh. To have any hope of re-signing Bosh after this season the Raptors had to immediately improve upon last year’s record and move solidly into a playoff position. Turkoglu’s signing gives them that chance. If the team falters, or if Bosh decides to leave anyway, Turkoglu is a solid piece that the team can build with going forward.

Overall, his addition leaves the Raptors with a very interesting starting five and a dangerous lack of depth at the point guard and small forward positions. Bosh, Turkoglu and Bargnani give the Raptors great size up front, but limited athleticism. The one thing all three can do is shoot, so they will be a challenge for opposing teams to match up against. Calderon will be running the point, and if he is fully recovered and can avoid injuries they should have no problems there. DeRozan will likely be thrust into the starter’s role immediately, but with four good shooters on the floor with him he should be able to concentrate on his strengths which are defense, rebounding and slashing to the basket.

Having Turkoglu at the three spot is an improvement over Marion for this team. While Marion is more athletic and is a much better defender, he is not a shooter and would have put more pressure on DeRozan to hit from the outside. Turkoglu will draw the defense out which will give DeRozan and Bosh more room inside. He can also run the offense from the three which provides different looks for the opposition and frees up Calderon on occasion.

His lack of defense is a concern since that, and rebounding, have always been a concern with the Raptors. To help in this area the Raptors will count heavily on Iavaroni. His focus has always been defense and the Raptors will rely on him to mould this group of players into a solid defensive unit. The coaching combination of Triano and Iavaroni is perfect for this team due to their international background and ability to think outside of the box. The Raptors will definitely be an outside of the box team this year and this could well be a boom or bust season for the team.

Congratulations to Colangelo for pulling this signing off and being willing to take this gamble. The first two months of the season will be critical, so now its time for Triano and Iavaroni to get to work. Their season begins today.

Free Agency Countdown

2009-07-01T10:35:00.001-04:00

As of this writing the Sedins have not decided on what to do with the Canuck offer and Heatley is sitting on the fence about the Oilers deal.

The Heatley saga really disgusts me since he is the one that signed the rich long term deal with the Sens which included the no trade clause that he demanded. It is bad enough that he turned on the Sens by demanding a trade, but now that the Sens have found a willing trading partner he’s threatening to blow that deal by trying to pressure them into a lesser deal with the Rangers. I hope he upsets Melnyk to the point where the Sens sit the lad in the minors for the duration of his contract. However it is likely that Heatley will get his way and I see a trade later in the day moving him to the Rangers.

I really think Gainey blew it big time in agreeing to take on Gomez’s contract. Sure the Canadiens have tons of cap space left, but in this day and age you just do not commit $7.3 million of cap space for the next five years to a player that has never led a team and is coming off a very disappointing season. At that cap figure, Gomez will be expected to lead the Habs and that’s just not who Gomez is. He is a great compliment player if he has a good winger on his side and a strong system to play in. I can’t see this working out for the Habs. I think this contract will hang over their heads, though I can see them being able to move him during the last couple of years to a financially strapped team that will need his cap figure (and lower actually salary) to reach the cap floor. Today should be interesting to see what Gainey can do about picking up that scoring winger for Gomez.

I love Calgary’s move to sign Bouwmeester last night. I think it works for both the team and the player. He will love playing in Calgary and the salary and term seem reasonable for a young workhorse defenseman. I do see Calgary trying to move Phaneuf now since they do need more firepower up front to help Iginla.

I think, and hope, that the Sedins decide to stay in Vancouver. If that falls through I can see Burke making the move to pick them up and sign them to a five or six year deal. Despite the fact that I like the Sedins, I think that is committing to much money and term to two players that can not be separated or moved. My preference would be for Burke to save some of that money and pick up Cammalleri who is a top six forward. I also like the idea of Burke going after Colton Orr (at about $1 million per season) and Beauchemin to add some toughness and grit to the roster.

Now that Bouwmeester and Pronger have found homes, the attention should turn to Kaberle. I can see something happening there quickly. I also hear that Jack Johnson is in play and he would be a great addition for the Leafs. Other Leafs that may be moved include Stajan, Mayers, Kubina and White but those deals will likely occur later in the summer.

I normally hate players dithering over decisions but I’m ready to cut Gustavsson some slack here. I he just lost his mother and I understand that he is quite alone in trying to make this decision, so lets give him a few days to see how the free agency dust settles before he decides on his future. I still think that a Giguere Toskala swap is a possibility if Gustavsson does not sign with the Leafs.

Just wondering and maybe dreaming, if Gainey can’t find scorers in the free agency market to take his money play with Gomez, would he be willing to take Blake’s contract off our hands?

Kessel and RFA Issues

2009-06-30T09:14:00.001-04:00

Phil Kessel may well be the most interesting RFA on the market this year. He is only 21, has blazing speed, a great shot and is coming off a 36 goal season. You would think that this would be the type of player that a team would automatically look to re-signing. That’s what makes the Kessel saga so interesting from many angles.

First off, Kessel like most 21 year olds is not perfect. His game has holes and playing on a line with Andre Savard can inflate your goal scoring figures. That being said, Kessel is a great young asset that most teams would love to have and as such he is in for a big raise. The problem for the Bruins is that they are pushing for a cup now and have salary cap issues, so they may well not be able to re-sign Kessel. Being a contender now, they do not want to pick up futures for him, so a trade for a quality puck moving defenseman like Kaberle was attractive to them.

The Leafs on the other hand are looking to have a competitive team a few years down the road so moving a Kaberle for a young player like Kessel makes great sense. What makes it interesting for the Leafs is Kessel’s RFA status. Questions have been asked as to whether the Leafs would trade for Kessel without being sure that they can re-sign him. My answer is an immediate and loud yes.

Yes, you ask? You’d trade Kaberle for Kessel and he could leave as an RFA in a matter of days, and you still say yes? The reason for the yes is RFA compensation and how that effectively limits what another team would bid for Kessel. Remember, as an RFA the Leafs could match any team’s offer, but if the other team offered more then the Leafs were willing to match, then the Leafs could opt for compensation.

I would grade Kessel as about a $4 million player and would look to sign him for something in that range. If another team were to offer him $5 million a season the Leafs would have a choice of matching that salary, or accepting compensation which would be a 1st, 2nd and 3rd round draft choice. In fact any bid over $3.923 million would receive that compensation. If the competing offer went up to $5.3 million, that team would have to toss in another 1st round pick in addition to those draft choices. It is highly debatable if any team would be willing to give up the compensation for signing Kessel to a contract of $4 million or more. So for trading Kaberle, the Leafs would receive either Kessel at a contract that they feel is reasonable, or a minimum of three draft choices including a first rounder. To me there’s not much of a downside.

All the talk about teams conspiring not to tend offers to other teams RFA’s is partially true, but you can also see how the compensation side works against such offers sheets being tabled. For the Leafs, they are far better off to trade for Kessel while he is an RFA, then to wait and try to sign him as an RFA and give up a minimum of three top draft choices when they are in rebuilding mode.

One unfortunate thing about the RFA rules is that they work against the weaker teams in the league. The value of the Islanders 1st draft choice is many times more than the value of the 1st draft choice of a Pittsburgh, Detroit or San Jose. Toronto being near the bottom of the league is not likely to make offers for top RFA’s for this reason. If you see an RFA offer from the Leafs it will likely be for under $2.6 million where the compensation is only a 2nd round pick, or under $1.3 where the compensation is a 3rd rounder. For offers under $863,156 no compensation is due.

The salary cap, economic climate and RFA rules make this an interesting time for NHL managers.

Checking In On the Jays

2009-06-29T09:03:00.000-04:00

The toughest management job of all the major teams in Toronto could well be that of JP Ricciardi. While there is no official salary cap in baseball, the Jays do have a firm cap set by Rogers. The tough part for Ricciardi is that he is in the same division as the Yankees and Red Sox. The Jays compete with a budget of $80 million in salaries, while the Red Sox are at $121 million and the Yankees with a seemingly endless budget are over $200 million.

Not only can the Yankees, or Red Sox outbid the Jays for any player that they like, they also do not have to worry about being wrong or a pitcher blowing out their arm. Over the years the Yankees have made many wrong free agent decisions, but if the player fails, the Yankees just shrug their shoulders and pick up another high priced replacement.

The Jays do not have that luxury. To try and keep a nucleus together they are forced to gamble on signing some of their younger players with potential before they prove themselves. At the time, the signings of Alex Rios and Vernon Wells were greeted with great fan approval. Today, both players are under producing and their long term salary commitments hang over Toronto’s neck. Then you add B J Ryan, who earns $12 million dollars and is no longer your closer, and you have a quarter of your team’s salary taken up by players who are not performing where they should be. Worse, with the contracts that these players have, they are not movable so the Jays are stuck.

Do we blame J P for this? I really don’t think so. At the time of their signings, both Wells and Rios held potential. They were both excellent fielders, could hit with power and for average. They were both young and the Jays were tying them up for the prime of their careers. The alternative would have been to let them walk or wait until they fully proved themselves, but then you would have been competing with the Yankees, Mets or Red Sox for their services and we all know how that plays out.

This year has actually been a great and exciting one for the Jays. Their pitching staff has been decimated by injuries the last couple of years but the Jays have found more youth to replace these arms. Both Romero and Richmond are off to great starts with ERA’s under 4.00 and Tallet has also been a quality starter. Doc is off to another great season. Despite being a Jays fan, you almost feel sorry for Doc heading out there knowing that the team is in the middle of another lost season. Even the bullpen has shown surprises with Frasor and Downs growing into strong late inning pitchers.

While Rios and Wells have been the disappointments so far, their performance has been offset by the great start of Hill, Lind and Scutaro. Hill in particular is playing all star quality ball and hopefully he will be one player that they can keep long term if they can move some of the salaries around.

Storylines to be excited about include Halladay, Hill, Lind, Scutaro, Romero and Richmond. The disappointments are really only Ryan, Wells and Rios. That leaves the Jays story as a positive with a second half push to the playoffs, right?

Nope, not even close the way I see it. Even though we are only three games out of a wildcard spot, we are in fourth place in our own division as we sit this morning and in baseball there is only wildcard birth for the playoffs. We have both the Yankees and the Red Sox ahead of us and the tough part of our schedule hasn’t even started.

Are the fans excited? At the moment we are 25 out of 30 in home attendance in the majors so despite the quick start, the turnstiles are not spinning. I’d actually worry about the future of the franchise in Toronto, but the Jays are owned by Rogers, and I hear the television ratings are up and that is the big part of their investment.

Leafs Take Kadri

2009-06-27T07:25:00.001-04:00

A day of excitement and possible trades seemed to fizzle as the NHL draft yielded few surprises in the first round. This was especially true for the Leafs who tried to swing trades all day to move up in the draft and had that mix up with Boston over the Kaberle/Kessel deal. Even the hopes of the Leafs re-united the Schenn brothers did not happen when the Kings took Brayden at five and you could see a bit of the frustration in Burke’s face.

It would have been fun today to dissect all the moves that Burke made yesterday and whether the gambles where worth it. The story would have been about Burke and what he had accomplished and he would have been in the limelight. Despite his image, I do not believe that is what Burke is about. As head of the Leafs he has shown patience, and for the job of rebuilding the Leafs patience is a major requirement. There are no quick fixes with this team, and with salary cap it is all too easy to put yourself in a position that you can not easily recover from.

I did not expect the Leafs to take Kadri, but I love the choice. For a multi-cultural city like Toronto it is a great choice, but above all, for a hockey move it is a great choice. Kadri brings energy, skill, speed and character to the Leafs. Character seems to be an important component of what Burke is trying to bring to the Leafs and I applaud him for that. Kadri could be an impact player centering a line with a star winger in a few years. At worse he will be a high energy number two center with skill and a top penalty killer. Next year will be spent back in junior hockey and with the Canadian national team and then we can look toward him taking his shot at making the Leafs the following year.

As important as what Burke did with taking Kadri, is what Burke did not do in the first round. He did not take a step back and trade Schenn as part of a package to try and get Tavares. The Leafs are not in a position where they can move several assets, including Schenn, Kadri and Kaberle for the hope that Tavares will lead this team. Besides I’d rather have Schenn and Kadri lead this team instead of Tavares. Schenn and Kadri will be important building blocks for this franchise and Kaberle will be moved over the summer for additional pieces. The Leafs are not a quick fix and Burke is building a team, not trying to find a new hero for the Leaf fans to worship. Heck, Leaf fans are happy to worship a Tie Domi so that is not Burke’s goal.

I am also glad that Burke did not trade away pieces to move to take Luke’s brother. It would have been “neat” to have both brothers on the same team, but that also creates an immediate clique on the team and a dynamic that is not team focused. The Schenn boys both appear to have great character, but you do want a part of your team plan focusing on how to keep them together over the years. We already have an extreme case of that happening in Vancouver with the Sedins.

I am also glad that Burke did not waste the seventh pick for a Cowen or Kassian. We already have our shutdown defenseman in Schenn so Cowen is not a need for this team and Kassian is not a top ten pick from where I sit. Burke will pick up some of that abrasive edge in later rounds during this draft and he will add to that in the summer. Wasting a number seven pick on that would have been a shame. There is a difference between building a tough team with grit and character and just putting together a group of bullies. Burke understands that and with his handling of last nights draft I am confident that is the direction that the Leafs are moving in.

Raptors Right On

2009-06-26T08:29:00.001-04:00

Draft night fell perfectly for the Raptors when Minnesota drafted their second point guard of the night in Jonny Flynn at number six last night. With the Knicks or Warriors sure to grab Stephen Curry with one of the next two choices, the Raptors were guaranteed that either DeMar DeRozan or Jordan Hill would be available to the Raptors with pick nine.

As projected in this blog on June 22, the Raps had DeRozan targeted as their pick and only the falling of Hill down the board would have altered those plans. Hill did drop as we thought, but with the Knicks losing out on Curry they snapped Hill up with the eight pick which left DeRozan to fall right into the Raptors lap.

The pick of DeRozan deals with the one of the Raptors major holes which was the lack of athleticism at the two spot. Not only does he bring great athleticism, he also packs all that into a 6’6, 211 pound frame. Always remember in basketball, that size is one thing that you can’t teach. DeRozan only had one season at USC so he comes in pretty raw. With the Raptors having two great teaching coaches in Triano and Iavaroni, this could be a perfect fit for DeRozan as well. With Iavaroni’s focus being defense, he should have a great student to help utilize his size and quickness to guard some of the NBA’s top two guards straight up. Offensively his year started off slow in college, but he picked that up during tournament time where he averaged over 16 points and just under 7 rebounds a game. DeRozan brings a slash to the basket kind of explosiveness that the Raptors desperately need and now has to focus on his outside shooting to round out his game. Again you can teach a player to shoot much easier then you can teach a player to be quick and slash to the basket.

The starter at the two spot at the beginning of the year should either be Parker or Delfino depending on which one returns. With DeRozan on board, the Raps no longer need to try and sign both. Triano already has stated that he doesn’t think that DeRozan can learn from just sitting on the bench, so expect him to start earning his minutes early and I would not be surprised to see him starting a few months into the season.

From what I’ve heard of DeRozan I think that he has the right attitude to earn those minutes and to push himself. Comparisons to Vince Carter’s potential do not scare him and a major reason that he left college after one year was to start earning money so that he can help with the costs of his mother’s medical treatments for lupus.

It was nice to see the Raptors also reaffirm their faith in Calderon and Ukic by not trying to trade back into the first round when point guard Jrue Holiday fell all the way down to 17. The Raptors had interest in Holiday, but instead of going for additional insurance at the point they have opted to focus on filling their immediate need at the two which means a team with more potential for this year.

With this move I can see the Raptors intensifying their desire to hold on to Marion. If Colangelo can not get Marion signed to a contract that makes sense, expect a sign and trade fairly early that brings back help at small forward. As I’ve said before, the start of this season is all important to the Raptors so they need to put the pieces in place quickly so that Triano and Iavaroni can start putting this puzzle together.

Leaf Pieces

2009-06-25T09:39:00.000-04:00

Its almost funny reading how the Leafs have nothing in their cupboard to make meaningful trades with going into the draft. What fans seem to forget is that all teams do not have the same objectives. We are in a salary cap NHL so some teams have contracts on the books that they would love to move so that they can help their team elsewhere. Other teams are struggling in this economic climate and need to cut costs, or need to make a big splash to attract a big name talent to help sell tickets.

So for starters, the Leafs have some assets that do not involve players on their roster. They have the flexibility to take on some contracts that other teams may want to dump. They have the financial strength to be able to burry some contracts in the minors which effectively allows them to go beyond the cap. They also have no concern about selling tickets and have a fan base that is willing to accept a major rebuild, so they have the flexibility to do what is right without regard to selling tickets.

Those are all big pieces for Burke to use. In addition they have some players on the roster that are somewhat attractive. Many teams would love to add Kaberle who immediately strengthens a team and is on a reasonable contract. Some teams would even like to add Kubina for the immediate help that he provides and is only a one year salary commitment. Other players like Grabovski, Stajan and White are players that are not in the Leafs long term plans, but have value and are not tied into big dollar contracts.

Let’s take a look at a few teams and see what components are there for a trade.

Tampa is a team struggling with what to do with Lecavalier. They would love to trade the $10 million per year salary commitment, but can they afford to do that when Lecavalier is the face of the team in Tampa? The Leafs could help Tampa by taking Malone and Meszaros off their hands which removes a commitment of over $8 million per year for the next four years off Tampa’s books. What is that flexibility worth to Tampa and how much more would the Leafs have to add to that to get Tampa to flip picks first round picks with the Leafs?

In Atlanta, Kovalchuk is one year away from free agency. This could be Chris Bosh kind of case where if Atlanta does not improve next year, will Kovalchuk not resign. How much will Kane or Brayden Schenn help Atlanta next year picking at four, versus what they could get with the Leafs pick at seven? Giving the Thrashers a Kaberle or Kubina might be enough to get Atlanta to flip picks with the Leafs and they might even be willing to take Blake off the Leafs hands for the immediate help next year.

LA has loads of strength up the middle and is trying to land a high profile player like Heatley or Lecavalier. Doughty is their stud on defense and there have already been rumblings about them looking at moving Johnson since he will be looking for a big salary bump for next season. Maybe the Leafs can get a young talented player like Johnson for their blue line if they are willing to also take the $4 million per year that the Kings will be paying Handzus for the next two years. LA’s pick at five could also be in play here and allow the Leafs to pick Brayden Schenn.

Anaheim is committed to Hiller as their starting goalie and are desperate to move Giguere off the books who will earn $6 and $7 million the next two years as the back up. The Leafs could flip Toskala, who only has one more year left at $4 million to Anaheim if they would give the Leafs the 15th overall pick for one of Toronto’s picks later in the draft. Giguere would be reunited with his goaltending coach and would be the Leafs goalie for two years while they groom his replacement.

Yes I do think there are moves to be made for Toronto and they have some intriguing pieces once we start to understand the motivation of the other teams.

Reinsdorf Offer

2009-06-24T09:12:00.000-04:00

They tell us we’re going to have an offer by Friday. First off you have to love the timing of this. On Friday the NHL has their annual draft and now the Reinsdorf offer is scheduled for the same day. At first blush this seems like the league is again pre-empting its own big show by having both events occur on the same day. However, when you think about this, it really is not a bad idea. About the only market that cares about the Coyote story is the Toronto area and on Saturday morning you know that our media will be all over the draft and the Leafs. So Friday is a perfect day for the offer to be made if you want to minimize media scrutiny.

So instead of spoiling my Saturday by trying to deal with both issues, let’s get the Reinsdorf offer out of the way first. The most important thing to watch in this offer is what the new lease deal is with Glendale. Balsillie’s legal team will be all over this, and if the details of the new lease deal are not spelled out up front you can bet that they will be after the courts to make this public knowledge.

I do not think that you will find large subsidies in this lease. Arizona law prohibits such subsidies to private companies, and politically such subsidies would not be palatable to the taxpayers of Glendale in this economic climate. Realizing that no money would come to Glendale by forcing the Coyotes to fold, I believe that the new lease will contain a buyout clause where Reinsdorf would be able to break the lease if certain attendance figures are not met. Should such a clause be exercised down the road, Reinsdorf may well have an understanding with the NHL that he will be able to deduct the cost of breaking the lease from any relocation fee.

Once all this is all out in the open I believe that Balsillie’s lawyers will demand to have the opportunity to make a bid based on the same Glendale lease concessions. If they are smart, and patient, they will be willing to make a new bid without the stipulation of being able to move the franchise. A buyout clause in the lease would already make the Coyotes a moveable franchise. Remember, Balsillie was willing to buy the Penguins without a guarantee that he could move them to Ontario. He was willing to keep the team in Pittsburgh if a new arena deal was reached. What broke that deal was the late NHL demand that he sign an amendment to the purchase agreement promising that he would not move the team even if a new arena was not built.

In Nashville, he again was willing to buy the team and move it once attendance figures were not reached and the lease could be broken. His problem there was that his excitement got the better of him and he began selling seasons tickets in Hamilton for a team that he did not yet own, in a market that was not yet approved.

While Balsillie’s behavior has poisoned his reputation with the NHL governors, what he has going for him here is that the judge will be the final one to approve the sale of the Coyotes. If Balsillie’s deal is identical to Reinsdorf’s in regards to terms and conditions, it will be difficult for the NHL not to approve both deals in principle without showing malice towards Balsillie.

This would put the decision in the hands of the judge and that is where Balsillie needs it to be. The big question is whether Balsillie can stomach playing this game and stop proclaiming what he intends to do. If he can keep his mouth shut, I think he has a play to make here. Once he owns the team, and once the attendance figures are not met in Glendale, he can then buy out the lease and make his case for his new market.

Balsillie’s exposure with this strategy is that prior to the lease in Glendale being bought out the NHL could fast track expansion to southern Ontario. What the NHL has to be careful with is to be above board in its dealings with Reinsdorf. Balsillie’s lawyers will be all over the details and all documents that pertain to the sale must be filed with the court. Balsillie’s one big advantage is that this sale will be settled in the courtroom, not the boardroom. The question is, will he be willing to play the game?

NHL Mock Draft

2009-06-23T07:19:00.000-04:00

With the heat starting to build on this year’s draft, here is my view on how things could turn out if all goes right for Burke and his plan.

1. NY Islanders Victor Hedman D
Islanders receive a little sweetner from the team picking at number two and take the surest bet in the draft. Size, mobility and the ability to anchor the defense for years.

2. Toronto (from Tampa) John Tavares C
Burke gets his man. Leafs flip picks with Tampa trading Kaberle, Stajan, Grabovski and their 7 pick for the big contracts of Malone, Meszaros and the number 2 pick.

3. Colorado Matt Duchene C
Safest bet up front with speed to burn and a more advanced all round game than Tavares. May well be the best offensive player taken in the draft.

4. Atlanta Evander Kane LW
A solid pick that the fans will love. Aggressive with loads of offensive skills that may well replace Kovalchuk as the face of the franchise in a few years.

5. Ottawa (from LA) Brayden Schenn C
Tampa Bay decides to keep Lecavalier, so Kings swing a trade for Heatley as their marquee player and flip picks with the Sens. Schenn brother rivalry will play out for years to come in the battle of Ontario.

6. Phoenix Jared Cowen D
Imposing size combined with skating skills make him a great pick as a future shut down defenseman. If Leafs don’t move up, this could be a target for Burke.

7. Tampa Bay (from Toronto) Oliver Ekman-Larsson D
Would love it if Cowen is still here, but if he’s not, Tampa sticks with its need on defense and takes the next best defenseman. Some Kaberle like skills with more size.

8. Dallas Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson LW
Modano is nearing the end of the road so Dallas is thrilled to select a player with flash and a great offensive upside.

9. LA Kings (from Ottawa) Scott Glennie RW
With strength down the middle already, the Kings pass on Kadri and add depth to their wings with this solid two way player.

10. Edmonton Nazem Kadri C
A speed player for the speed team that the fans will just love as he fills out and adds strength to his body.

Skipping down to number 15, the Leafs make a trade with Anaheim. The Leafs agree to pick up J S Giguere and the remaining two years of his $6 million cap hit along with the number 15 pick. Going to Anaheim are Toskala with only one year left at $4 million and Ian White. With the number 15 pick, the Leafs select 6’3 defenseman John Moore. If you don’t know who he is, in two to three years you will love this pick.

Raptors Draft Week

2009-06-22T07:15:00.000-04:00

Let’s take a look at the Raptors off season, and so far only one real move. That was the trade acquiring Reggie Evans for Jason Kapono. There are two things I like about this trade. First off, Bryan Colangelo does not fall in love with his moves to the point that he won’t change direction. Kapono was a big free agent signing for the Raptors, but it simply has not worked out unless you’re big on getting a Raptor into the skills competition.

The Raptors are not a drive to the basket, bang inside kind of team, so the openings for Kapono outside do not exist. Without his shot fitting naturally into the offense, there really isn’t a big role for him here since his defense is a liability and he can not create his own shot. Bryan knows this and was very fortunate to be able to move Kapono for a piece that the Raptors can really use.

In picking up Reggie Evans, they get a bit of a Charles Oakley light. A number that doesn’t look impressive is the 4.6 rebounds per game, but when you realize that Evans only played 14.4 minutes a game last year that’s not a bad number at all. Numbers aside, the best thing about Evans is that he’s not liked by the other players in the NBA and that is a good thing. What Evans brings is a grit that will make the Raptors a lot less easy to play against. He is also respected for his work ethic so he will not be afraid to speak up in the locker room if one of the boys are dogging it. Make no mistake about it, Evans is not going to be a star player on the Raptors, but he is a real step in the right direction. It also helps that he gives the Raps a bit more salary flexibility.

One thing we will be able to learn on draft night is what the Raps think of Calderon and Ukic. Calderon is a good point guard who takes care of the ball and can be trusted to run the offense. He is adequate as a starter, but is not really an all star. The only concern I have is his tendency to pick up nagging injuries. That brings us to Ukic and whether the Raps brain trust believes that he can handle the back up roll and be a fill in starter. If they are high on Ukic they do not need to address the point guard spot with their first pick in the draft. If they have concerns, then a player like Brandon Jennings or Jonny Flynn might be in their sites. Picking one of these two players won’t help the Raps much next year, but either could be their point guard of the future if that’s there long term plan.

If the Raps are willing to roll the dice with Calderon and Ukic, I see them looking at trying to fill their need to get more out of the 2/3 positions. At their draft spot, DeMar DeRozan would be a great pick if he’s still available. Since DeRozan may be gone when the Raps pick, another possibility with more immediate help but less upside is Gerald Henderson. He will be available when the Raps pick and they might even be able to slide down a few spots if he’s their choice.

One name that I’ve been seeing slip down some draft boards is Jordan Hill. If he’s available when the Raps pick they’d have to toss all the other plans to the side and snap him up. Being able to snare Hill would also help the Raps in position for the post CB4 era which I think is where that issue will play out.

The other piece to watch is what happens with Marion. Will the Raps be able to sign him to a reasonable contract and go with a Bosh/Bargnani/Marion front court, or what can they engineer with a trade? The key for this season is to get all the questions answered early and let Triano know what he’s dealing with from day one of training camp. If the team starts well the Bosh questions can be put to the side, but if the team falters out of the gate the Bosh questions will start immediately and the season could get ugly real quickly.

For draft night, my sense is that the Raps would love to get DeMar DeRozan and that they are more likely to slide back in this draft if their target player(s) are not available then they are to move up.

Thinking Three Way

2009-06-21T09:19:00.000-04:00

Everyone does mock drafts this time of year, but let me take a shot at a blockbuster draft day trade. Heading into the draft I think there is a trade to be made for the Leafs involving Tampa and LA, so how about a blockbuster.

When looking at any trade you have to look at the motivation for each team. Usually the teams involved in a trade are trying to achieve different things, so each team can get some of what they want. What helps get the Leafs involved is the ability to take on some bad contracts which they should be willing to do, if they also get assets that fit with their long term goals.

First let’s look at the Kings. Rumors came out a week ago with talk of the Kings being willing to move Jack Johnson and their 5th pick for Chris Pronger. That move didn’t make sense to me because of Pronger’s age and salary. However, with Doughty as their stud defenseman of the future, I can see them moving Johnson before they have to give him his big contract, if they can pick up the high priced superstar they want to be the face of their franchise. Ok, that was a long way of saying if they can get Vincent Lecavalier. I see the Kings being willing to move Johnson, Handzus and their 5th pick, for Lecavalier and a young defenseman with potential like Ian White. The Kings would love someone to pick up Handzus and his $4 million cap hit for the next two years since they already have Kopitar and Stoll that they would slot in as their two and three centers behind Lecavalier. Salary wise these deal is basically a wash for the Kings, and they pick up the face of their franchise that they can market.

Tampa looks like a team that is a world away from where they were just one short year ago. Last they were the cowboys of the league with their new owners throwing around money to take their team the next step. That didn’t quite work out did it? Today they’re an organization in disarray and just over one week away from having Lecavalier’s $10 million no trade contract kicking in. They’re also bogged down with long term commitments to Malone (6 more years at $4.5 million per) and Meszaros (5 years at a back loaded $4 million). What they have working for them is Stamkos and the number two pick this year.

I’d like to see Tampa give up Lecavalier, Malone and Meszaros, and pick up Kaberle, Kubina and Grabovski. Talent wise this may not be ideal since they are giving up the best player in the deal, but it saves Tampa over $8 million in salary next year and more importantly gets them out from under three long term contracts. You may laugh at them giving up Lecavalier, but I think a long term deal at $10 million per year is something the current owners cannot afford to commit to. As to the future, they still have Stamkos and will be able to add either Tavares or Hedman which is not bad at all.

What would all this do for the Leafs? They would lose Kaberle, Kubina, Grabovski and White, while picking up Johnson, Meszaros, Malone, Handzus and the 5th pick in this year’s draft. This is an addition of $11 million to the Leafs salary when you figure out the cost of signing Johnson to an extension. That would pretty much take the Leafs out of the bidding for the major free agents for this year, but it gives them a nucleus that I like. The defense would have three young horses in Johnson, Schenn and Meszaros. Up front Handzus and Malone are useful but expensive, but by drafting at 5 and 7 we can look at picking up two forwards like Brayden Schenn and Magnus Svensson-Paajarvi.

There’s risk and reward for all sides in this proposed deal, but I think it helps all the teams get something that they are looking for. Its likely much too big to pull off by next Friday, but let’s see if any of these pieces get moved.

Sedins, No Trade Times Two

2009-06-20T08:33:00.000-04:00

So the Sedin brothers are asking for 12 year contracts with an annual cap hit of $5.3 per player, per season. I love them as hockey players, and they would look great in the Leafs blue and white, but I wouldn’t touch that deal with a ten foot pole.

The $5.3 million per season is a good number. It would be an advantage to the club next year, likely a bit of a pain for a year or two while the league cap number goes down, and then again a good number for a couple more years until their age catches up to them, or they run into injuries. After that you’d have a cap hit of over $10 million per year tied up on two players who are approaching age 40 and who can not be traded.

I’ve heard the argument that the cap will be way up by then, but I must have missed the guaranteed economic forecast for 10 years out, and the guarantees on NHL revenues when we still have struggling teams in the sun belt. Though I must admit that Balsillie / Bettman court case should be dying down by then, maybe.

The point that really concerns me about any deal with the Sedins is that you have to take both of them. Sure I’d love to have both of them on my team today, but what I have a major push back on is that I have to take them as a package.

With the Sedins looking upon themselves as a package, they are basically demanding two no trade contracts since the contracts that they sign will not allow them to be split up. Would I consider a 12 year no trade contract for any one person? Well, maybe Zetterberg, but maybe not. But I definitely would not consider a 12 year no trade contract for two players.

Being in Leaf country, we have all lived through the pain of no trade contracts when they start to go bad. The Leafs have wanted to move Tucker, Kaberle, Sundin and Kubina recently in deals that would have greatly helped the team. If these four did not have no trade contracts the Leafs would likely have Mike Richards, Chris Higgins, additional high draft picks, whatever San Jose was going to pay for Kubina and not have Tucker on the books for another three years at $1 million dollars each. We’d have more youth today and Burke would be looking at next weeks draft with may more cards to play. None of those trades were possible because each of these players had no trade contracts.

I’ve read suggestions that a five year deal at a slightly higher cap hit would be worth doing with the brothers. Maybe I’d look at it since they’d only be 33 by the time the deal ends, but I think I’d take a pass on it simply because I think we have to make a break with no trade contracts if possible. The Kaberle and McCabe contracts looked good in their day too, but you can’t project how your team will change and what you may want to do over that length of time.

It was great to hear the Niedermayer brothers’ attitude towards playing together. They said that they’d love to continue playing on the same team, but they realize that it may not be possible so they will play wherever their careers take them.

In today’s salary cap NHL, I don’t think you can afford to tie up that much money on two players that you can’t move. My suggestion is pass on the Sedins, and if we want a brother act in Toronto, let’s go get Brayden Schenn.

NHL Draft Minus One Week – Leaf Thoughts

2009-06-19T06:44:00.000-04:00

With one week to go all the GM’s are focused on what may be the most important two weeks of the upcoming hockey season. From next Friday’s draft we’re less then a week to free agency, and a week after that most of the big names should be gone and the lions share of the hockey budgets committed.

Who to listen to and who to believe? That’s easy, nobody. This is the time for misdirection about what you’re trying to do while setting the groundwork for how you’re going to execute your true plan. The problem is you’ve got thirty GM’s all working their own plans so your plan has to be fluid in its detail, but true to your long term goal.

A few wildcards always make life more interesting. First we’ve got Vinny Lecavalier who’s no trade clause kicks in on July 1 and will commit Tampa Bay to $10 million for the next seven years, if they don’t trade him in the next twelve days. With Tampa’s financial problems I don’t see the logic of committing that much money to one player. They have Stamkos who made great strides towards the end of last year as the face of the franchise in the future, and would get either Tavares or Hedman if they keep the number two pick in the draft. Logic tells me they move him to a team like the Kings that appear to want the star appeal of Lecavalier for some cheaper talent and depth. Getting rid of that contract will also make the team more attractive to a potential buyer if the team goes up for sale in the next year or two.

The second wild card is Heatley and his trade demand. It looks like Murray wants to get that done by the draft so that should keep things hopping going into draft night. Burke is bang on about not wanting to get involved with Heatley. All this talk about Burke being a hypocrite with his stance on Heatley when he signed Pronger years ago is meaningless. When you look at an athlete, you look at their drive to succeed on the ice and whether you trust them to be a part of you team. Trusting Pronger to perform in Anaheim was a no-brainer. Trusting Heatley to perform with a rebuilding team under the glare of Toronto’s media would require Burke to have no brain.

I hope that Burke is bluffing about trying to move up to get Tavares. I think the price will be way too high and Tavares is not a lock to be a franchise player. Unless the price to move to get Tavares drops, its too big of gamble to take. Picking at seven you will still pick up a great hockey asset. Best case, Brayden Schenn might still be there, worse case you’ll get either Magnus Svensson-Paajarvi or Jared Cowen. Any of these pieces would be a great addition for the Leafs and not cost the Leafs a thing.

What I’d be trying to do is pick up a second pick as high as possible in the first round. Assets that I’d look at moving are Kaberle, Grabovski and one of the second round picks that we acquired. What the Leafs can also do is take on a bad contract such as Ryan Malone, especially if they are giving up Kaberle’s contract. A direct deal with Tampa might be a possibility if they are desperate to drop salary and pick up assets that help immediately (Kaberle and Grabovski) but that’s likely shooting too high since you want to keep your existing first round pick. Instead, a three way deal involving Tampa and the Kings might make more sense since the Kings have an interest in Lecavalier and Toronto’s ability to take on contracts could be a big advantage in brokering a deal between those too. I’d rather have both the Kings pick at 5 and the Leafs pick at 7, then paying more and giving up our 7 pick to move up to Tampa’s number 2 pick. Picking at 5 and 7 would be great, and it would also give Burke an opportunity to trade the 5 pick to try and move to 4 or 3 either Duchene or Kane would be available.

If this can be done, the Leafs could have a possible blue chip nucleus of Luke Schenn and two of either Brayden Schenn, Duchene, Kane or Svensson-Paajarvi. When you add the potential of the two collegians that Burke picked up earlier, we’d have a very talented young core group that can grow and develop over the next few seasons.

Whatever happens, I think the next week will go a long way to determining what the future of the Leafs will look like. Sure it won’t be easy, but I’d be shooting for a second pick in the top 10 instead of trying to roll the dice on Tavares.

Whichever way it goes, I think Burke might be able to pull off some fireworks by the end of draft night.

Coyotes, What Now?

2009-06-18T08:45:00.001-04:00

Now that we have the first big court ruling and have heard lots of posturing, let’s take a look at where we really are and where this is likely to go.

The way I like to look at this is to cut through the spin from all sides and look at some realities. The biggest reality is that it does not appear that any purchaser will be willing to commit to running a team in Glendale for the long term. The NHL has been trying to find such a buyer for a long time, and the financials of the Coyotes show that this does not make sense with the present state of the Glendale arena lease.

Balsillie’s major play was to try and force a quick auction where he hoped to be the only bidder. His major concern was not a potential local purchaser since I don’t think such an animal exists in the desert. However, his proposed timing for the auction would have made it hard for another group to join the auction with a bid to move the team. Don’t get me wrong, there are many groups that would love to do just that, but not many of these groups would want to join an auction that the NHL is opposed to. Unlike Balsillie, other groups planning to move a hockey team into southern Ontario plan to do it through the front door and have no desire to antagonize Bettman with an end run for the Coyotes.

Balsillie’s other hope may have been to get the NHL to turn down his ownership request, or his relocation request, and open the door to anti-trust legislation. The NHL wisely did not bite on this, and the quick timing that Balsillie’s proposal put upon the judge forced him to do that work for the NHL by dismissing Balsillie’s initial motion. At this point Balsillie has not been rejected by the NHL and anti-trust is not an issue.

What Balsillie has gained is the fact that the judge now is running the bankruptcy and not the NHL. What Balsillie has lost is the sense of urgency since he stated that he needed his purchase to be completed by June 29 to enable the transfer to Hamilton by next season. This deadline will pass and that will enable the judge and the NHL to work in a more controlled manner towards a sale.

The NHL’s dilemma is that nobody will commit long term to Glendale, but it already knows that. What the NHL will look for is a deal (likely with Reinsdorf) where the purchaser buys the team and officially agrees to keep the team in Glendale. For that to happen, a modification will have to be made to the Glendale lease to make it acceptable to the new owner.

This brings up the next major issue since one important item that was not ruled on by the judge was the Coyote’s ongoing lease with the city of Glendale. The powers that be in Glendale must realize that the Coyotes can not survive in their current location without financial subsidies. While they may like to do this, the problem is they likely can not. Politically, the taxpayers of Glendale would likely not agree to a $14-20 million subsidy for the new owner and legally such a deal would probably violate the state’s gift laws which limit such subsidies.

If Glendale sticks to its guns, no buyer will be found and the team may well fold with Glendale getting nothing. The most likely solution is for Glendale to agree to an amendment of the lease that would let the new owner move the team with a penalty of say $30 million if certain attendance figures are not met during the next two years. The local politicians can then use that money to impress their taxpayers and help with their own re-election chances.

These negotiations are likely being carried out at this very moment and will be critical to the NHL’s hopes of announcing a purchaser who will “officially” keep the team in Glendale.

To find the biggest loser in this scenario we just have to look under the bus, because that would be where the NHL has thrown him. The loser here is the current owner, Jerry Moyes. The NHL has already stated that they will find a new owner that will satisfy all legitimate creditors. They may as well of said all creditors except Jerry Moyes. Some of the Balsillie money that would have gone to Moyes will instead be put aside for the future buyout of the Glendale lease and the overall purchase price will be less since Moyes will not be deemed to be a legitimate creditor. Balsillie’s lawyers have already jumped on this and are trying to alert other owners of struggling NHL teams that they could be the next ones to be thrown under the same bus when the time comes from them to sell their teams.

If it plays out this way, then the NHL will be able to go before the court with their approved purchaser. At that time Balsillie may well come back with his revised bid which will be for more money, but will have more uncertainty associated with it. At that point Balsillie’s lawyers will try to uncover the side deals that are in place and that could get quite nasty and embarrassing for the NHL and the new purchaser and anti-trust could become an issue. This potential threat could be what Balsillie needs to get back in the game for the Coyotes.

Maybe that is Balsillie’s Plan B.